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Fellow retards,
I noticed that this sub is going to hit 2 million people soon, and I have decided to put aside my project assignments to write this DD (albeit more towards psychologically) on why luck is extremely important in the stock market, and what you can do to potentially get in favor of luck. Before I start, I want to congratulate you on being here. You have came a long way in life, and there’s more to come. Be happy.
TLDR at the last paragraph.
I want to talk mainly 3 things; luck, the psychology behind investing and what you should do to maximize profits.
Luck
In the book 'The Drunkard's Walk', under chapter of 'Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion', and I quote: "In 1978, Koppett revealed a system that he claimed could determine, by the end of January every year, whether the stock market would go up or down in that calendar year. His system had correctly predicted the market, he said, for the past eleven years. Of course, stock-picking systems are easy to identify in hindsight; the true test is whether they will work in the future. Koppett's system passed that test too: judging the market by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it worked for eleven straight years, from 1979 through 1989, got it wrong in 1990, and was correct again every year until 1998. But although Koppett's predictions were correct for a streak of eighteen out of nineteen years, I feel confident in asserting that his streak involved no skill whatsoever. Why? Because Leonard Koppett was a columnist for Sporting News, and his system was based on the results of the Super Bowl, the championship game of professional football. Whenever the team from the (original) National Football league won, the stock market, he predicted, would rise."
In the book 'Fooled by Randomness', the Prologue mentioned "...luck disguised and perceived as nonluck (that is, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (that is, determinism). "
In the book ‘The Black Swan’ by Taleb Nassim Nicholas, Page 119 mentioned " A successful person will try to convince you that his achievements could not possibly be accidental, just as a gambler who wins at roulette seven times in a row will explain to you that the odds against such a streak are one in several million, so you either have to believe some transcendental intervention is in play or accept his skills and insight in picking the winning numbers." More often than not, luck is rarely on your side. I can provide many other articles, but I believe you get the point. To emphasize it, "the habit of mistaking luck for skill is most prevalent - and most conspicuous - and that is the world of markets."
So why am I saying all these? What I am trying to imply is, do appreciate your GME gains, or whatever astronomical gains that you have. These gains, more often than not, are results of extremely lucky happenstances, where most people are incapable of harnessing them. Yes, there are tons of good DDs. But you yourselves are incredibly lucky to be part of WSB, and personally reading the DDs yourselves, and lucky enough to decide that you would be retarded enough to take the risk. You should be happy and grateful about it, because like I said, this is hugely, and heavily dependent on luck. Humans are flawed, because we have the tendency to look for specific causes that lead to effects. We often find it hard to accept that an event can be the result of total randomness, but sometimes it is. In financial forecasting, several times random volatility is mistaken for accurate prediction. In a group of many analysts, it is normal to expect that someone's predictions will turn out to be true (u/DeepFuckingValue). So, in case you get way too ahead of yourselves thinking you are absolutely a genius for having triple percentage gains in your portfolio, remember you're most likely just lucky. And since you're lucky, be appreciative and do not be complacent.
Psychology behind Investing
Several studies have fooled people into believing they are in control of something they actually have no control over. In fact, human decision-making shows systematic simplifications and deviations from the tenets of rationality (‘heuristics’) that may lead to suboptimal decisional outcomes (‘cognitive biases’). There are currently three prevailing theoretical perspectives on the origin of heuristics and cognitive biases: a cognitive-psychological, an ecological and an evolutionary perspective. To simplify that, it basically means that cognitive biases arise from intrinsic brain mechanisms that are fundamental for the working of our neural networks. Your mind is always on the cautious side of things, because it is trying to protect you.
Remember a time when you were very near the edge of a building/cliff, and all of a sudden you feel hypersensitive to the surrounding around you? You are aware of every rocks and stones that might sabotage you. Another example can be that you shiver when peeing, because your body is exaggerating the signal that you are rapidly losing body heat, and is trying to shiver up the muscle fiber to keep you warm, etc. You get the idea.
This unfortunately, applies in investing as well. Your mind will inevitably forces you to be on the safer side. A dip? Oh no... you panic. But relax, that is normal. In my last point, I will explain what you can do to overcome it.
What you can do to stay calm?
So now you know that it is in human nature to be a paper handed bitch. The first step is realizing that your own neural networks are playing a huge part in giving you a paper hand. When you realized that it is your own mind that is keeping you on the safer side, perhaps you can be more self-aware. Being impatient in the market is the worst mistake that you would commit while investing in the stocks. You have to know that if you do not have good patience in the market then you would find difficulty in getting the right stocks for your investment. You have to finally take your own decisions when you wish to select the stocks. Remember however, you do have to be lucky to hit the jackpot on certain investments as per my first point.
Confirmation bias is also a bitch. As philosopher Francis Bacon put it in 1620, "the human understanding, once it has adopted an opinion, collects any instances that confirm it, and though the contrary instances may be more numerous and more weighty, it either does not notice them or else rejects them, in order that this opinion will remain unshaken." This happens very often in WSB, and I want you to be cautious as well. To show you how easy confirmation bias is, imagine I have 5 numbers here. After presenting you these numbers, I want you to guess what is the rule of the game. Here are the 5 numbers: 4 6 8 10 12. What will your next 3 numbers be? What is the rule of the game? The rule is: Increasing Numbers, the next 3 numbers can be 13 14 15 Most of you might have guessed "increasing even numbers and provided with 14 16 18, when in fact it is not.
Luck does not solely come from deciding whether to listen to another retard's DD on a thread, and YOLO-ing your life savings onto some stocks. It also comes in the form of your birth status, etc. Having a $100,000 head start in the stock market, is almost always better than someone having $1000 as a starting capital (or worse still, negative capital simply because your parents are poor, that's unlucky).
That being said, I believe all of us here are in some way privileged to be gathered here and discussing individually. The poor kids in some countries have to fight for clean water and food. So the next time you realized that you are earning money in the stock market, remember, it is incredibly hard to do it, and you should be proud of yourselves. And in the scenario where you lose your money, well, you shouldn't be surprised either way. You are bound to be losing.
Here are some books you can refer to if you're interested: The Drunkard’s Walk by Leonard Mlodinow (How Randomness Rules Our Lives), Fooled by Randomness by Taleb N, The Black Swan by Taleb N, Who’s in Charge? by Michael S. Gazzaniga (on Free will and the science of the brain), Success and Luck by Robert H. Frank, The Most Good You Can Do (How effective altruism is changing ideas about living ethically) by Peter Singer.
Clarification: Some people mentioned if this post was directed to "diminish the contributions of skill and the hard effort of anyone". Absolutely not. ~~This post is assuming that in the top few % (if you're reading this, yourself included), everyone is just as talented.~~ But to be part of that 1% in that 1%, to be the richest among the richest, you have to be incredibly lucky.
TLDR: If you make huge gains, go and give some of it to other people that may not have been so lucky. Go and give it to the homeless people at the unemployment line, who ain't so lucky as you. Maybe buy him food. Get him clothes. Donate to your local charities. Most importantly, give it back to your parents, because your parents are the one who, most likely, set you up in this direction, and you are lucky enough to be here today. If you did not make any gains, remember, it is perfectly okay.
Shorter TLDR: Be happy, be grateful.
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Game Matchups Preview Playoffs Round #2: Bills vs. Ravens

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 18th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Ravens. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, these playoff posts are very long and highly detailed. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing.
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Ravens’ Passing Defense
After yet another great performance throwing the ball the Buffalo Bills are proving that they can beat anyone and everyone through the air. In their past 4 games the Bills have played the #11 (DEN), #18 (NWE), #6 (MIA), and #8 (IND) pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA, and have gone 108/153 (70.6%) for 1415 yards and a 12:2 TD:INT Ratio (Josh Allen’s stats here). Making the Bills recent run of success more impressive is that they have been successful against starkly different schemes, with tangible evidence the past two weeks. The Dolphins, who predominately run man coverage, were shredded for 388 passing yards, 124 of which came while targeting First Team All-Pro CB Xavien Howard. The Bills followed up this performance with Josh Allen picking apart the Colt’s Zone First Scheme for a Playoff leading passer rating of 121.6 (His regular season Passer Rating was 107.2). All of this leads to the following conclusion, with the way the Bills are playing right now there does not seem to be any specific scheme, team, or player that is capable of stopping the Bills’ passing attack.
Against the Ravens the Bills will need to find a way to beat Press Man Coverage. With one of the most physically gifted set of DBs in the NFL, headlined by Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens are particularly adept at this scheme. Their top two corners have both earned All-Pro honors at least once in their career primarily due to their physicality, but it is their ball skills which put them over the top. In 164 combined games Peters and Humphrey have 42 INTs, 20 FF, 11 FR, and 9 Defensive TDs. With the growing expectation that the Bills will primarily run 10 personnel (1RB, 4WR) the Ravens will likely spend the majority of Saturday in their Nickel package meaning that Jimmy Smith will join the previously mentioned CBs on the field. This sets up likely man matchups of Peters on Diggs, Smith on Brown, Humphrey in the Slot covering Beasley, and one of the two safeties (Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott) on Gabe Davis. In this alignment the Ravens would be forced to choose between blitzing the safety not covering Davis or having that player shade deep over the top to Diggs side of the field. At the end of the day this will be a game of 1-on-1 matchups with the winner determined by which side can consistently beat the other.
The Ravens’ Press Man is able to excel because of their skill in the secondary but where it becomes one of the most dangerous schemes in the NFL is their proficiency and consistency in rushing the passer. For the 3rd straight season the Ravens lead the NFL in Blitz %, this year blitzing 44.1% of the time (Dolphins are 2nd at 40.6%). This facilitated an environment where the Ravens were able to pressure opposing QBs on 24.0% of their drop backs (NFL-11) and sack those QBs 39 times (NFL-14). The Press Man and Pass Rush work in concert by reducing the ability for offenses to complete quick short passes which then allows the pass rush more time to disrupt the QB. The Ravens will send anywhere from 5-8 players at the QB with the players primarily running up field being Patrick Queen (MLB) and Matt Judon (OLB) but when forced into Nickel concepts the Ravens will not hesitate to send either safety. All of this allowed the 2019 Ravens to put constant pressure on Josh Allen during their game last season ultimately resulting in 5 sacks for a loss (6 total) with 4 of them occurring with 5+ blitzers (#1, #2, #3, #4). It is however important to note that the Buffalo Bills offense from 2019 looks absolutely nothing like they do in 2020, in fact it is remarkable how drastically different they truly look.
This matchup comes down to the Bills receivers being able to beat whichever DB is lined up in front of them. If the Bills can accomplish this, then it will allow Allen to get rid of the ball before the Ravens pass rush is able to get to him. If the reverse were to occur it will create an environment where multiple blindside forced fumbles and/or interceptions may occur which would be incredibly difficult for the Bills to recover from. While on paper this matchup may be extremely close the reality is that the Bills simply have to many weapons that excel at beating man coverage for the Ravens to consistently stop. Stefon Diggs is widely regarded as one of the best receivers against man coverage in the entire NFL while the quickness of Cole Beasley provides for the ability to continuously beat man coverage in the intermediate range. Couple this with the Ravens struggles in covering TEs and RBs while still considering that the Ravens will need to find a way to contend with Gabe Davis and John Brown and the Bills, surprisingly, have a massive advantage here.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Defense
With Zack Moss going down with a season ending injury Wildcard weekend most Bills’ fans have spent this week wondering who RB2 will be behind Devin Singletary. Up until Thursday afternoon it was very clearly a three-horse race between T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, and Devonta Freeman but via a statement from Sean McDermott we now know the winner of that race. T.J. Yeldon will suit up on Saturday night and be the RB2 behind Devin Singletary. McDermott also did make it very clear that this did not preclude the Bills from activating Antonio Williams for the Ravens game. Regardless of if it is one or two backs behind Singletary we can say with a fair degree of certainty that he will be the Bellcow back moving forward for Buffalo, meaning you can expect him to see north of 75% of the offensive snaps. One concern with that is in games where Singletary has exceeded 60% of offensive snaps (6) in 2020 he has a Y/A of 3.6 and in all other games he has a Y/A of 5.1. Let me make this abundantly clear, and see all of my previous posts for proof, I believe that the majority of the issues running the ball in 2020 are due to the blocking up front and not the RBs carrying the ball however, this stark contrast in Y/A should be a concern moving forward for a Bills’ team who at times will need to show they can move the ball on the ground if they want to continue winning football games.
This section now lends itself to a breakdown of the backups to Singletary on Saturday, one we know, and one is a maybe. With that in mind we start with T.J. Yeldon who has demonstrated the ability to be a competent runner of the football throughout his career with an acceptable 4.1 Y/A. Yeldon possesses exceptional agility for a player that is 6’1” 225lb and at times in his career has been one of the more dangerous receiving options in the NFL coming out of the backfield. The main knock Bills’ fans have on Yeldon is his fumbling where he has lost the ball 7 times on 677 career touches (1 per 97), for context Singletary has 5 on 374 (1 per 75). Next to discuss is the new darling of Bills Mafia, undrafted rookie Antonio Williams. One of the bigger unknowns on the Bills’ roster, Williams busted onto the scene against Miami with 83 all-purpose yards on 13 touches for 2 TDs in just one half. Out of UNC the 5’11” 215lb RB, who looks and plays much bigger, possesses exceptional lateral quickness and does not shy away from contact making him a dangerous player once he gets to the second level. Also, while it is highly improbable, we see him Saturday, I would be remised to not mention the signing of 2-time Pro Bowler Devonta Freeman who just a few years back was considered one of the best RBs in the game. Freeman suffered a groin injury in 2018 which required surgery which has since deprived him of some of the quickness that made him one of the biggest home run threats in the league. Still, Freeman provides a veteran presence with gas left in the tank, at just 28, he could be an integral part of the Bills’ Playoff push. All these players may play a factor if the Bills continue to advance in the playoffs, but Bills Mafia should fully expect T.J. Yeldon to do so on Saturday night.
If and when the Bills do run the ball, they will be doing so against a team which ranks 26th in the NFL (The Bills rank 24th) in Y/A against at 4.6. The Ravens also rank 27th in both 20+ A (1 per 32) and 40+ A (1 per 127) which is indicative of their blitz dependent defense. When the Ravens defense aligns with the proper gap they typically bring the ball carrier down in the backfield as the team has combined for 71 TFLs but when they miss ball carriers tend to pick up chunk yardage leaving their secondary to clean up free runners. This of course assumes the ball carrier can bypass the Ravens’ 3-4 alignment which is championed by one of the deeper DLs in all of football. On the right side is, long time Broncos DE, Derek Wolfe who typically lines up somewhere from the B to C gap and is one of the better run stuffers at the position. In the middle is the behemoth known as Brandon Williams who specializes as a NT, a dying position in the NFL that Williams still excels at. Lastly left of Williams is Calais Campbell who while listed as a DE plays more like a DT because of the blitz packages which the Ravens use. Campbell may be 34 and towards the end of his career but this exceptionally physical and athletic lineman will threaten Bills LG Ike Boettger all night.
The last group of players to cover for the Ravens is one of the most athletically gifted groups in the entire NFL, the Ravens LBs. Strength, Speed, Quickness, you name it, the 6 primary LBs on this team have it all. They are headlined by 21-year-old MLB Patrick Queen who ran a blazing 4.5 at the rookie combine in 2020. About as promising as they come Queen lead the Ravens in Tackles and TFLs and will challenge Josh Allen on any QB Draws the Bills may attempt. Next to him is either Pass Rush specialist Matt Judon or Pass Coverage specialist Tyus Bowser. Judon earned his second straight Pro Bowl selection because of his propensity to pressure the QB with his 4th straight season of 6+ sacks from the OLB position. Bowser, not nearly the pass rusher Judon is, instead has 3 INTs this season and an astounding 42.2 passer rating against (On just 15 targets). There are other players of note like ILB L.J. Fort, long time vet Pernell McPhee, or even the highly sought after Yannick Ngakoue but all you really need to know is that regardless of pass or run this unit has the ability to get into the backfield or chase down players that get outside of it.
EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Ravens’ Passing Offense
Against the Colts the Bills’ struggled at times against the pass with the most damage coming from the Colts’ TEs and the 6’4” rookie WR Michael Pittman. In isolation Phillip Rivers 300+ pass yard day implies that the secondary struggled covering their responsibilities, in reality the issue lay elsewhere. Rivers finished the 2020 season with a Time-to-Throw of just 2.52s (NFL-6) which he continued into the playoffs making it difficult for the Bills to get any pressure on the Indy QB. In fact, it was so difficult that the Bills had only 1 QB hit the entire game. This is the same team that in their last 6 games, post their Bye Week, was averaging 5.5 QB Hits per game. With the Bills running the Palms Scheme they are highly dependent on either pressure or extended Time-to-Throw in order to get into their secondary transitions, neither of those happened on Saturday which is why the Colts were so successful through the air.
Against the Ravens the Bills should be able to get more players in the vicinity of Lamar Jackson than they did Rivers. Of the 41 players with more than 128 pass attempts in 2020 Lamar ranked 38th in Time-To-Throw holding onto the ball for an average of 2.98 seconds. This was a primary reason that Lamar was sacked 29 times (NFL-13) and fumbled the ball 10 times. Obviously, the challenge here is that while teams can occasionally get pressure on Lamar, and even bring him down, the counter of his rushing ability poses a bigger threat (More on that in the rushing section). Credit is still due to Lamar and his OL who lost 2019 All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley to an ankle injury just 6 games into the season and had to flip their RT, Orlando Brown Jr., over to LT and plug and play from there. While the main threat of Lamar is undoubtedly his legs, he did finish 2020 with 2757 passing yards, 26 Passing TDs, and just 9 INTs by utilizing his receiving weapons to the best of their abilities.
At receiver the Ravens don’t have one imposing weapon, but they do have a slew of good options. First and foremost of these options is 2019 1st round draft pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who some tried to drop the “Bust” tag on in the middle of the season after he had a 4-game stretch where he caught just 6 balls for 55 yards and 1 TD. In opposition to that ideal try taking those 4 games out of the season and then pacing it to 16 games, when doing that Browns’ season would be 65 catches for 892 yards and 9 TDs, a solid season for any NFL player. He also answered the bell Wildcard weekend raking in 7 catches for 109 yards against a stout Tennessee secondary. Outside of him the only other receivers of note are Willie Snead, a vet who built his name in New Orleans and is a solid option at WR, Devin Duvernay, a lightning quick 2020 3rd round draft pick, and Miles Boykin, their big bodied WR who has a knack for bodying opposing defenders. But by far their most dangerous weapon in the passing game is not a WR but instead their TE, one of the best in the league, Mark Andrews. Andrews is a walking Tonka Truck that is built the same way as Dawson Knox with better hands and a more complete set of receiving skills. This is Lamar’s check down option which is a primary reason he shared the team lead in receptions (58) and finished second in receiving yards (701) meaning he should be the Bills’ biggest concern in the air on Saturday night.
For the Bills to dominate this battle they will need to get pressure on Lamar while simultaneously maintaining contain to avoid him escaping the pocket. Assuming they can accomplish this, which is a tall order, they will need to avoid letting all 3 of the Ravens primary receivers beat them deep and put a big body, say Tremaine Edmunds, on Mark Andrews. RBs have yet to prove a consistent threat for the Ravens through the air in 2020 accounting for just 15.8% of targets and 18.3% of catches but are something to monitor Saturday night as the Bills try to contain Lamar while putting a spy in the middle to avoid a big run. Buffalo must win this matchup, and should, if they have any chance of winning this game. A takeaway or two through the air wouldn’t hurt either.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Offense
The Bills had no answers against the Colts run game Wildcard weekend giving up the most rushing yards they have since the Cardinals game on November 15, 2020. Most of Buffalo’s success came when the Colts most powerful back, Jonathan Taylor, was running the ball holding him to just 3.7 Y/A but they had issues with the quicker players. Nyheim Hines only rushed the ball 6 times but accounted for 75 yards on carries of 4, 1, 29, 3, 33, and 5. This stat line should worry a Bills’ fan base that is hoping the Bills can beat a team stacked with shifty players and advance to their first AFC Championship Game since 1993.
The Ravens offense is built off an option scheme the likes of which the NFL has never seen. This offense can execute everything and anything on the ground and it all starts with QB Lamar Jackson. On option plays the QB will generally key off one defender and read which “option” said player chooses to defend. An example, a designed handoff to the right side of the line except all linemen wash down to the left and leave the defensive end unblocked. When this occurs it forces the defensive end to choose between scraping down to the RB taking the supposed handoff or to maintain contain on the QB (See example here). Lamar Jackson is an expert at reading such defenders and even in the rare event where he keeps the ball when he should hand it off, he has the athleticism to beat the defender to the edge. When handing the ball off he primarily will be handing it to Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins. Gus the Bus is bigger than Melvin Gordon but plays with the speed of Alvin Kamara which has allowed him to maintain a Y/A of 5.0+ in each of his first 3 seasons. J.K. Dobbins is the smaller, faster, and quicker of the two which makes for a good change of pace from Edwards. This three headed monster has created for the Ravens one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history which continues to defy the mantra that the NFL is just a passing league.
The second part of the Ravens that make them so deadly running the football is their offensive line. At the two guard spots are Bradley Bozeman (LG) and Ben Powers (RG) who each possess incredible strength which allows them control defenders at the time of the snap. Neither is exceptionally gifted at pulling or blocking in the open field but their strength couples nicely with the athleticism of the Ravens backfield. Between them is Center Patrick Mekari who took the starting Job from Matt Skura midway through the season after snapping issues forced him to the bench. Mekari is a big bruiser like his guards Bozeman and Powers which gives the Ravens just south of half a ton of Man in the middle of their line. At RT is veteran D.J. Fluker who was chosen 11th overall by the San Diego Chargers in 2013. Fluker now on his 4th team in 8 seasons is a competent RT crushing the scales at nearly 350lb but is dealing with a nagging knee injury which is something to monitor. Last is LT Orlando Brown who was laughed at for only putting up 14 on the bench press at his combine three years ago and has quieted the doubters by being named to his 2nd straight Pro Bowl. In all this is an above average OL built perfectly for a Lamar Jackson lead offense.
Buffalo will need to slow down the Ravens run game if they have any chance of winning on Saturday and this may be an odd thing to read, but the Bills defense actually lends itself to do just that. There has been discussion all week on Reddit, Twitter, and everywhere else of who will play the spy for the Bills against the Ravens and while they assuredly will occasionally spy, with Edmunds, Milano, or Poyer, the Bills’ Palms Scheme is actually proficient at slowing down mobile QBs. In this scheme the Bills will have multiple defenders zoned in the middle of the field, effectively playing a coverage spy on Lamar while also holding an advantage on the outside via their tradeoff concepts. In the event Lamar does break outside the pocket the Bills defense allows the boundary guarding CB to step forward to Lamar while the safety over the top takes the receiver. This is how the Bills defense is built and while an incredibly difficult scheme to run it is one the Bills have mastered. Don’t take this description of the Bills’ defense to say they will nullify Lamar Jackson but realize that the Bills have the tools to somewhat contain him, that is assuming they play a perfect game.
EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Ravens’ Special Teams
Throughout 2020 the Bills’ average starting field position was their own 30.7-yard line (NFL-6). Against the Colts their average starting field position was their own 15.4-yard line. The Bills would obviously go on to win this game, but field position has proved to be an indicator of success in 2020 as each team finishing within the Top-8 made the playoffs. This leads to a defense of one of the Bills most polarizing players, Andre Roberts, who has been integral to the Bills’ success in this measure and the insinuation that he was a major contributing factor in the Bills’ field position issues Wildcard weekend is not backed up by any tangible evidence. In the first half of the Colts’ game the Bills’ average starting field position was the 7.8-yard line primarily because of an exceptional Colts’ ST unit and the bend, don’t break, style of the Bills’ defense. How did each of the Colts’ first 6 drives end? Punt downed at the Bills’ 3, Magical kickoff dies on the Bills’ 15, Punt fair catch at the Bills’ 11, Kickoff returned by Roberts’ to the 12 with a 6 yard penalty bringing it back to the Bills’ 6, Colt’s Turnover on Downs at the Bills’ 4, Colts kneel before halftime. For the Bills’ this game was an aberration, and one I have confidence they will clean up against the Ravens, mainly because I have confidence in Andre Roberts.
Outside of the return game the Special Teams group for Buffalo continues to be one of the best in the NFL. Corey Bojorquez rightfully received a vote to the All-Pro team, and it could be argued he deserved more. Bojo punted 4 times Wildcard Weekend averaging 47.0 Y/P with a Net Y/P of 43.5. These numbers would have been significantly higher had he not purposely drilled in I20 punt which only required a 29-yard kick. At kicker is another player who arguably deserved some All-Pro consideration, rookie Tyler Bass. This kid has been on complete fire the past 10 weeks going 42/43 on XPs and 18/19 on FGs with his only miss coming from 61 yards out. I was personally skeptical on Bass coming into the season, but my goodness, this kid is a stud. There is one more player on the Bills’ Special Teams that got an All-Pro vote, Tyler Matakevich. A guru at the position the man nicknamed “Dirty Red” is around the ball carrier on every kick and tossing people around on every return. Bills’ fans know more than most that Special Teams players can have a huge impact on a team and the Bills’ have a ton of great ones.
The Ravens also have one of the better Special Teams units in the NFL. For most of the season Devin Duvernay handled KR while James Proche took care of PR however, in recent weeks Duvernay has taken control of both. Averaging 11.5 Y/PR and 27.5 Y/KR, with a 93-yard return for a TD, Duvernay is a dynamic rookie with open field speed that few can match. Just like the Colts game this will likely effect the Bills’ short kick strategy meaning a lot of touchbacks when the Bills kick off. Punting for the Ravens is the 38-year old veteran Sam Koch who the Ravens have under contract until he is 40. Koch had his lowest Y/P (44.5) in a decade but finished 8th in the NFL with a Net Y/P of 42.8, a difference of just 1.7. Koch rarely allows players to return the ball and when they do, they are averaging just 4.8 Y/R. Last is the best to ever do it, Kicker Justin Tucker. Tucker has a 90.7 FG% in the regular season throughout his career with a career long of 61. As automatic as they come if you see Tucker on the field there is basically no tradition Bills’ fans can do that would make him miss.
EDGE: Bills 👏
Why We Will Lose
The Ravens have steadily improved the entire season and are peaking at the perfect time. Improving their odds of advancing is that the Ravens’ strengths matchup well against the Bills’ weaknesses. On defense the Ravens excel against the pass and have been able to put pressure on every QB they have played in 2020. That pressure should be extra concerning for a Bills’ team that has seen their star QB struggle at holding onto the football, now realize that the Ravens had a combined 25 forced fumbles in the regular season and start panicking. In reality the Ravens only weakness on defense is against the run which is something that they shouldn’t particularly care about when playing a Bills team who has struggled running the ball and should find a more difficult go of things after losing their RB2.
On offense the Ravens continue to be one of the best running teams in history. Whether it be Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, or Lamar Jackson doesn’t matter because whoever has the ball will be able to effectively move it on the ground. This means consistent yardage with the occasional big run sprinkled in. That continuous success ultimately will keep the ball out of the hands of Buffalo’s offense while putting up points for Baltimore which is a typical strategy against a Bills team that has struggled against the run in 2020. Making matters worse is the Bills’ can’t just bail out to stop the run because if they did attempt this Lamar Jackson, the 2019 MVP, has shown the ability to make big plays through the air and will do so against this Bills’ team. The Ravens offense is built to beat a team like Buffalo, as is their defense, which is a recipe for a Baltimore victory.
Why We Will Win
The 2019 Bills lost to the Ravens 24-17. The 2020 Bills are a significantly improved version of that team with an MVP caliber QB. The Bills offense had no answer for the Ravens pressure last season which is a primary reason they went out and got a receiver that could specifically help with handling that scheme. That receiver is your first team All-Pro WR, Stefon Diggs, who has dominated every single player that has tried to guard him this season. You factor him in with Buffalo’s other 3 options at the position and the Bills suddenly have the ability to put up points against a Ravens’ defense that is one of the best in the NFL.
On defense the Bills may not have had the same success in 2020 that they did in 2019 but they have continually improved all season long. This game comes down to the Bills’ ability to contain Lamar Jackson and a healthy Matt Milano makes that slightly easier. Dark horse candidate to have big game is A.J. Epenesa who the Bills coaching staff has surely coached up to not do to much and instead do his 1/11th. And that is just what every single Bills’ player must do, their 1/11th, do that and you won’t stop Lamar Jackson, but you can reduce the damage he inflicts. If Buffalo accomplishes that your Bills will be heading to their first AFC Championship game in nearly 30 years.
Prediction: Bills 27 – Ravens 24
This is going to be a close game whichever way you slice it. On paper the Ravens seem to have the matchups but in reality, the Bills seem to have the ability to win them. Because this will be so close this game likely comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes, inclusive of turnovers. With the way the Bills are playing right now you must trust Josh Allen more than Lamar Jackson to hold onto the ball. At the end of the night though this will be a battle of heavyweights with the last one standing being one game away from Super Bowl Sunday.

My evaluation of HoH options for February 2021

LMT: A Deep Dive

Edit 1: More ARKQ buying today (~50k shares). Thank you everyone for the positive feedback and discussion!
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) or TL;DR for the non-military types:
LMT is a good target if you want to literally go to the moon, and my PT is $690.26 in two years (more than 2x from current levels). Justification and some possible trade ideas are listed below, just CTRL-F “Trade Ideas”. I hope you guys enjoy this work and would appreciate any discussion or feedback. I hope to catch you in the comments.
Team,
We interrupt today’s regularly scheduled short squeeze coverage to discuss a traditionally boring stock, LMT (Lockheed Martin), with significant upside potential. To be clear, this is NOT a short squeeze target like many reddit posts are keying on. I hope that this piece sparks discussion, but if you are just looking for short squeeze content, all I have to say is BUY, HOLD, and GODSPEED.
The source of inspiration for me writing this piece is threefold; first, retail investors are winning, and I believe that we will continue to win if we continue to identify opportunities in the market. In my view, the stock market has always been a place for the public to shine a light on areas of innovation that real Americans are excited about and proud to be a part of. Online communities have stolen the loudspeaker from hedge fund managers and returned it to decentralized online democracies that quickly and proudly shift their weight behind ideas they believe in. In GME’s case, it was a blatant smear campaign to destroy a struggling business. I think that we should continue this campaign by identifying opportunities in the market and running with them. It may sound overly idealistic, but if reddit can take on the hedge funds, I non-ironically believe that we can quite literally take good companies researching space technology to the moon. I think LMT may be one of several stocks to help get us there.
Second, a video where the Secretary of State of Massachusetts argues that internet boards are full of a bunch of unsophisticated, thoughtless traders really ticked me off. This piece is designed to show that ‘the little guy’ is ready to get into the weeds, understand business plans, and outpace analysts that think companies like Tesla are overvalued by comparing them to Toyota. That is a big reason that I settled on an old, large, slow growth company to do a deep-dive on, and try my best to show some of the abysmal predictive analysis major ‘research firms’ do on even some of the most heavily covered stocks. LMT is making moves, and the suits on wall street are 10 steps behind. At the time of writing this piece, Analyst Estimates range from 330-460 (what an insane range).
Third, and most importantly, I am in the US military, and I think that it is fun to go deep into the financials of the defense sector. I think that it helps me understand the long-term growth plans of the DoD, and I think that I attack these deep-dives with a perspective that a lot of these finance-from-day-one cats do not understand. Even if no one ever looks at this work, I think that taking the time to write pieces like this makes me a better Soldier, and I will continue to do it in my spare time when I am feeling inspired. I wrote a piece on Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX) 6 months ago, and I think it was well-received. I was most convicted about RTX in the defense sector, but I have since shifted to believing LMT is the leader in the defense space. I am long both, though. If this inspires anyone else to do similar research on other companies, or sparks discussion in the community, that is just a bonus. Special shout-out to the folks that read more than just the TL;DR, but if you do just read the TL;DR, I love you too!
Now let us get into it:
Leadership
I generally like to invest in companies that are led by people that seem to have integrity. Jim Taiclet took the reins at LMT in June of last year. While on active duty, he served as a C-141B Starlifter pilot (a retired LMT Aircraft). After getting out he went to work for the American Tower Corporation (Ticker: AMT). His first day at American Tower was September 10, 2001. The following day, AMT lost 13 employees in the World Trade Center attack. He stayed with the company, despite it being decimated by market uncertainty in the wake of 9/11. He was appointed CEO of the very same company in 2004. Over a 16 year tenure as CEO of AMT the company market cap 20x’d. He left his position as CEO of AMT in March of last year, and the stock stagnated since his departure, currently trading at roughly the same market cap as to when he left.
Jim Taiclet was also appointed to be the chairman of the board this week, replacing the previous CEO. Why is it relevant that the CEO came from a massive telecommunications company?
Rightfully, Taiclet’s focus for LMT is bringing military technology into the modern era. He wants LMT to be a first mover in the military 5G space, military application of AI space, the… space space, and the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) space. These areas are revolutionary for the boomer defense sector. We will discuss this in more detail later when we cover the company’s P/E multiple and why it is absolute nonsense.
It is not a surprise to me that they brought Taiclet on during the pandemic. He led AMT through adversity before, and LMT’s positioning during the pandemic is tremendous relative to the rest of the sector, thanks in large part to some strong strategic moves and good investments by current and past leadership. I think that Taiclet is the right CEO for the job.
In addition to the new CEO, the new Secretary of Defense, Secretary Lloyd Austin, has strong ties to the defense sector. He was formerly a board member for RTX. He is absolutely above reproach, and a true leader of character, but I bring this up not to suggest that he will inappropriately serve in the best interest of defense contractors, but to suggest that he speaks the language of these companies effectively. I do not anticipate that the current administration poses as significant of a risk to the defense sector as many analysts seem to believe. This will be expanded in the headwinds section below.
SPACE
Cathie Wood and the ARK Invest team brought a lot of attention to the space sector when the ARKX, The ARK Space Exploration ETF, Form N-1A was officially filed through the SEC. More recently, ARK Invest published their Big Ideas 2021 Annual Report and dedicated an entire 7-page chapter to Orbital Aerospace, a new disruptive innovation platform that the ARK Team is investigating. This may have helped energize wall street to re-look their portfolios and their investments in space technology, but it was certainly not the first catalyst that pushed the defense industry in the direction of winning the new space race.
In June 2018, then President Trump announced at the annual National Space Council that “it is not enough to merely have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space. So important. Therefore, I am hereby directing the Department of Defense (DoD) and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the sixth branch of the Armed Forces". Historically, Department of Defense space assets were under the control of the Air Force. By creating a separate branch of service for the United States Space Force (USSF), the DoD would allocate a Chairman of Space Operations on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and clearly define the budget for space operations dedicated directly to the USSF. At present, this budget is funneled from the USAF’s budget. The process was formalized in December of 2019, and the DoD has appropriated ~$15B to the USSF in their first full year of existence according to the FY21 budget.
Among the 77 spacecraft that are controlled by the USSF, 29 of them are Lockheed Martin GPS satellites, 6 of them are Lockheed Martin Space-Based Infrared Systems (SBIRS), and LMT had a hand in creating and/or manufacturing for several of the other USSF efforts. The Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared Missile Warning Satellites (also known as Next-Gen OPIR) were contracted out to both Northrup Grumman (Ticker: NOC) and LMT. LMT’s contract is currently set at $4.9B, NOC’s contract is set at $2.37B.
Tangentially related to the discussion of space is the discussion of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). HGVs have exoatmospheric and atmospheric implications, but I think that their technology is extremely important to driving margins down for both space exploration and terrestrial point-to-point travel. LMT is leading the charge for military HGV research. They hold contracts with the Navy, Air Force, and Army to develop HGVs and hypersonic precision fires. The priority for HGV technology accelerated significantly when Russia launched their Avangard HGV in December of 2019. Improving the technology for HGVs is a critical next-step in maintaining US hegemony, but also maintaining leadership in both terrestrial and exoatmospheric travel.
LARGE SCALE COMBAT OPERATIONS (LSCO)
The DoD transitioning to Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) as the military’s strategic focus. This is a move away from an emphasis on Counter-Insurgency operations. LSCO requires effective multi-domain operations (MDO), which means effective and integrated strategies regarding land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. To have effective MDO, the DoD is seeking systems that both expand capabilities against peer threats and increase the ability to track enemy units and communicate internally. This requires a modernizing military strategy that relies heavily on air, missile, and sensor modernization. Put simply, the DoD has decided to start preparing for peer or near-peer adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) rather than insurgencies. For this reason, I believe that increased Chinese and Russian tensions are, unfortunate as it may be, a boon to the defense industry. This is particularly true in the missiles/fires and space industry, as peer-to-peer conflicts are won by leveraging technological advantages.
There are too many projects to cover in detail, but some important military technologies that LMT is focusing on to support LSCO include directed energy weapons (lasers) to address enemy drone technology, machine learning / artificial intelligence (most applications fall under LMT’s classified budget, but it is easy to imagine the applications of AI in a military context), and 5G to increase battlefield connectivity. These projects are all nested within the DoD’s LSCO strategy, and position LMT as the leader in emergent military tech. NOC is the other major contractor making a heavy push in the modernization direction, but winners win, and I think a better CEO, balance sheet, and larger market cap make LMT the clear winner for aiding the DoD in a transition toward LSCO.
SECTOR COMPARISON (BACKLOG)
The discussion of LSCO transitions well into the discussion of defense contractor backlogs. Massive defense contracts are not filled overnight, so examining order backlogs is a relatively reliable way to gauge the interest of the DoD in a defense contractor’s existing or emerging products. For my sector comparison, I am using the top 6 holdings of the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (Ticker: ITA). I hate this ETF, and ETFs like it (DFEN) because of their massively outsized exposure to aerospace, and undersized allocation to companies like LMT. LMT is only 18% smaller than Boeing (Ticker: BA) but is only 30.4% of the exposure of BA (18.46% of the fund is BA, only 5.62% of the fund is LMT). Funds of this category are just BA / RTX hacks. I suggest building your own pie on a site like M1 Finance (although they are implicated in the trade restriction BS… please be advised of that… hoping other brokerages that are above board will offer similar UIs like the pie design… just wanted to be clear there) if you are interested in the defense sector.
The top 6 holdings of ITA are:
Boeing Company (Ticker: BA, MKT CAP $110B) at 18.46%
Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX, MKT CAP $101B) at 17.84%
Lockheed Martin (Ticker: LMT, MKT CAP $90B) at 5.62%
General Dynamics Corporation (Ticker: GD, MKT CAP $42B) 4.78%
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (Ticker: TDY, MKT CAP $13B) at 4.74%
Northrop Grumman Corporation (Ticker: NOC, MKT CAP $48B) at 4.64%
As a brief aside, please look at the breakdowns of ETFs before buying them. The fact that ITA has more exposure to TDY than NOC and L3Harris is wild. Make sector ETFs balanced how you want them to be balanced and it will be more engaging, and you will likely outperform. I digress.
Backlogs for defense companies can easily be pulled from their quarterly reports. Here are the current backlogs in the same order as before, followed by a percentage of their backlog to their current market cap. All numbers are pulled from January earning reports unless otherwise noted with an * because they are still pending.
Boeing Company backlog (Commercial: $282B, Defense: $61B, Foreign Military Sales (FMS, categorized by BA as ‘Global’): 21B, Total Backlog 364B): BA’s backlog to market cap is a ratio of 3.32, which is strong, but most of that backlog comes from the commercial, not the defense side. Airlines have been getting decimated, I am personally not interested in having much of my backlog exposed to commercial pressures when trying to invest in a defense play. Without commercial exposure, their defense only backlog ratio is .748. This is extremely low. I understand that this does not do BA justice, but I am keying in on defense exposure, and I am left thoroughly unsatisfied by that ratio. Also, we have seen several canceled contracts already on the commercial side.
Raytheon Technologies backlog (Defense backlog for all 4 subdivisions: 67.3B): Raytheon only published a defense backlog in this quarter’s report. That is further evidence to me that the commercial aerospace side of the house is getting hammered. They have a relatively week backlog to market cap as well, putting them at a ratio of .664, worse off than the BA defense backlog.
Lockheed Martin backlog (Total Backlog: $147B): This backlog blows our first two defense backlogs out of the water with a current market cap to backlog ratio of 1.63.
General Dynamics Corporation backlog (Total Backlog: $89.5B, $11.6B is primarily business jets, but it is difficult to determine how much of their aerospace business is commercial): Solid 2.13 ratio, still great 1.85 if you do not consider their aerospace business. The curveball here for me is that GD published a consolidated operating profit of $4.1B including commercial aerospace, whereas LMT published a consolidated operating profit of $9.1B. This makes the LMT ratio of profit/market cap slightly in favor of LMT without accounting for the GD commercial aerospace exposure. This research surprised me; I may like GD more than I originally assumed I would. Still prefer LMT.
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated backlog (Found in the earnings transcript, $1.7B): This stock is not quite in the same league as the other major contractors. This is an odd curveball that a lot of the defense ETFs seem to have too much exposure to. They have a weak backlog, but they are a smaller growing company. I am not interested in this at all. It has a backlog ratio of .129.
Northrop Grumman Corporation backlog ($81B): Strong numbers here. I see NOC and LMT as the two front-runners in the defense sector. I like LMT more because I like their exposure to AI, 5G, and HGVs more than NOC, but I think this is a great alternative to LMT if you like the defense sector. Has a ratio of 1.69, slightly edging out LMT on this metric. LMT edges out NOC on margins by ~.9%, though, which has significant implications when considering the depth of the LMT backlog.
The winners here are LMT, GD, and NOC. BA is attractive if you think anyone will have enough money to buy new planes. BA and RTX are both getting hammered by commercial aerospace exposure right now and are much more positioned as recovery plays. That said, LMT and NOC both make money now, and will regardless of the impact of the pandemic. LMT is growing at a slightly faster rate than NOC. Both are profit machines, but I like LMT’s product portfolio and leadership a lot more.
FREE CASH FLOW
Despite the pandemic, LMT had the free cash flow to be able to pay a $2.60 per share dividend. This maintains their ~3% yearly dividend rate. They had a free cash flow of $6.4B. They spent $3.9 of that in share repurchases and dividend payouts. That leaves 40% of that cash to continue to strengthen one of the most stalwart balance sheets outside of big tech on the street. Having this free cash flow allowed them to purchase Aerojet Rocketdyne for $4.4B in December. They seem flexible and willing to expand and take advantage of their relative position during the pandemic. This is a stock that has little downside risk and significant upside potential. It is always reassuring to me to know that at the end of the day, a company is using its profit to continue to grow.
HEADWINDS
New Administration – This is more of an unknown than a headwind. The Obama Administration was not light on military spending, and the newly appointed SecDef is unlikely to shy away from modernizing the force. Military defense budgets may get lost in the political shuffle, but nothing right now suggests that defense budgets are on the chopping block.
Macroeconomic pressure – The markets are tumultuous in the wake of GME. Hedgies are shaking in their boots, and scared money weighed on markets the past week. If scared money continues to exert pressure on the broader equity markets, all boomer stocks are likely weighed down by slumping markets.
Non-meme Status – The stocks that are impervious to macroeconomic pressures in the above paragraph are the stonks that we, the people, have decided to support. From GME to IPOE, there is a slew of stonks that are watching and laughing from the green zone as the broader markets slip deeper into the red zone. Unless sentiment about LMT changes, I see no evidence that LMT will remain unaffected by a broader economic downturn (despite showing growth YoY during a pandemic).
TAILWINDS
Aerojet Rocketdyne to the Moon – Cathie Wood opened up a $39mil position in LMT a few weeks ago, and this was near the announcement of ARKX. The big ideas 2021 article focuses heavily on satellite technology, deep learning, and HGVs. I think that the AR acquisition suggests that vertical integration is a priority for LMT. They even fielded a question in their earnings call about whether they were concerned about being perceived as a monopoly. Their answer was spot on—the USFG and DoD have a vested interest in the success of defense companies. Why would they discourage a defense contractor from vertical integration to optimize margins?
International Tensions – SolarWinds has escalated US-Russia tensions. President Biden wants to look tough on China. LSCO is a DoD-wide priority.
5G.Mil – We still do not have a lot of fidelity on what this looks like, but the military would benefit in a lot of ways if we had world-wide access to the rapid transfer of encrypted data. Many units still rely on Vietnam-era technology signal technology with abysmal data rates. There are a lot of implications if the code can be cracked to win a DoD 5G contract.
TRADE IDEAS
Price Target: LMT is currently at a P/E of ~14. Verizon has roughly the same. LMT’s 5-year P/E ratio average is ~17. NOC is currently at a P/E of ~20. TSLA has a P/E Ratio of 1339 (disappointingly not 1337). P/E is a useless metric because no one seems to care about it. My point is that LMT makes a lot of money, and other companies that are valued at much higher multiples do not make any money at all. LMT’s P/E ratio is that of a boomer stock that has no growth potential. LMT’s P/E is exactly in line with the Aerospace and Defense Industry P/E ratio standard. LMT’s new CEO is pushing the industry in a new direction. I will arbitrarily choose a P/E ratio of 30, because it is half of the software industry average, and it is a nice round number. Plus, stock values are speculative and nonsense anyway.
Share price today: $321.82
Share price based on LMT average 5-year P/E: $384.08 (I see this as a short term PT, reversion to the mean)
Share price with a P/E of 30: $690.26
Buy and Hold: Simple. Doesn’t take much thought. Come back in a year or two and be happy with your tendies (and a few dividends to boot).
LEAPS Call Debit Spread (Based on last trade prices): Buy $375 C 20 JAN 23 for $26.5, Sell $450 C 20 JAN 23 for $12. Total Cost $14.5 for a spread width of $75. Max gain 517% per spread. Higher risk strategy.
LEAPS: Buy $500 C 20 JAN 23 for $7.20. Very high-risk strat. If the price target is hit within two years, these would be in the money $183 per contract for a gain of 2500%. This is the casino strat.
SOURCES
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/2020/james-taiclet-from-military-pilot-to-successful-ceo.html
https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/in-response-to-senator-warrens-questions-secretary-of-defense-nominee-general-lloyd-austin-commits-to-recusing-himself-from-raytheon-decisions-for-four-years
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2019-08-30-Lockheed-Martins-Expertise-in-Hypersonic-Flight-Wins-New-Army-Work
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/hypersonics.html
https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK%E2%80%93Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf?hsCtaTracking=4e1a031b-7ed7-4fb2-929c-072267eda5fc%7Cee55057a-bc7b-441e-8b96-452ec1efe34c
https://www.deseret.com/2018/6/19/20647309/twitter-reacts-to-trump-s-call-for-a-space-force
https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/fy2021_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf
https://www.airforcemag.com/lockheed-receives-up-to-4-9-billion-for-next-gen-opir-satellites/
https://spacenews.com/northrop-grumman-gets-2-3-billion-space-force-contract-to-develop-missile-warning-satellites/
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/directed-energy/laser-weapon-systems.html
https://emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews/lockheed-martins-ai-applications-for-the-military/
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/07/new-ceo-wants-lockheed-become-5g-playe167072/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/defense-firms-expect-higher-spending-11548783988
https://www.etf.com/ITA#efficiency
https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/4Q20-Presentation.pdf
https://investors.rtx.com/static-files/dfd94ff7-4cca-4540-bc4b-4e3ba92fc646
https://investors.lockheedmartin.com/static-files/64e5aa03-9023-423a-8908-2aae8c7015ac
https://s22.q4cdn.com/891946778/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/GD_4Q20_Earnings_Highlights-Outlook-Final.pdf
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/teledyne-technologies-inc-tdy-q4-2020-earnings-cal/
https://investor.northropgrumman.com/static-files/6e6e117f-f656-4c68-ba7f-3dc53c2dd13a

2021 Australian Open Men's Round 2 Writeup 🐢

This day is a minefield. So many players in the men’s draw are lined up against very stylistically similar opponents, and while a ton of underdogs have a chance at winning, if both play their peak there are unlikely to be a lot of upsets today. Since tennis is tennis, this likely means there will be even more upsets as many athletes feel the pressure to win a safe one, but have to easy way to do so. Still time btw to join the Picking Competiton at AO Competition by the way. Free to join and some smol but nice cash prizes. They'll be running these for a lot of tournaments this year so feel free to check it out anytime. Working on the Women's now; I'll post the early matches first so they're up by gametime and add the rest as I finish them. 🐢
Djokovic Tiafoe : Looking at the first round scores this is going to be a great matchup. So just keeeeep looking at the scores. It’s tough to write anything about Novak Djokovic other than “he’s too good.” The guy has the personality of an almond, but he simply has worked his way to the top and despite the hard work of other younger players on tour, time spent winning makes good decisions and efficient tactics more of a muscle memory thing than a conscious decision thing, so the more intense the match gets the better he plays.
Tiafoe was almost bad enough to lose the first set to Travaglia, but eventually he managed to get the job done as Travaglia’s legs got more and more fatigued. I’m impressed he was even able to take the court after his contest with Sinner the night before, and it’s certainly not Tiafoe’s fault that his opponent was fatigued, so it was a well-deserved win. Tiafoe’s best chance at doing damage to Djokovic is to serve the lights out, and Djokovic covers the outwide serve (Tiafoe’s best from the ad side) so well that this is kinda an empty pursuit. Djokovic in 3.
Opelka Fritz : Opelka got the job done fairly easily in the first round, but Yen Hsun-Lu is not really a tour level player anymore. Fritz has frosted tips, and even though he’s a decade late, it’s a pretty good look. I am still endeavoring to say 3 positive things about Taylor Fritz in every post, and that counts as 2. The third is that he is likely to win this match.
Fritz has won most of their previous meetings, and even though he plays tennis like he’s more sleepy than hungry to win, he has an interesting combination of skills that make him a favorite. His serve doesn’t win him matches outright, but it’s a very easy motion and is good enough to get a lot of easy returns against Opelka. His offense during the rallies is mostly forehand offerings that aren’t clean winners, but these are good enough to get up high on Opelka can allow him to go for things he shouldn’t. Fritz’s backhand only goes one direction and is not offensive enough to really get him into good positions in the rally, but actually the best way to approach Opelka’s backhand is just to keep pushing the ball there and let him create his own offense. These things considered, Fritz should have a pretty good chance to hold serve most of the time, and shouldn’t have to press in rallies when he is able to return Opelka’s serve. That is the x-factor ultimately. Opelka’s serve is sometimes inconsistent but is one of the biggest on tour, and that coupled with Fritz’s cursed ability to be Taylor Fritz means that this could easily be decided in tiebreakers which tend to favor big servers. Fritz was abysmal last week against Chardy, and moderately decent against Ramos. Ramos is an excellent warmup though for your baseline game, and Fritz had to do a lot of good work and should be sharp for this one. Fritz in 4.
Wawrinka Fucsovics : Wawrinka looked businesslike in round one, which is refreshing. Pedro Sousa is the type of player who loses quickly though, and Stan’s round two opponent is the type who doesn’t do anything quickly. Marton Fucsovics brushes his teeth for 45 minutes in the morning while riding an exercise bike that plays Japanese lessons. While this goes on, he does crunches. There are few players on tour who could endure the hot nonsense bouncy performance that Marc Polmans put on in the first round. It really looked as if Fucsovics would never turn the tide and Polmans played great offense from start to finish. For a guy like Fucsovics, his mobility seemed to make this match a problem as he was content to retrieve in many rallies and rather than draw errors like he often does, it resulted in allowing Polmans to work the point without pressure.
The determining factor here will be Wawrinka errors. Fucsovics is a great defensive player with moderately effective offensive tools. He gets a bit slice-happy on his backhand but he keeps it low. His forehand doesn’t always have good length but against he keeps the ball low. His serve isn’t really about aces but about netting himself a return to work with. This means Wawrinka will have control of rallies, but needs to be patient in his approach to winning. The first shot is going to come back, and constructing the point will be essential. The backhands in the net and overcooked forehands will be a problem as it stretches on since he can lose confidence in both wings, but this is a guy with experience and a good record against Fucsovics (though the matches were close) so given Fucs’ struggles with Polmans, a fresh Wawrinka should eventually win here. Wawrinka in 5.
Moutet Raonic : Moutet and Milman had a really good spirited war. There’s something so refreshing about a unique tennis player, and Moutet’s game is really entertaining. The inside out forehand slice that he hits down the line at times costs him points, but it’s fun! The reckless charges to the net get him having to dive for pass, but they’re fun! Up next is the consumer of all fun, Milos Raonic. Usually I provide a list of things that Raonic looks like : the child of a gecko and some chewing gum, an eagle crossed with a pencil, a tree that wandered off, etc. Today though I’m just gonna talk tennis. Mr Raonic mad extremely quick work of Coria, and since last year was his first full year without major injury problems, and since he played well in every event, he has to be a heavy favorite here. Moutet is crafty, and his movement will make him an even prospect in most rallies, but getting into those rallies is tough, and since Moutet gets moved behind the baseline so easily, Raonic’s prowess at net is likely to get a lot of simple reps early and often. This is a trickier matchup in a first round, or at a smaller event. Moutet actually beat him at Doha last year as if to prove that. The small caveat to take away from that match is that Moutet does have the ability to hold serve against Raonic if he keeps the big man moving, or if he’s able to get an early break. Raonic is good for at least 1 completely poor service game per 3 sets, so I think Moutet will earn a set, but earning multiple sets in this format will prove a lot of work. Raonic in 4.
Ruusuvuori Martinez : This prince who was promised! Ruusuvuori has been coming in at absurd odds and losing for a while now. The final nail in the coffin was opening as a favorite against Monfils, and it looked for a while like these odds were slightly switched. In a similar contest to his match with Coric last week, Emil and Gael exchanged long rallies at the baseline and played a highly entertaining contest. This week though, Emil had a bit more belief and a bit more staying power.
An emotional Monfils gave a press conference after the match that surprised me for a few reasons. He said he felt like he was living in a nightmare and couldn’t escape. From watching him, he’s never really been 100% committed to grinding out wins on the court. He’s never been 100% healthy. He’s always laughing and entertaining the crowd. To turn around now and seem to be struggling and to act as if these losses are now troubling or unexpected kinda shows me that although he’s more human and less entertainer than his persona gives off at times, that he also could use some changes in coaching. I feel bad that Monfils is struggling to win matches, but someone should tell him that he’s aging, he’s had a brilliant career, and millions of fans love to watch him play. At a certain point, it’s time to enjoy the sport and not really be as results oriented. A win against Monfils is a great moment for Ruusuvuori. Being an ambassador doesn’t mean you stop winning, but it means you grow and are afforded perspective that allows you to enjoy your time while you’re in it. Younger players pass you by, and I’m not trying to belittle him for not realizing it, but he really was extremely dominant in a lot of his wins in the past despite not playing the most dedicated brand of tennis. Players are going to scout you and solve the equation. The more times you lose the more it’s going to happen unfortunately because when margins are as small as they are on the tour, belief is often paramount. I also might suggest that he’s only really been winning consistently on tour indoors of late, but that’s enough Gael bashing for one year. He has a great game, and is one of the most fun guys on tour to watch. It seems unfair that he was one of the last to realize that he is extremely inconsistent and loses matches he should sometimes win. As a bonus, if we manage to get “competes all out” Monfils as a result, that’ll be awesome to watch.
Pedro Martinez turned things around well against Nishioka, who continues to look to the sky for answers as matches that seem like they’re his get taken away. The problem for Nishioka was that he stopped dictating play. The same was Halys lost to Andujar, Nishioka lost to Martinez. Clay court players are not at their best on hardcourt, but only if the pace you bring to them is too much. Without a dominant serve, these guys get in the rally and they press small edges. They employ variety. They minimize errors. It’s a very easy thing to write off claycourters in hardcourt events but they notch upsets in every single one (except indoors).
This next matchup is great. I don’t see a lot to separate these two, but luckily they’ve played twice already and Ruusuvuori has won both matchups. An extremely generic way to judge a contest, but I really don’t see a way for either player to win easy points here as good as they both are from the baseline, so I am inclined to lean slightly towards Ruus. Martinez will be fresher, and has improved a great deal since their previous meeting. Working against Ruusuvuori is the Disneyland factor, and winning a 5 setter against a high profile opponent can leave you kinda flat in the next round as your brain decides “i’m this good now!” but your opponent does not seem interested. I’d give the nod here to Ruusuvuori still, because Monfils is a really difficult opponent compared to Nishioka and the odds and expectations placed on Ruusuvuori are the type that indicate he will continue to progress. He has a slightly better serve as well. Ruusuvuori in 5.
Bublik Lajovic : Bublik proved that angrily talking at the crowd in Russian is a highly effective tactic. He was in moderately sassy spirits against Aljaz Bedene, and it was almost like he knew the story going into the match was “Bedene will beat him because he will have lapses in concentration”. As a result, he really didn’t have any of those. Bublik executed his dropshots well, he served pretty good, and he really was solid from the baseline. The result was pressure on Bedene service games late in sets, and the errors came.
Lajovic had the tough time he was expected to with Stakhovsky. Time and time again Stakhovsky plays a young player on the challenger tour who’s expected to win and yet Stakhovsky hangs onto his serve and squeaks out a win. Lajovic did the Lajovic thing though and kept the ball in the court until he could find errors. Where Bedene failed, Lajovic will succeed? This really is a great 2nd round of matchups, because Bublik is likely to beat Lajovic the same way he beat Bedene. The formula is simple, but it depends on Bublik errors and Bublik mobility struggling. He was fit, and solid his first round. It would be strange if he wasn’t here, and if Lajovic struggled to break the Stakhovsky serve, Bublik is going to have a good chance at this one. Bublik in 4.
Mannarino Kecmanovic : Mannarino took a large chunk out of a lot of ppl’s bankrolls on Sunday. He was pretty error free from start to finish and he exposed Novak’s trouble on tour which is a lack of power. He’s a great player in a similar fashion to Fucsovics, but when he plays the better retrievers and better power hitters he struggles to win easy points. Mannarino has a way of looking so effortless while playing that it almost seems like his opponent needs to force offense. His problem is similarly power, and so it’s a good question if Kecmanovic has enough to clear this hurdle. Mannarino did beat him in their only previous meeting, but Kecmanovic has had some abysmal stretches on tour, and seems to be at his best right now. A straight sets beatdown of Majchrzak doesn’t mean a lot for 2nd round major implications, but he played a good match with Sinner last week and when he’s on his game, he’s a very promising baseliner. I don’t see a way to know what’s going to happen here. Mannarino is extremely difficult to hit through without a big serve or a huge forehand, and Kecmanovic is likely to give up errors but also take control of a lot of baseline rallies. When it’s over I’ll say “of course!” but going in this is a big question mark because of Kecmanovic’s recent surge in quality. I’m writing an article though, so hmm. Mannarino in 4 but the upset wouldn’t be too surprising here and Kecmanovic will likely give Zverev some trouble in the next round if he can get through this.
Cressy Zverev : Nice work for Cressy reversing that results against Daniel. Zverev struggled early but then seemed inevitable to win the match. This has been the formula for him since last year’s US Open. Perhaps he doesn’t warm up, or perhaps it’s just difficult for tall people to come out of the gate moving quickly, but Zverev is very flat and awkward in the first set, and then gradually opens up a bit. Since he’s such a heavy favorite, a lot of his opponents come in redlining and as Zverev’s level slightly increases and his errors get cleaned up as a result, his opponents can suddenly struggle to find easy points. Add in the Zverev serve which is inconsistent but huge, and he’s a real tough out in an early round. Cressy is entertaining, and can make a set close since his serve and volleying is frustrating and Zverev’s brain is made of cabbage, but this is one way traffic. Zverev in 3.
Thiem Koepfer : Kukushkin looked dangerous early, but Thiem kinda found his game as things went on, and his power is always there to draw on when things are tough. Koepfer is in the spot that he always is in. He’s a huge underdog, and doesn’t have much of a chance. As a result, I expect him to overperform. His offense is real, and he won’t make errors just because of the name on the other side of the net. Thiem will give you chances to play, and although he’s focused on winning, losing isn’t in his mind. This means that although there in an umpire, Thiem is not really keeping score. Losing a break going for the right shot doesn’t concern him, and similar to Federer he is not averse to going down a break and breaking right back. Being lefty is a decent advantage for Koepfer in dealing with Thiem’s backhand, but being short and dealing with the topspin on Thiem’s forehand will be a grind. I think Koepfer may steal a set, but this is probably optimism and fear of the sky falling. Thiem in 3-4.
Kyrgios Humbert : Man I don’t like Nick Kyrgios. I keep trying to but it’s so easy to wind up analyzing him when nobody asked me to. Against Ferreira Silva he missed a slice and immediately turned to his box to blurt out “get your girlfriend out of my box”. He missed another shot later and immediately shrieked “don’t sit in my box next time!” He’s worse than a child, because nothing is ever his fault. He’s the type of person who throws personal attacks at you if you correct them about some info they had wrong, and it is extremely uncomfortable watching him suffer his own mind. I think it’s pretty clear to everyone that Nick should go live with some goats for a while. Free, happy, in the mountains. Clean air, goats as far as the eye can see. And when Nick issues a complaint, he’ll get interrupted by “BWEHHHHH”. Wait is Rublev there? Or do goats make the same sound. Did he plagiarize goats? Possible. Whatever.
Kyrgios, despite being the person making a scene at a restaurant because the waiter made a mistake, is great at tennis. So great at tennis, that he pretty much improves with every match he plays in an event. That makes the next matchup very juicy. A mundane loss to Coric last week because he couldn’t hang in long rallies is likely to look similar to this contest, but playing a full tie with Ferreira Silva (a lefty who doesn’t really make errors) is the perfect warmup to play Humbert.
Humbert looked great in his first round against Uchiyama. He served well, he looked very comfortable in rallies, and there was no wavering emotion or struggle. He has one of the brightest futures in tennis, as he has built an excellent foundation of court coverage and simple composed offense. Add in that sometimes he serves amazing, and he is set to beat Kyrgios at his own game. Humbert’s speed will negate most of the dropshots, Humbert’s forehand is excellent at hitting passes on the run, and Humbert backhand is a half a target, but Kyrgios doesn’t really wear down his opponents in that sense. His forehand can flatten out and be amazing, but it’s a big whippy at times and doesn’t get through the court. In this contest I see Nick scoring a lot of easy points on his serve, but in the past week or so he hasn’t really shown the ability to dominate his opponents service games. Whoever wins the tiebreakers here will win, but it’s Kyrgious who will have to get to them. Humbert in 4-5. What strikes me as funny is that no matter who Kyrgios plays from this point on, it’s really hard to pick him as the eventual winner. The rest of the tour is dependable and Nick is a question mark. I look forward to the new Nick who returns from the goats with newfound wisdom.
Dimitrov Bolt : Grigorrrrrrrr. No blinking, no thinking. Dimitrov played well in his first round against Cilic, and served exceptionally well. It isn’t fair how they make the net higher than Cilic is used to, and he protested by hitting balls into the tape over and over. And over. It’s hard to watch a guy who’s so potentially dominant be 6 inches off on every shot, but it’s hard for the dude to gain confidence. Perhaps a trip to goat mountain? I wanted to take Dimitrov in the next round, but I also wanted to take Bolt. Alex Bolt gave Gombos a quick beatdown. Bolt has been a stalwart in the qualifying at the AO for a few years now but never really travelled on the tour. The points will start to add up if he does though, and he is a very sharp very capable offensive talent. Add in some exceptional speed, and you have a good recipe for an upset here.
The question marks, and there are some in most of the 2nd round contests on the men’s side, are Dimitrov’s level. Last week he played a great match against Popyrin, and then lost in straight sets to a crafty lefty in Moutet. This week, he plays a great match against Cilic, and now plays a craftier lefty in better form? It’s a bit of storytelling to say the results have to line up, and also picking Bolt to get the job done here is tough because last week he had the chance to beat Wawrinka (who is somewhat of a similar level of challenge to Dimitrov and somewhat similar in shot selection), and blinked. A super blink. So his question marks are when he has the opportunity, what happens? It’ll be tough against this new error-free Dimitrov, and Bolt’s errors can come in bunches when they do. I think he steals a set or two, but it’ll be a whole new level from Bolt if he gets through this, so even though I am a fan of Alex, Dimitrov gets the slight nod. Dimitrov in 5.
Vesely Carreño-Busta : Yay! Kimmer Coppejans was in pole position a number of times in that match, but Vesely is just a nonstop onslaught of heavy shots and offense. He really has found a form that was lacking for entire years on tour recently, and it’s refreshing. His next test though, is one I’m not sure he’ll get through. Vesely’s struggles have really come with errors in this stretch. Similar to Hurkacz, he’s swinging very free and against weaker opponents if he makes a good enough percentage, he wins. Against PCB, you need more than that. Pablo made pretty quick work of Kei, but not to be overlooked are how many times he got broken. This is pretty standard for Pablo, who seems about as likely to break his opponent when they’re serving for the set as he does to be broken himself in that spot. Overall though, he’s very consistent and doesn’t struggle against power, so this matchup is tough for Vesely to get through.
The Vesely serve is likely better than PCB, and that’ll need to be on for him to keep this close. Ultimately, I think he won’t win more than one set. PCB in 4.
Shapovalov Tomic : One last win for Shapo. Sinner’s performance on wobbly legs was insane against Travaglia, and to turn it around and almost beat Shapovalov the next day just adds to it. This was a match that I fully expected Sinner’s team to have him withdraw from. There will be plenty of Australian Opens in his future and risking injury playing overtired doesn’t seem sensible. Tell that to the kid who wobbled around between rallies while pretty much playing even with Shapovalov though. Jannik Sinner just doesn’t miss shots, and he has such a pure mind for tennis that he really injects depth, height, and angle at the same time. Denis did a good job to get through this, but was extremely lucky with the circumstances. I’m gonna say that was his last win against Sinner for a few years, and Sinner missed a backhand at 15 all in the 5th when he was looking like he’d break back that really was uncharacteristic. It was the first moment where I saw him kinda realize “oh i’m gonna win!” and that can lead to accelerating the swing too much. It’s similar to how hitting at a closing target can make u rush the ball there and end up missing. The way Shapovalov played was really impatient which served a good and bad purpose. One, he’s not a favorite in rallies against Sinner and Sinner was fatigued. On the other hand though, keeping rallies short made his error count really high and he had a lot of spots where he could have easily lost this match with an error instead of a winner or a double when he served a good second serve.
Anyway, Tomic got a withdrawal which is gross. Shapovalov in 3.
Duckworth Auger-Aliassime : James Duckworth plays hard. In the past he was given opportunities on tour and seemed like a pretty generic player, but I see the talent now. He has clearly been playing a ton of tennis and is hitting the ball very sharp. Dzumhur has kinda hovered off tour for a year now and it doesn’t look likely that he gets back on. He’s getting outworked and his attitude has never been the best on-court. FAA on the other hand has no attitude on-court. He’s pretty calm, composed, and seems incredible when he’s winning. Then come the problems though, and I think he’ll have some here. Duckworth is in no way shape or form a similar talent to FAA. He has to earn all his points the hard way, but he’s been pushing the pace and getting to net very frequently, and if anything is going to throw FAA off his game in this match, it’s that. FAA has timing issues here and there on his backhand, and when he’s struggling in the rally, his serve can go as well. Unfortunately, I can’t just predict a major implosion from a dude who’s played 2 good weeks of tennis already. I would never back FAA in this spot, but it would be the largest upset so far (sorry Mladenovic) if Duckworth pulled this off. He just doesn’t have the caliber of win in his pocket to say that he’ll do it. Still though, Duckworth is a funny name, and like you, I have always been moderately fond of ducks. FAA in 4 or a moderately momentous duck decision in 5.
Gerasimov Karatsev : Gerasimov finally edged out Paire, but it wasn’t very convincing. The awkwardly decided serving duel always seemed like Paire would go down, but it took quite some time. Even in a slump, his serve and backhand combo are extremely dangerous. Karatsev looked great against Mager, who never really had a look at winning a set. Opening Karatsev as a -180 favorite is going to make a lot of people confused, as Gerasimov is a household name for those following the tour closely and Karatsev has really only played in a handful of tour events and lost early. These two played recently though, and Karatsev beat him convincingly. There is a question of fatigue for the big ol Gerasimov as well, having played a bunch of good matches last week and a long one with Paire a night ago. I’m inclined to believe that this is a very close matchup, and I’ll take the fresher legs. Breaking Gerasimov multiple times is a tough test, but Karatsev did that previously. Karatsev in 4.
Muller Schwartzman : Muller went crazy on Londero. I tuned in after the first set and Muller was serving excellent, but also was leaning into backhand angles that didn’t really seem like they were there. The hope was he’d land somewhere in the draw where he could continue this run, but the young talent has drawn Diego “Cool Rappin Turtle” Schwartzman. Diego had a tougher time with Elias Ymer than his -5000 pricetag would indicate, and perhaps a good caveat to offer about tennis wagering is that no one on tour is -5000 against anyone. Everyone in the top 200 is an extremely talented player and given the opportunity can execute shots that are just plain effective. There is a level of offense possible with a tennis racquet where the opponent does not quite matter, and just because someone “should” win doesn’t mean that the work and focus necessary to complete the job isn’t taxing on them and difficult to produce. Djokovic/Nadal/Federer have been absurd outliers, but the rest of these guys can have bad days and a set of tennis can be a long grind but also is relatively short. The most frequent outcome in the sport is that the favorite wins but not as convincingly as oddsmakers project. This is because oddsmakers are not setting a prediction for the outcome (generally), but are estimating the $ investment that will come in on both sides of the event. If they balance that $ (they almost always do within reason), they pass the $ back and forth and take their fee. This is why books really don’t ever lose in the longterm.
Anyway, Schwartzman has a tough one here when Muller is on offense. Muller is a good server, and has very good composure on court. The problem for him is that this will take more work than any tennis match he has ever played. Diego is a guy who hits everything back, and constantly gives you very little to work with. I can clearly remember times where Diego was facing a dangerous offense and wasn’t at his sharpest, and he won those contests anyway. Schwartzman in 4.
Rublev Monteiro : If Yannick Hanfmann seemed ineffective, it’s only because of his opponent. Hanfmann is a great talent, and will be on tour for a while. Monteiro continued his great run against Martin, and now it’s just kinda over. He won’t struggle or fall apart in this match, but Rublev is just kinda at another level now. Rublev in 3.
Lopez Sonego : Lopez with a nice draw and a nice win. He’s always a threat to serve out a set and he has enough skill to earn errors, but here he plays Sonego who just got through Querrey in fine form. This is one where I’d think Lopez had a better chance in the first round but after seeing Sonego do well from the jump, he has to be a pretty good favorite here. Still a serving battle, so this could take a while. Sonego in 4-5.
Ruud Paul : Casper Ruud probably earned the retirement from Thompson, as he really was sharp in this match. He was sharp last week too, and it makes his match with Tommy Paul good quality to watch, but hard to predict. Paul won their only previous meeting, but Ruud has gotten worlds better since then. Paul has the serving game and offense to trade sets with most guys on hardcourt, and Ruud plays a bit generic at times which will allow Paul’s backhand down the line to create some damage, but I don’t see a way for Paul to win this match without putting on the kind of performance that will propel him well into the 4th round. Ruud in 4-5.
O’Connell Albot : These two won in similar fashion. Struff ran O’Connell all over the court, but the ball kept coming back. O’Connell got onto the tour by grinding out wins on the challenger circuit, and he hugs the baseline and reflects power better than a lot of guys on tour. He is a brilliant pusher, even though those words don’t sound like they belong together. Struff played fine and returned well, he just missed every last shot of every important rally.
Similarly, Albot outlasted RBA. The announcers discussed RBA trying to shorten the points, but he really has never done that in his career, and his backhand was actually awful in this one, as well as his movement. Add in that Radu Albot is an amazing human being and served extremely well, and you have a feelgood outcome.
I loved the way Albot played against RBA, but I don’t think he’ll win points as easily against O’Connell. I’m not sure really how he’ll win points at all, and I could say the same for O’Connell. In a match between two very fast and very consistent players, the winner is usually whoever has a bit more stamina. I oddly suspect it’s O’Connell. Forgive me, O’Connell in 4.
Harris Popyrin : What a good job by Harris in the first round of weathering the storm. Torpegaard was everywhere and was crushing the ball. Nonstop pressure and Harris really looked to be in trouble, but he kept the ball in the court until Torpegaard’s level dropped and then it was smooth sailing. Harris has had good success in Australia and even though he’s played the crowd-favorite in Popyrin, he has a good chance here. Popyrin beat Goffin in an amazing comeback. The crowd was loud and genuine, and Goffin just kinda got tired. He’s had some difficult outings since he had Covid, and there’s a good chance that his stamina/training are just not back to normal yet. The crowd cheering for Popyrin (who saved multiple match points in the 4th) actually made him smile. He sat on his bench after breaks smiling and just really happy and amazed at the moment, and I shed a couple turtle tears into the lake watching. A great moment for him, and he really has all the tools to go far on tour. The tough thing for him is deciding when to let the offense go. He has a tendency to play safe and them miss going for a big acceleration of pace. I’d like to see him go guns blazing from the start honestly, as his weapons are dangerous and his defense is subpar. The serve is great, and his match with Harris should be a bit of a shootout. Where I think Harris has the edge is in fitness. Goffin would have won the match if his level hadn’t dropped, and it actually started to just become Goffin spewing errors. I think Popyrin could be a bigtime player, but I’m not sure if he’ll outlast Harris who just outlasted a very similar and more consistent offensive player. Harris in 4-5.
McDonald Coric : McDonald struggled early, as Cecchinato does not just disappear simply because he’s on hardcourt, but he does disappear when it’s time for the second round, and Mackie gets some much-needed puntos. Coric was in a war against Pella, but one that he never surrendered. Pella served for the set a few times, but got broken each time. I expect a similar outcome here, but in fewer sets. McDonald can hang in rallies and this match will have a lot of them, but Coric is a bit too consistent and Mackie still makes errors when he plays offense. Coric in 3
Krajinovic Andujar : Thunder booms. A jaguar awakens somewhere in the South Pole. “It is time,” says an old tree to a quiet forest. A monkey throws a rock into a still lake. “ANDUJAR!” it booms. The monkey throws another rock. “ANDUJAR!” it booms. A man appears, or is it more than a man. He quietly walks up and pats the monkey on the head. “It is time,” he whispers. Just hours later that half man half mirage would step onto the court against Halys. What was it time for? Well, Pablo Andujar’s one hardcourt win that he gets each year. A very good performance, and a testament again to how difficult claycourters are once they get into a rally.
Krajinovic and Haase played a complete highlight reel of a match, and I expect this one to be similar. Some may criticize Kraj for struggling with Haase, but Robin plays a top-tier level of offense and he’s a similar skillful outlier to Jeremy Chardy. The level that Kraj played is a bit better than Andujar, so even though Filip is famous for big letdowns, I think he wins here. Krajinovic in 4.
Carballes-Baena Medvedev : Good win for RCB round one. Now he can enjoy Australia. Medvedev was hitting winners off Pospisil’s serve. The guy is ridiculous and amazing to watch Medvedev in 3.
Tsitsipas Kokkinakis : I expected Kokkinakis to win the first set and then struggle. He did the first part but failed at the second. Kwon is really struggling to win matches on tour, and Kokkinakis serves too well to let him break your serve. I expect this to be close for a while,
but Tsitsipas beating Simon in such quick fashion means he’s not really making errors. Tsitsipas in 4.
Alcaraz Ymer : Alcaraz benefitted greatly from Van De ZandSchulp having a very poor serving day. He just couldn’t land first serves, and Alcaraz teed off on the second serve offerings. Up next is a resplendent Mikael Ymer, who hung in there against Hurkacz until the errors came. This is a good test for Alcaraz because Ymer doesn’t get tired, hits a very solid ball, and is faster than really most guys on tour. Offense vs defense really, but here I don’t expect Alcaraz to struggle. He had some tough losses on clay to guys with top level defense like Coria, but on hardcourt it’s really tough to outplay a guy who’s so competent in the rallies. This is a similar letdown spot to last week though where Alcaraz beat Goffin (we’re now seeing that wasn’t such a major accomplishment given David’s struggles) and then lost quickly to Monteiro on a windy day. Very slight lean towards Alcaraz here but I wouldn’t really back either of these guys as it’s a brand new matchup, and both are at new peaks in their career. Alcaraz in 4.
Khachanov Berankis : Khachanov continued his good play from last week, although he dropped a set to the big hitting Vukic. Berankis had the easiest draw of the event really, as Nagal never wins off clay. Khachanov is in a tiny bit of danger here as Berankis doesn’t give anything away, but the serve and the power are a big edge to the Russian. Khachanov in 4.
Machac Berretini : Great win for Machac even though Vilella Martinez had to retire. He brought pace and consistency from start to finish and that’s what’s necessary on tour. Berretini looked like he’d lose the first, but he seems to have a bit of the oomph that was missing from his play at the end of last year, and Anderson really looked in bad trouble after losing the first. Machac can acquit himself nicely here, and he has a similar game to Giron who gave Berretini trouble (he may even be better in time), but Berretini in form is just too hard to break. Berretini in 3.
Fognini Caruso : Maybe PCB’s loss to Fognini last week doesn’t look so bad, after watching him cruise through Herbert. This brings up a somehow first time matchup against Caruso, who’d been carrying Italian tennis in a lot of the events on tour. There isn’t much ability to predict Fognini matches, and honestly it is a puzzle whether he’ll compete or not on a given day. Even in a match where things can go well, he can get disrespected by a butterfly and tank. He seems lately to have been distracted by arguing with hawkeye, and attempting to challenge calls even though the system is automated.
Caruso is supremely skillful, and has been competing hard on tour for a while. I don’t see him going away here, and I think if he’s able to get an early lead that Fognini will throw his hands up and spray errors wildly. If Fognini is able to hang within 1 set, I think he competes. Still, I give the nod to the guy who’s been putting in the hard yards on tour. Caruso in 5.
De Minaur Cuevas : Alex De Minaur is just reliable at beating guys he should. He outworked Tennys Sandgren, and now has a very winnable match against a resurgent Cuevas. It’s good for Cuevas to get wins, and his athleticism was on full display as he frustrated Seppi into errors while standing 10 feet behind the baseline. I think that although Cuevas is able to compete at a high level sometimes, De Minaur is too disciplined for this to get out of hand. He’s willing to work the point, and he’s good at closing to net which will cause trouble for Pablo’s positioning.
Norrie Safiullin : Cam Norrie and Evans had the war we wanted them to, and Norrie came out on top which must drive Evans crazy. Safiullin beat Ivashka pretty easily, and he’ll have a good shot here. This is the classic Norrie matchup where his defense and work ethic are up against an offensive talent who shouldn’t be able to beat him but might. I’m excited to see what happens, but Safiullin doesn’t have this kind of win in his bag yet. Oddsmakers set this at -290 +230 though, so given that Norrie is a way larger market, they’re not exactly writing off Roman’s chances with fresh legs. Norrie in 4 is the most likely outcome.
Nadal Mmoh : Nadal in 3. He was great yesterday and Mmoh won a heartfelt battle but he’s not there yet.

I watch a horror movie every day, here are the best ones I watched in 2020

(2020) Invisible Man 9/10
This remake, simply put, is excellent. I’m a huge fan of Leigh Whannell and while I do think the story itself is fantastic, it’s his directing that blew me away. This movie is so fucking tense without showing anything for a huge majority of its runtime. When shit actually starts to go down, it’s the definition of thrilling. Elisabeth Moss killed her role.
(2020) The Rental 8/10
The meat and bones of this movie is a character driven drama story. It’s tense and having so much knowledge right away as the viewer that the characters don’t have is frankly anxiety inducing, in a good way. I thought all four main performances were fantastic, especially Sheila Vand. There’s a moment in the film where everything is abruptly subverted in a grand horror fashion and depending on your tastes, that may be off-putting. To me, it was absolutely genius. Dave Franco directed the fuck out of this movie and eliminated all the comfort of campiness that great slashers usually hold.
(2020) Relic 8/10
Robyn Nevin is fantastic here and all the supporting roles are great but not only does this woman make the movie, she is the movie. Her dialogue, her delivery and her body language, at least to me, are a huge chunk of the entire plot. I just found this movie to be gentle until it isn’t, which makes for the most tense moments. It’s a very claustrophobic film; I think it does justice to a very serious and frightening illness.
(2020) Palm Springs 8/10
It doesn’t take long to catch on that, while this is a romantic comedy, it’s also a sci-fi horror film and a specific subset of sci-fi that makes me anxious. So in some regards, at least to genre placement, there’s my bias. The movie is seriously a treat though. It’s a new spin on an old formula and it’s genuinely funny, suspenseful and endearing. Even if you disagree that it shouldn’t be discussed in the horror circles, you won’t regret watching it.
(2020) Shirley 7/10
It’s an incredibly interesting film for many reasons but mostly because it exists as a biopic, as well as a psychological horror film. Jackson is played Elisabeth Moss who is just wonderful. She really brought to life the internal struggle of Jackson. I’d suggest doing some research before diving into this because her profession during the time period was not glamorous or widely accepted, which gives context to, well, everything.
(2020) Becky 8/10
Kevin James was fantastic. He’s a sadistic fuck in this movie. But he doesn’t deserve all the credit and the writers don’t either. I’m going to highlight Greta Zozula here. The most powerful moments in this entire film were purely cinematography based. Melanie Garros and Jenn McGouran deserve a shoutout as well. This was a cookie-cutter home invasion film at its core and these people, among others, made it one of my favorite home invasion films of the decade. Alissa Gee deserves recognition too for creating the most disgusting moment I’ve seen in a minute.
(2019) Parasite 9/10
This film is most obviously on-the-nose but in the same breath, so incredibly impactful. I can’t even describe the seamless transition from black comedy to horror. It’s a heartbreaking view on classism and poverty while also just being a thrilling experience. Every single performance is remarkable and natural. I’m not even sure what else to say without spoiling it. This film isn’t just specific to Asian culture but very relevant to anyone feeling that they’re in a rut.
(2019) Villains 8/10
The premise is sort of simple but the horror is in the details. i loved how everything played out and I thought all four main actors did an incredible job. Everything was super convincing which had me invested and tense. There’s a scene at the end, despite the movies dark, comedic aspects, that was really sweet and very climactic.
(2019) Swallow 9/10
Haley Bennett delivers a heartbreaking performance with a powerful but melancholy ending. The narrative itself is twisted and sadistic. This film make me anxious, depressed and in the end, I’m not sure it offered much reprieve. I loved this film but I’d caution anyone going through mental trauma to venture cautiously into it. It doesn’t promote anything negative but the subject matter can be difficult.
(2019) Nimic 8/10
When I googled the name of this film it gave me the Romanian translation of “nothing” but also, “everything”. For a 10-minute short it offers so much. It felt like a powerfully dark statement about performance in general.
(2019) The Head Hunter 9/10
This was one of the most creative, restrained yet somehow absolutely insane movies I’ve seen all year. I’m absolutely blown away. The exposition is limited and told so refreshingly through almost entirely visuals. It’s caused many viewers frustrations but for me, it was absolutely the best aspect. That’s saying a lot because visually, stylistically, it’s fucking remarkable. I’ve heard people say this movie is boring and to me, there’s not a dull moment throughout the entire film, not a single wasted shot. It’s thrilling, dark, gritty, campy at times and embodies this identity that’s both somehow fluid and refined. It feels like an arthouse film in its minimalism but avoids any pretentiousness you may associate with that sub-genre. Jordan Downey has done some intentionally so-bad-it’s good movies in the past and he clearly wanted to still reference those aspects through some of his shlocky, 50’s horror inspirations in here; especially Fiend Without a Face. That’s a creative decision that will turn a lot of people off but I just really appreciated it and it made the actual watching experience so incredibly fun.
(2019) The Lighthouse 9.5/10
This film is among the few that I felt compelled to watch it again almost immediately. It’s so incredibly rich in every aspect that can make a movie successful. The visuals are jaw-dropping; almost every single frame of this film is photographic. The soundtrack is stripped down to just these haunting sounds of fog horns and piss buckets. The package everything is delivered in, from an artistic standpoint, is so memorable. The performances by Pattinson and Dafoe are both some of the best I’ve seen this entire year and really, the decade…possibly of all time. They deliver this brilliant script’s dialogue with such passion, humor and intensity. The story in this film is shrouded in mystery but the clues and tools needed to decipher it do exist and with a rewatch, finding them felt so rewarding. It’s the kind of movie that I want to make my friends watch, simply so I have someone to discuss it with. It’s one of the best horror films I’ve ever seen.
(2019) I Trapped the Devil 7/10
This one is a bit of a slow-burn but I felt the tension from beginning to end so none of it felt like a blind investment. It had the potential to be another, cookie-cutter, pretentious statement but what I found it to be was simply a well-crafted horror film.
(2019) Pet Sematary 7.5/10
The original film was entertaining to me but I felt it was also dated and a bit too unintentionally silly for my tastes. So going into this, I was hoping for a darker, more serious film and I’m happy to say, that’s what I got.
(2019) Guns Akimbo 7.5/10
This is non-stop gory action, an absurd story and an insane performance by Radcliffe, who I’m such a big fan of at this point. The best part? It’s genuinely, laugh-out-loud funny, both through physical comedy and clever dialogue.
(2019) Harpoon 7/10
I enjoyed this movie a lot and I mean “enjoyed” in every sense of the word. It was the kind of movie to stop making me think so critically about the acting and cinematography because I just find the stranded genre so fun. This movie really delivered in both dark humor and pure, unpredictability.
(2019) Annabelle Comes Home 7/10
I know that Gary Dauberman has worked closely with the series so he definitely understands Wan’s Conjuring universe’s vibe. I mean that from both a pacing and cinematography standpoint. I loved that all the possessed artifacts come into play.
(2019) Vivarium 8/10
This movie is fucking terrifying. The cast may even be too loaded because it’s the environment and Senan Jennings that makes everything so scary. The final 30 minutes of this film are a complete mindfuck and just left my jaw on the floor.
(2019) It Chapter 2 9/10
It embodies the heartfelt, character driven story of King’s novel so incredibly well. Every single performance by the adult actors is fantastic and as much as people didn’t like the overuse of humor, it felt like a natural evolution to me. Things were destined to be less scary with the adult characters coming into contact with an evil they’ve faced before. The last 30-min to me were just so touching, sad and it was the culmination I was hoping for.
(2019) Zombieland: Double Tap 7.5/10
It’s certainly a sequel as far as sequels go but I had a ton of fun with it and it was great to see this group back together. It’s a super cheesy film and I would expect some hate but the original is cheesy fun too, if even to a lesser extent.
(2019) The Color Out of Space 7/10
The entire suspense if the film is how each individual character reacts to this unknown force but Cage’s is of course the most volatile. I love the body horror and I think the entire movie is pretty goddamn exciting in that aspect. It goes so far beyond what you’d expect.
(2019) Joker 9.5/10
To have a Batman-universe film stand out this much among all the others is incredible. This film intentionally evokes almost every emotion until a raw, chilling finale. Gotham is unkempt, unstable and teetering.
(2019) Come to Daddy 7.5/10
This movie is definitely a dark comedy but it’s incredibly interesting in that, among the dark humor, is a real horror movie and a very graphic one at that.
(2019) The Lodge 9/10
The misdirects in this story are excellent and I was blown away about how well the cinematography was used to manipulate the viewer. It feels like it’s twist after twist but in reality, nothing changes and that’s the scariest aspect to the entire movie.
(2019) Home with a View of the Monster 7/10
They do a fantastic job of storytelling, switching timelines and perspectives throughout the film. It’s a technique that’s been around longer than we’ve all been alive but one that’s not easily mastered.
(2019) Ready or Not 7.5/10
It’s just a ton of fun and Samara Weaving is fantastic. There’s so much great meta-humor and the effects are top notch. I think this sub-genre of sadistic games being played has been done to death so it was a welcomed surprise to see a film do it in such a successful way.
(2019) The Platform 9.5/10
One of my favorite things about horror is that you can trace history itself through the decades, with films reflecting the current political, social and economic state around the globe. First we has Us and then another incredible film Parasite, all with similar desperate themes of class instability. Then you have The Platform, which in its pure brutalism combines horror, religion and politics to make an incredibly powerful statement.
(2019) I See You 9/10
This film consistently surprised, disappointed and impressed me throughout its runtime based purely on my own expectations. It frankly made a fool out of me.
(2019) The Vast of Night 7/10
This movie is pretty low-budget but they really worked with what they had to create this warm, throwback aesthetic that just tickled my tiny little nuts. It’s a dialogue driven, on-the-nose Twilight Zone homage and I really enjoyed it.
(2019) John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum 8/10
The choreography and production is mesmerizing. This might be a Hollywood mainstream action film but the kills are powerful and fucking brutal.
(2018) Bloodline 7.5/10
Sean William Scott is a forever type casted actor but has managed to break free of that throughout the years and this is another great example of him doing just that. His performance is reserved but effective.
(2018) Gwen 8.5/10
It’s an incredibly heartbreaking story that, while exists in the folk-horror genre, subverts any and all expectations. Eleanor Worthington-Cox and Maxine Peaks carry the entire film.
(2018) Freaks 8/10
Emile Hirsch, Amanda Crew and Lexy Kolker were all great but it was Bruce Dern who blew me away. He’s such a powerful on-screen presence; just his delivery alone establishes a lot of the more horrifying elements to this film.
(2018) Overlord 8/10
I thought it would be a traditional zombie movie and the circumstances would be the twist but it was its own thing. It’s kind of difficult to describe but I think action-war-horror would be the closest thing I could pin it too. Jovan Adepo was a great fucking lead.
(2018) Monster Party 7.5/10
It’s awesome to experiment but this is a film that will appeal to almost everyone without feeling unoriginal or sold out. This is dark humor at its most enjoyable and the practical effects and gore are fucking awesome.
(2018) Pledge 7.5/10
It’s a simple premise but so well executed. I loved the ending and pretty much 95% of the creative decisions. This isn’t a bloodbath of a horror film but it’s violent as hell.
(2018) High Life 7/10
This film is a really uncomfortable watch from beginning to end. It’s filled with violent, psychosexual imagery, a disjointed narrative and cum. It ends and if you don’t outright hate it, it’s hard to explain why you like it because it’s such a rough watch. I fall in the latter category.
(2018) Possum 8/10
I love the way the story unfolds in the end, just methodically bit-by-bit until a crushing reveal. I felt for this main character and his pain seemed so real.
(2018) Wildling 8/10
Bel Powley and Liv Tyler both play very complimentary fantastic roles. There’s an extended portion of the film that’s almost uplifting and pleasantly strange, following their relationship with each other. I’m happy to say things turn sinister quickly and the last 30-minutes are a wild ride, to say the least.
(2018) The Nightingale 9.5/10
Jennifer Kent decided to put in such a universally disgusting scene that had people walking out of screenings and almost justifiably so. It’s really difficult to watch in portions. It’s just fortunate she followed it up with a masterpiece.
(2017) John Wick: Chapter 2 8/10
These assassins dance so carefully around innocent civilians that it almost comes off as a black comedy, in a great way.
(2017) My Friend Dahmer 8/10
To me, especially with Ross Lynch’s performance, it was an equally endearing and chilling film. It humanized someone who I’ve always considered to be a literal monster, which is something I don’t know how to feel about.
(2017) One Cut of the Dead 7/10
This movie is super creative and pretty fucking hilarious. It feels like a modern day Bowfinger.
(2017) Marrowbone 7.5/10
The characters portrayed are vibrant and fully realized, whether it be through substance or lack-there-of. I obviously don’t actively try and predict movies like a gameshow but this film seemed to excel in misdirect.
(2016) White Girl 8/10
It reminded me a lot of Larry Clark’s Kids but actually intelligently modernized to make a statement on these neighborhoods on the fringe of gentrification.
(2016) The Lighthouse 7.5/10
Mark Lewis Jones and Michael Jibson play their respective roles as the lighthouse keepers really well. Towards the end of the film when the story demands even more of them both, they truly deliver.
(2015) Room 9/10
Brie Larson is an incredible actress and plays this profoundly realistic character. There's moments where emotions do bubble over but most of the time, she does so much by doing so little.
(2015) Jurassic World 7.5/10
Some people will be completely turned off by some of the more absurd and out-there plot elements but I have to say, despite it being cheesy on paper, a lot of the newer sci-fi concepts just happen to work. This is bound to forever be kind of divisive but I liked it.
(2015) Tag 8.5/10
It’s like Tokyo Gore Police meets The Matrix. Sono makes a powerful statement on film media, gender oppression and interestingly enough, he doesn’t leave himself out of the lens of criticism.
(2015) The Invitation 9/10
This movie’s horror aspect is incredibly telegraphed and manipulated with these creepy violin sounds. However, Karyn Kusama’s impeccably clean cinematography and direction use all of that to its benefit.
(2014) John Wick 8/10
I saw this movie in theaters and let me just say, as a beagle owner, this may be my favorite revenge movie. Keanu Reeves is badass as shit and it was the first film in a long time to make me interested in action.
(2014) Spring 8.5/10
It feels helpless and hopeful at the same time, Benson’s script is amazing. I’ve always said that films shot in idyllic landscapes are a blank canvas for horror. There’s so much beautiful contrast.
(2014) The Treatment 7.5/10
This film is so unnerving, dark and depressing. The bones of it are structured like any crime thriller but the meat of it is pure depravity.
(2014) Clown 8/10
This is body horror and one of the better ones out there; the slow, methodical transformation throughout this movie was so effective.
(2014) The Incident 9/10
Bleak doesn’t even begin to describe this film. It’s pure nihilism, screamed loudly into the universe.
(2014) The Guest 8.5/10
I fucking love the story, Dan Stevens is fantastic and the production was cleanly executed. It’s Adam Wingard’s best film so far.
(2013) Blue Ruin 9/10
It’s a standout to me among revenge films. Macon Blair’s character isn’t some bloodthirsty ex-navy seal bent on revenge. He’s a completely broken man that’s overcome by heartbreak.
(2013) Evil Dead 7.5/10
It’s one of the few examples where a remake of a classic, near perfect movie, actually works.
(2013) Redemption 8/10
The film is shot so well, the editing and portrayal of the visuals all correspond to the ebb and flow of his characters physical and mental health.
(2013) Under the Skin 9/10
The second death in this movie is one of the most remarkably unsettling scenes I’ve witnessed to date.
(2011) The Strange Thing About the Johnsons 7/10
Astor flips child molestation on its head in a tense, sickeningly well-made film and I absolute hate it. Do not watch this movie, this will only detract from your overall happiness.
(2011) Contagion 9/10
There’s some fantastic performances by Paltrow, Law, Fishburne and quite a few others. However, it’s the research and writing of this film, the frightening scientific accuracy, that makes it so effective.
(2011) We Need to Talk About Kevin 9/10
This is probably one of the most sensitive subjects you can approach and I’m a huge fan of Lynne Ramsay. Ezra Miller has one of the most chillingly realistic performances of the decade.
(2010) Inception 9.5/10
It’s Nolan’s masterpiece in my mind and that statement isn’t to be taken lightly, as everything he’s done has felt powerful.
(2010) Buried 8/10
This is one of my favorite movies filmed all in one location. It’s tense, claustrophobic (obviously) and it feels genuinely helpless.
(2010) Skeletons 7/10
It’s a strange little film but it’s charming, smart and a refreshing take on the exorcism sub-genre.
(2009) The House of the Devil 8/10
My absolute favorite aspect of this film is the retro feel. It captured 70’s horror so incredibly well. Ti West is a talented filmmaker and this is one of my favorites by him.
(2009) Cropsey 7/10
If there was one thing I really took away from this film, it would be how society and children in particular adapt to unsolved murders.
(2009) The Loved Ones 7.5/10
It reminds of almost a modern day interpretation on The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, if the dinner scene was the entire film.
(2008) Lake Mungo 9/10
This family is so incredibly natural, real and convincing. It’s not too over the top. The horror is hidden in every frame and simultaneously interwoven with heartbreak. Despite many previous and later films attempting to do what it does, I’ve never seen anything like it.
(2007) An American Crime 7.5/10
Elliot Page is wonderful as Sylvia Likens, she just has this innocent nature to her that amplified the violent aspects of the film. I loved the editing of courtroom footage throughout the runtime, it was a constant reminder that what you’re watching actually happened, despite the theatrical nature of the film at times.
(2007) Teeth 8/10
Teeth is actually such an incredibly hard movie to review critically. The film itself, as a whole, is so many things at once. It’s a comedy, an exploitation film, a revenge film and even sort of…a slasher? I have to give respect where respect is due.
(2007) Death Sentence 7/10
This movie is so goddamn intense during the action sequences that it actual reminds me more of a Max Payne video game film adaptation. It’s so over-the-top but in a really entertaining way.
(2007) Timecrimes 8.5/10
I loved this movie when I first saw it but upon re-watching it, I can’t help but stress its influence in the time-loop horror sub-genre. Sure films like Primer definitely helped pave the way but Timecrimes really manages to focus less on the science fiction and more on the horrifying consequences that come with time travel.
(2007) Zodiac 9/10
It’s not the most violent film, it’s much more story driven but the moments of violence feel fucking powerful. The horror in this film isn’t about the serial killer, it’s really about obsession and Gyllenhaal absolutely nails his performance to bring that aspect home.
(2006) Population 436 7/10
It didn’t aim to disgust or push boundaries; it’s just a fun, creepy story with a satisfying ending.
(2006) Children of Men 9.5/10
It’s a bleak film, as bleak as they come from some perspectives but through the violence and despair is a powerful message of hope. Clive Owen’s character is as a broken as the world around him and one of my favorite character arcs of all time.
(2005) Red Eye 7/10
The setup is sinister enough, being in the confines of a plane, to warrant it being discussed as a horror but it does devolve into an action thriller, not that I’m a genre-snob. Both Cillian Murphy and Rachel McAdams are fantastic and it’s a tight knit package.
(2005) The Descent 9.5/10
It’s absolutely terrifying and top-to-bottom, one of the most effective horror movies ever made. After seeing over a thousand horror projects, this still remains one of the most intense, period.
(2005) Constantine 8.5/10
Listen, I’ve obviously never even heard about this comic but let me just say, as a standalone movie, it’s fucking awesome. It’s basically Keanu Reeves battling his way through hell, murking demons and basically just being badass as shit.
(2004) Saw 8/10
It’s one of the most creative projects of the 00’s and a project that launched Wan’s and Whannell’s career. I can safely say, the two of them haven’t had any major misses since. This movie is raw, disturbing and has a strong mystery-driven backbone that makes it iconic and endlessly re-watchable. I absolutely love it.
(2004) Hellboy 7.5/10
Listen, I’m not a fucking nerd who is all-knowing about these comics and how well they translate to film but let me tell you, this movie fucking rocks. Ron Perlman kills this role and has so much personality.
(2000) The Gift 8.5/10
Everyone here is wonderful. If I had to pick a standout though, it would be Giovanni Ribisi. His performance is so raw and emotive. The unstable nature of his character actually held up as the backbone to the mystery portion of this film, making it very much unpredictable.
(1999) The Ninth Gate 9/10
It’s two hours of a giant satanic onion being peeled back layer by layer. It’s clear that when Polanski isn’t raping children, he’s creating filmmaking masterpieces.
(1999) Deep Blue Sea 7.5/10
The science-fiction aspects may be super contrived to someone smarter than I am but the entire movie is so goddamn entertaining. I love all the characters and LL Cool J is particularly hilarious.
(1998) Pi 7.5/10
Aronofsky is challenging religion with science and mathematics and it comes together in a really insane way.
(1997) The Lost World: Jurassic Park 7/10
One scene in particular that stuck with me was the raptors in the tall grass, so aesthetically gorgeous and well-shot. It’s not a perfect movie but Goldblum and Moore are charismatic, it’s fucking action packed and the set pieces are diverse as shit. This isn’t some dialed in bullshit for a quick buck.
(1997) Men in Black 9/10
Vincent D’Onofrio was fucking incredible. The entire villain that is Edgar is one of my favorites of all time. Everything from his speech, his loose-skin and awkwardly stiff gate just really sell it.
(1996) The Craft 7.5/10
I love all the acting and characters but Fairuza Balk is probably my favorite. She’s just so eclectic and over-the-top.
(1995) Tales from the Crypt: Demon Knight 7/10
This is such a fun movie and very much in the Tales from the Crypt vein. It’s campy but super violent too; the practical effects are fucking dope. It’s kind of like Evil Dead meets From Dusk till Dawn. Billy Zane is great in it and just brings a ton of personally to the film. I even really dug the raunchy, meta-horror opening.
(1994) The Mask 7/10
Jim Carrey is his usual, hilarious, eclectic, over-the-goddamn-top self which softens the edges. There’s also a villain though and the same childish aspects don’t apply to him. As a kid, he was kind of scary actually.
(1993) Jurassic Park 9.5/10
Even just typing that title blows my mind, this movie was made in 1993 and 27 years later, it still looks better than most modern monster movies. Jurassic Park is everything. This movie is the perfect blend of horror, action, adventure and sci-fi.
(1991) Highway to Hell 7.5/10
This is an absolutely awesome 90’s horror movie. It has cameos from the entire Stiller family, even fucking Gilbert Gottfried. You also have Chad Lowe, who I truthfully didn’t even know existed. The story, set pieces and script are also all excellent. It’s darkly funny, well-paced and just a wild ride from start to finish.
(1990) The Exorcist 3 8.5/10
This movie, for a film following such an iconic movie, being a third film in a series, is just bafflingly good. The original writer of the first film is returning and his script as well as directorial product both deliver.
(1989) Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade 8/10
Indy is still Indy here, he’s fucking badass; his character and dialogue excel in this entry immensely. Not just dialogue but this film contains some of the best action choreography of the entire series, something that almost seems unfairly diminished through repetition. This movie is fucking awesome.
(1988) Akira 7.5/10
This story is one that would feel very difficult to pull off through traditional media. The level of violence and body horror would possibly be even too much for Cronenberg’s plate. The ending of this film is mind-melting.
(1988) Hellbound: Hellraiser 2 7.5/10
It’s violent, dark, disgusting and gory as fuck. It feels like a fever dream of hell. I loved the female character kind of forcing this disgusting erotic nature and it doubled down on the series soul which is the deadly allure of hell.
(1988) Vampire’s Kiss 7/10
I love American Psycho and watching this, I can see where a ton of the performance inspiration in that film came from. Cage’s body language here is so insanely expressive and probably my favorite part of the entire project. Even if you’ve seen this one before, I highly suggest a re-watch, there’s something special about it.
(1987) Fatal Attraction 7.5/10
Holy shit Glenn Close you goddamn crazy bitch, such a great performance. This movie is so incredibly and exponentially tense as it plays out. I loved Micheal Douglas and the entire film is just a reminder to never fucking cheat.
(1987) The Believers 7/10
It gets a bit absurd at certain points but the cult aspects are awesome. I also think it’s the first horror movie I’ve seen specifically about Santeria. It’s not perfect but it stuck with me.
(1987) The Lost Boys 8/10
Joel Schumacher’s The Lost Boys is so indicative of 80’s horror that it could very well be the face of the decade itself. The one-liners, the practical effects, aesthetics and story are all just wonderful. I’m not sure what else to say, this movie feels like a warm blanket to me.
(1986) Little Shop of Horrors 8/10
Rick Moranis is as goofy as ever and good god…the practical effects are mind-blowing. You’re watching this giant plant movie and it just melts your brain thinking about how it was accomplished.
(1986) Aliens 7/10
They exploited the action of the first film to capture a larger audience and lost what made Alien such an effective horror movie in the first place. I still like this movie because it contains my favorite heroin and monster but I’m sick of acting like the Alien series ever needed a director like Cameron. The ending is absolutely insane and bumps this up a few points for sure.
(1984) The Terminator 8/10
This movie, simply put, is badass as shit. I’m aware the series kind of progresses into more action focused territory with the sequels but the original will always be a horror movie to me. The pacing, the unstoppable force that is Arnold, it’s all thrilling as shit.
(1984) Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom 8/10
I think it’s a scary movie and a really dark turn in the trilogy. There are quirky aspects of it character wise that are kind of goofy but playful. Overall though, goddamn dude, these set pieces are amazing.
(1984) Friday the 13th: The Final Chapter 7/10
Jason is super fucking powerful here; he moves quickly, intelligently and is able to drive the suspense of the movie. The success is greatly attributed to a solid performance by Crispin Glover but more importantly, Corey Feldman. I know Corey gets a lot of shit these days but he was an eclectic child actor.
(1981) Raiders of the Lost Ark 9/10
Raiders of the Lost Arc is such an important movie to me. It helped open my eyes to darker content as a child, for better or worse. Everything that could ever be said about this film has been said, I’m just here to show my appreciation.
(1980) City of the Living Dead 8/10
This movie is batshit insane in the best way possible. It’s ultra-gory, tons of crazy impressive practical effects which are very much Fulci in style. The narrative is a bit confusing but I think, or hope at least, intentionally so.
(1980) The Ninth Configuration 7/10
The Ninth Configuration, while still representing William Peter Blatty’s struggle with religion, is tonally very different from The Exorcist. It’s a tedious, slow, detail oriented, character driven film that exceeds so well because of great writing.
(1979) Nosferatu the Vampire 8/10
This film not only embodies and celebrates the original in terms of structure as well as substance, but in its restrained filmmaking methods; its ability to let shots live without intervention. It’s atmospheric, well-trimmed and just an all-around, exceptional film. Klaus Kinsi as Nosferatu is perfect.
(1979) The Amityville Horror 7/10
I like James Brolin’s character, he’s odd and the axe sharpening is somewhat iconic. The film has both pacing issues as well as dialogue issues. With that being said though, the finale in sinister as fuck and really brings life, quite literally, to this evil house.
(1979) Alien 9.5/10
My love for this single film transcends my love for the genre itself. Ridley Scott pulled off an absolute masterpiece and despite having watched it 25 times, I still cannot comprehend how a film of this quality was pulled off in 1979. It’s as close as perfection can be.
(1978) Dawn of the Dead 8/10
Obviously at first glance you can tell this is a really lengthy film at over 2-hours long. However, the pacing is actually my favorite part. Romero really builds up to the climax slowly and lets you linger in his world for such a long time that it becomes fleshed out through pure exposure.
(1978) Slave to the Cannibal God 7/10
I love the visuals, the story and Ursula Andress’ great big dirty milkers. It’s a wonderful, sleazy little exploitation film. The audio is also fantastic; I just love the way this film is edited all around.
(1977) Shock Waves 7/10
Peter Cushing is awesome and I really liked Brooke Adams as well. Despite the cheesy premise though, this film is dark and moody. The tension and action really builds throughout the film and with the atmospheric nature, you kind of forget the ridiculousness of it all.
(1975) Satanico Pandemonium 7/10
This is a pretty great, atmospheric, old-school exploitation film. It dives right into the temptations of sex and the devil among this convent. It gets pretty fucking dark, especially for the time period, specifically for Mexican horror.
(1974) Vampyres 9/10
It’s dark, moody, sexy and offers one of the most unique vampire film experiences to date. It’s a film that makes Dennis’ idea from It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia about a full-penetration, Dolph Lundgren crime fighting movie seem almost plausible.
(1973) Soylent Green 8/10
I loved all the concepts and details in this film. It took me a bit to get invested but once I was, real food was replaced with gold in my brain watching the plot play out. Charlton Heston did a great job of bringing life to this fictional universe as well through his dynamic and invested performance.
(1973) The Crazies 7/10
There’s this great scene with this old lady knitting that I just adore. The innocent and violent clash in such an effective way. Obviously the horror aspects in that scene, as well as the virus itself are very fictional. The government response though, seems almost plausible, considering how they’re currently handling Covid-19.
(1972) Horror Express 8/10
It’s genuinely creepy to this day and the storyline is ambitious as fuck. I’d be hard-pressed to say it’s not one of the better horror-sci-fis of the 70’s and that category includes some great fucking films.
(1968) Even the Wind is Afraid 8/10
Coming over a decade before Suspiria, I can’t but feel, despite how unknown this film is, how influential it was to the genre. The story is great; it’s not super violent or anything and when they do show anything, it’s so well built up. It’s either a reveal at either peak tension or the opposite, when it’s least expected.
(1967) Our Mother’s House 8/10
Jack Clayton, simply for directing The Innocents, is one of my favorite directors. He manages to capture super poignant emotional moments unlike no one else. We have some great modern directors working today that do the same but in terms of 1960's horror, it was harder to come by.
(1967) Violated Angels 7/10
It’s actually based on an American case, about a man Richard Speck who broke into a hospital in 1966, raped and murdered eight nurses. The cinematography is startling cold. The dialogue is profound and helpless. This has to be up there with the most cynically sexualized piece of exploitation cinema.
(1964) Lady in a Cage 7.5/10
It’s a really great little thriller with a solid performance by Olivia de Havilland and also James Caan. I think this movie captures such a helpless nature really well.
(1964) The Last Man on Earth 7.5/10
I loved this movie. It’s actually one of my favorite Price films, which at least for me, is a bold statement. His films tend to have this warm, campy feel to them but this one actually felt pretty dark and desolate. It still contains those less-serious scenes and bits of dialogue but the writing and ideas themselves feel like a huge leap forward for the horror genre.
(1960) The Virgin Spring 9/10
This is clearly the inspiration for The Last House on the Left and while I appreciate that film immensely, it didn’t evoke the same emotions this one did. The cinematography, per-Bergman, is impeccable.
(1958) The Fly 7.5/10
The plot is actually non-linear and the first half is my favorite. Patricia Owens plays up the paranoia of her character incredibly well and I was actually really happy to see Price in a supporting role.
(1956) Forbidden Planet 8/10
I personally think it’s one of the best sci-fi films of the decade. I know I’m going to get chirped for saying this but there’s even a scene towards the end that I believe could have inspired the tesseract in Interstellar.
(1935) The Black Room 7/10
This is another Universal horror film starring Karloff, directed by Roy Neill. It presents itself with the usual, tight-knit flair you may have come to expect but it somehow has seen much less recognition than any of the major monster movies. I really liked this movie.
(1932) The Old Dark House 8/10
This is also Karloff’s best look to date. I mean seriously, his performance is pretty muted and mostly expressed in body language but he has the same screen presence as Mickey Rourke.

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