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Stay positive. We'll be alright. But I do have some concerns...

Y'all know I can't stand negativity. However, there's always room to discuss team issues like adults. If you want to talk Sixers basketball without stupid memes, trade demands, and nephew takes, let's do it here.
I said I'd wait for the second quarter of the season to be critical about anything, so here we go...
Coaching is, in my opinion, the only thing going wrong so far. All of our other issues stem from this one problem, which I hope is a good thing. Addressing this means we can fix everything else.
First, the good: After watching our great start, I have a lot of faith in our coaching staff's ability to set the table. They very clearly know how to put our guys in the best position to individually succeed.
Now, the bad: Although the coaching staff does a great job of setting things up, their adjustments are borderline terrible, and the team defense is inconsistent at best. They are very clearly relying on raw talent, and that never fails to bite coaches in the ass. Talent can really help to cover for a lot of flaws, but you need solid gameplanning to fall back on when the talent falls flat.
When things start to fall apart, Doc seems reluctant to make the necessarry switches. Dwight's stone hands getting in the way? Leave him in and keep running the same playset. Curry can't get open? Leave him in and keep running the same playset. Kork and Tisse not hitting their 3's? Stubbornly keep them in the lineup together. We've seen this stuff all year so far. In the early games, it made sense. But every game it continues, it's making me more and more nervous.
Last night's Pistons game was really hard to watch. From the very beginning of the game, you could plainly see that our gameplan wasn't working. DHO's at the top of the key were getting stuffed and swiped for the entire first quarter. For the second game in a row (huge red flag), our guys couldn't get open for 3pt shots. Drives to the hoop were met with multiple Pistons defending the rim, and our guys kept having to put up 8-12 foot floaters with no time left on the shotclock. From what I can remember, we barely got PnR's going at all.
The Pistons were very clearly playing an inside-out defense (or pack-line defense). They switched between man and zone on the perimeter, and as the ball moved inward, so did the whole team, expanding and contracting from the free throw line. That's how they were able to give us trouble at the 3pt line and in the paint at the same time. It was actually extremely impressive, and they played it perfectly 2 games in a row.
Now, this was a really solid defense to run against the Sixers, because we rely on Ben, Maxey, and Shake to dribble in and kick out. By constantly cutting off our penetration, they prevented us from finding our flow. However, there are ways around it, and our coaches flat out failed to spot them.
Within 5 minutes last night, damned near everyone in the gamethread knew that Dwight was having an off night. Tony came in and looked great, much to everyone's suprise and delight. And what does he get as a reward? Dwight was back in a few minutes later, flubbing passes and getting boxed out by Mason fucking Plumlee. Last night should have been "the Bradley game." He looked poised and he earned a chance to prove himself. Instead, he got a few minutes in the first half, and a ton of switch-in-switch-out with Dwight for the rest of the night. How is a bench guy supposed to find a rythm like that?
Why didn't Joe and Reed come into the game until the 4th quarter? Seth, Danny, Shake, and Maxey all looked rough last night. They combined for -47. Why not bring in some fresh faces and fresh legs to give those guys more rest? Instead of having 4 guys play 88 combined minutes, we could have spread that over 6 guys. It would allow our starters to play at the end of the game against tired Pistons defenders, and maybe Seth or Danny would have finally got something going.
We made almost no changes to our offensive attack last night, and you could see guys getting pissed. I've noticed over last season and this one that looking at Shake's facial expressions is a good indicator of how guys are feeling. He was shaking his head and staring at the floor a lot last night. And I would bet a thousand euro that Mike Scott saw it too. That's why he got up - in street clothes - and did something. The dude knows when it's time for him to get tough and inject some emotion into the team. It's great for fans to joke about, but every time it happens, it's because the team is playing like shit and frustration is bubbling over. As much as we love to see it, it is not a good thing when Mike Scott gets in someone's face. He sat on the bench last night, saw the bullshit product we were putting out, and decided it's worth a $15,000 fine to stir the pot and get something going. That's 100% on the coaching staff. Mike Scott shouldn't have to do their jobs.
Make. The. Adjustments.
Just to end on a positive note, I do still think we're the best team in the East. I do think we're going to continue to find our groove. And I do think we're going to crush it this season. I just wanted to see what other people thought about this topic. Hopefully this is just early season "finding what works" type stuff, and it'll be sorted out well before the playoffs start.
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Index Fund Bubble - Arguments in Favor and Against

Back in September 2019, Michael Burry predicted an index fund bubble. Since I invest index funds and write about them with relish, I was intrigued. But I quickly moved on.
Then another headline caught my eye. It was an episode of Odd Lots podcast titled, “Why Passive Investing Might Be Distorting the Market.” I immediately listened to the episode, featuring investor and fund manager Mike Green. And then I listened again. Considering a lot of my net worth is currently tied up in index funds, I want to understand why some people think index funds are fools’ gold.
So today, I’m going to play devil’s advocate and talk about both sides of the conversation. Is there an index fund bubble? A market crash around the corner? Or is passive investing still the winning strategy it’s always been?
Below, you’ll find compelling arguments from investors Mike Green and Michael Burry, who both say there is a bubble. Then I’ll follow up with comments from financial analyst Ben Carlson and portfolio manager Ben Felix, both of whom see no bubble . It’s #TeamMike vs. #TeamBen. I’ll also pull some soundbites from Raoul Pal, a former hedge fund manager who now produces financial videos with a silky British accent. And then I’ll add in my own thoughts at the end.

Quick reminder: what’s an index fund?

An index fund owns a wide assortment of assets (e.g. stocks), and owns those assets in proportion to their market share. Uh…that’s a lot of FinSpeak. Let’s break it down.
For an example, let’s look at an S&P 500 index fund. An S&P 500 index fund would own all of the stocks in the S&P 500. Since Apple and Microsoft each make up about 5% of the S&P 500, this index fund would be comprised of about 5% Apple and 5% Microsoft. But Chipotle would only compose about 0.08% of the index, because it’s 0.08% of the S&P. In this way, the index fund is benchmarked to the S&P, like a shadow that follows all of the body’s movements.
Similarly, a “total stock market fund” would own every stock in the market. There are tons of options in the index fund world.
Let’s get into the arguments that claim indexing is now in a bubble.

Part I – Bubble! – “The tail is now wagging the dog”

One of Mike Green’s first points on Odd Lots is this: the original idea behind indexing is that active traders and actively managed funds will dictate how the market behaves, and that a small number of passive investors (e.g. index funds) can simply go along for the ride. The large majority active traders are the dog; the minority passive investors are the tail. The dog does what it wants. The tail only follows.
If dogs don’t do it for you, I like the boat analogy. Think of actively managed funds and active traders as large cruise liners and passive investors as a small canoe. The cruise liner picks its course. The canoe ropes onto the cruise liner and gets a free ride. The cruise liner doesn’t notice the small canoe’s drag whatsoever; its course is unaffected. This big-small relationship is the original assumption behind passive investing. Market behavior is dictated by the active majority, and the passive minority gets a free ride.
However, asserts Green, we now live in a paradigm where active and passive investing are too close in size. Therefore, the fundamental assumption no longer rings true.
Millions of Average Janes and Joes–individual investors–are using index funds to invest huge portions of their income and savings. After all, that’s how many 401(k)s and their non-American equivalents are set up. Green points out how recent U.S. legislation changes are pushing 401(k)s and passive investing even further into the mainstream.
Passive investing is no longer the “small tail.” It’s no longer the canoe. It’s now a fairly large boat, and the active management cruise liner is impacted by towing such a large passive boat.
The past 30 years have seen index funds grow and grow. Index fund inflows are the “single largest transactors in the market by far” Therefore, by definition, they are not passive. Index funds have to be influencing the market. What might this influence look like?

Passive investing influences the market

Let’s go back to our S&P 500 index fund from before. The S&P 500 went up ~30% in 2019. Where does this gain come from?
Some of it probably comes from fundamental growth in the S&P companies. They’re doing better! Active investors respond by saying, “If the company is better, then these stocks are now worth more!”
Alternatively, what happens when millions of individual investors put their retirement savings into S&P 500 index funds? It’s simple supply and demand. Joe and Jane are increasing the demand for S&P stocks, therefore the price will increase.
When Joe and Jane were the “small canoe,” their demand didn’t affect the market. But these passive investors are no longer “just along for the ride.” They are actively impacting the ride. Last year’s 30% price increase is not based only on fundamental growth. Instead, the Average Janes and Joes are artificially increasing the price of the S&P 500 via their demand for index funds.

The effects of “index inclusion”

What about “Company 501;” that is, the first company not in the S&P 500? Well, it does not receive the benefits of being a part of the S&P 500 index funds. It does not receive the demand that occurs from inclusion in that index fund, and this exclusion affects Company 501’s price.
Mike Green says that historical data clearly shows this growing impact on asset values–it’s called “index inclusion.” This is true for all sorts of index funds. They include some stocks, exclude others, and there’s a recognizable delineation between those included and excluded.
Green says there’s a “distinct and permanent shift in the valuation and price levels associated with these securities” when they are included or ejected from an index. Companies inside of indices are receiving more attention than they fundamentally deserve. Companies outside of indices, therefore, are getting the cold shoulder. This lack of true valuation is one of the formative factors of a bubble.

“Fire!” in a theater

In the past 40 years, passive investing has done nothing but grow. But eventually, that growth will end. Individual investors will retire. Withdrawals will take place. What happens when you take the money out?
At that point, Green states that the artificial inflation of index funds will cease, and quickly turn south. As more retail investors sell, prices will drop. When investors see prices dropping, they’ll get scared and sell more. The vicious cycle will continue–sell, drop, sell more, drop more–into a index fund crash. It’ll be an old-fashioned bank run.
Or, as Nicholas Nassim Taleb has written, “the market is like a large movie theater with a small door.” If everyone is looking to get out, the only way to do so is to offer the doorman a better price than the other people. Prices will plummet. Pop goes the index fund bubble.

Is it the British accent?

Raoul Pal looks the part, sounds the part, and produces his videos while sitting in front of monitors chock full of financial data. My bulls*** detector is whirring to life, but something about that accent is just so factual.
Pal’s argument is that baby boomers–through no fault of their own–have been dumping too much money into passive funds (pensions, 401(k)’s, etc). When they start selling en masse–which will happen soon!–then pop goes the index fund bubble.
There are 76 million baby boomers in the U.S., and their average age is now 65 years old. The wave of retirees is about to crest. And when they start to pull money out for retirement, we will see the large theatesmall door issue. Prices will plummet.
But, says Pal, index funds aren’t the only issue. Boomers will also face issues trying to sell their houses. They’ll have issues trying to sell their material goods. Baby Boomers were such prolific consumers that the economy will be overwrought will all their stuff, and prices everywhere will fall. Growth will cease as markets are flooded with goods. A vicious cycle will ensue.
And then “the doom loop of corporate debt will get ignited.” Oh no, not a doom loop! In short, says Pal, corporations have recently gotten into the habit of:
  1. Borrowing money (this is the corporate debt)
  2. Buying shares of their own stock—a.k.a “stock buy backs”
  3. …which drives the price of their stock higher (P.S. this is an artificial price increase)
  4. …which makes the company appear more valuable, and usually lets the biggest stockholders (e.g. the executives) get extra rich
And Pal’s right. Corporations have been gluttons for their own stocks in recent years. Just read about Apple’s buyback tactics.
Eventually, these corporations will have to pay back their debts. And their artificial valuations will come back to Earth. Stock prices will plummet. Indexes and pension funds will plummet. And Baby Boomers’ selling will cause further pricing drops.
And thus, claims Pal, the third Baby Boomer crash will occur. And every good story has the symmetry of threes.

Problems with Pal

My core issue with Pal is that he’s as much a story teller as he is fact teller. And therefore, it’s hard to tell if he’s selling olive oil or snake oil.
For example, this sounds impressive: “The baby boomers accumulated the greatest concentration of wealth the world has ever seen. And they’ll destroy it too.” Whoa! Rise and fall. The double-edged sword. The boomer giveth, and the boomer taketh away.
Pal provides facts to back up his claims. But most of his facts are arguable at best.
The 2000 Dot Com bubble? It happened because Boomers flooded the stock market with their investments, says Pal. And then “everything got dashed on the rocks, as those markets collapsed.”
The Baby Boomers–then age 45 on average–turned to real estate, says Pal. Can you guess what happened next? The 2008 Subprime Mortgage and Financial Crisis! Baby Boomers are so many in number, says Pal, that their sum-total behavior can’t help but create bubbles.
After 2000 and 2008, the Boomers were worried about their retirement savings, goes Pal’s argument. So now they’ve got to take risk, and they were forced to do so in the stock market. Well, what’s the easiest way to invest in stocks? Through passive investing! And as we’ve now learned twice–according the Pal–where the Boomer money goes, a bubble will soon follow.
It’s a nice story. It has symmetry. It has foreshadowing. It’s narrated with a silky British accent.
But that doesn’t mean it has an iota of truth. Euphoric day-trading of “.com” companies led to the 2000 Dot Com bubble. Passive investing is the exact opposite of that kind of behavior! Perhaps the money is coming from some of the same people, but that’s not evidence for the existence of an index fund bubble. Pal is grasping at straws.

Michael Burry: Big Short to Big Bubble

Michael Burry is an investor and hedge fund manager who correctly foresaw the 2008 financial crisis, and managed to make a boat-load of money for himself and his customers through his correct prediction. If you’ve seen the movie The Big Short, Michael Burry is played by Christian Bale.
Burry’s argument for an index fund bubble is a less scary than Green’s, and certainly less apocalyptic than Pal’s.
Burry’s claim is that indexing has caused an artificial bubble that’s inflating stocks inside the index, and thus leaving stocks outside the index ripe for the picking. It’s the “index inclusion” argument again.
But where Green sees a dangerous bubble, Burry sees more of an opportunity. Ready for another metaphor?
Imagine a pair of identical twin basketball all-stars. Everything about them is the same, including their skills. Except that one twin plays college ball for Duke–he’s always on TV–while the other plays for Harvard–a good academic school, but not a basketball Mecca.
The average basketball fan would be biased towards the Duke player. He’s on a better team, he gets more media coverage, and has more post-season success. The average fan would certainly believe that the Duke twin has better long-term prospects, and therefore would deserve a bigger professional contract.
But since I built this strawman hypothetical, you and I know the truth! The two twins have the same exact skill set. Therefore, signing the Harvard twin at his lower price would actually be quite the financially efficient move.
Michael Burry’s claim is that this is what’s happening with passive investing. Near-identical companies are being over- or under-valued due to their index inclusion or exclusion.
Stocks that are inside of index funds are like the Duke twin–they are being over-valued simply because of where they are. While stocks not in the index are like Harvard twin–they are under-valued, and therefore should be targeted by smart people looking to make more money.
In my opinion, this is less of a “index fund bubble” and more of an “anti-index opportunity.”
Burry is simply saying, “There’s an inefficiency here, I’ve discovered it, and I plan on making money off it. P.S.–come invest with me so we can both make money together.”
Good work, Mike! Go exploit that inefficiency!

Price Discovery is becoming fragile

Burry’s second claim is that price discovery is becoming fragile. “Price discovery” is a fancy term for “buyers and sellers determining a price where they’re willing to make a deal.”
Think about Craigslist. Someone wants $200 for a used snowblower. Snow?! Yes, in Rochester it helps to have a snowblower. So, you take a look at the snowblower and counteroffer $150. The owner haggles back to $175…and you have a deal! That’s price discovery.
Typically, stock market price discovery involves many buyers and sellers conducting detailed analyses of a company’s holdings and profits and cash flows–all of the fundamental business metrics.
But passive investing doesn’t care about those fundamental metrics. Instead, passive investing simply follows the leader. It assumes that others in the market have already done the fundamental research, and that the current price of a stock is “right.”
It’s a little bit like saying, “The last Craigslist used snowblower went for $200, so I’ll buy the next one for $200 sight unseen.” Are you sure you want to trust the last buyer and seller? What if they were dopes? Don’t you want to look at the snowblower and make a decision for yourself?
Since passive investing doesn’t rely on price discovery, Burry argues that prices are now dangerously skewed from what traditional price discovery would suggest. This cannot go on forever, and eventually the prices will snap back to where they fundamentally belong.
Or, you could say, the index fund bubble will pop. This, Burry says, is very similar to how housing and CDO pricing behavior malfunctioned before the 2008 crisis. It will be a painful, painful snap.

Part II – The other side: Index funds are fine

While I appreciate the logic behind Misters Green and Burry and Pal, there’s plenty of good money still betting on index funds’ future success. Let’s start with Ben Carlson. . Ben is financial analyst, author and blogger (nice!), and podcast host. I’m a big fan of A Wealth of Common Sense (the blog) and Animal Spirits (the podcast). Thanks for sharing all the good work, Ben.
Anyway, what does Ben have to say about the index fund bubble and passive investing?

The tail is not wagging the dog.

First, let’s get back to dogs and tails and boats. Carlson writes, “Index funds hold less than 15% of shares in public companies.” While this is a growing number–it was 3.3% in 2002 and 6.8% in 2009–passive investing is neither a majority nor plurality.
If we combine all exchange traded funds and all mutual funds, that percentage rises to about 35% ownership of all shares. That means that active investors–the dog–own at least 65% of the equity market, and therefore are still wagging the tail. All is well in the dog/boat metaphor universe, says Carlson.

Bias! Bias! Read all about it!

Another of Carlson’s arguments is that active investing, by nature, is biased against passive investing. Passive is stealing active’s business share, and now active is biting back.
Passive investing shadows what the active investors are doing. But rather than spending money on research and trades, passive investing keeps expenses–and fees–to a minimum. Passive has all the profits of active investing, but none of the costs: ipso facto, passive investing is better. And the active investors don’t like it! The “index fund bubble” is their propaganda technique.
Besides, let’s consider any and all claims that passive investing is doing something “wrong.” Logically speaking, anything that passive investing is “doing wrong” first has to be done by active investors.
You can’t blame your shadow for flipping you the middle finger–the shadow only copies the source. Similarly, passive investing only copies what active investors are doing. It’s a simple argument in logic.

The price discovery argument

Price discovery is a cop-out, says Carlson. There is way more trading occurring today than most times in the stock market’s history. In the book Index Revolution, author Charley Ellis writes that about 95% of all trades today are done by active managers–there’s plenty of opportunity for price discovery. It’s all about trading volume.
This means that the prices aren’t skewed. The prices aren’t a stretched rubber band, ready to snap back. There’s no index fund bubble, waiting to pop. Instead, the active investors are setting the prices and price discovery is healthy.

So what’s Michael Burry worried about?

Besides, Carlson says, when else in life do we expect individuals to actively partake in price discovery? Do you haggle with the grocery cashier about the cost of oranges? No! All over our economy, prices are set and individual consumers simply choose to buy, or not. They don’t barter or bargain.
I’m not sure I agree with Ben’s point here. It’s true: we don’t haggle at grocery stores. Instead we’re presented with Hobson’s choice–we either take it, or leave it. If you don’t want to pay $12 for a bag of oranges, you don’t have to.
But are people thinking about Hobson’s choice when they passively invest in index funds? I don’t think so. I think a lot of people are “blindly” putting their bi-weekly 401(k) contributions into index funds, regardless of the price. There’s not much “take it, or leave it” going on. It’s just “take it.”
My conclusion: index investors might be blindly buying in, but they’re still buying at a price that was intelligently discovered through the fundamental analyses of active investors.

Ben Felix from YouTube

Ben Felix is a portfolio manager at PWL Capital, and popular creator of YouTube financial/investment videos.
I really like one of Felix’s foundational arguments against the idea of the bubble. That idea is: assets under management do not set prices; instead, trading sets prices.
So Green and Burry should not be asking, “How much money is in indexes?” Instead, the question should be, “How much trading is done by indexing?” This means that the size of the boats doesn’t matter. In fact, it means the boat metaphor doesn’t really make sense.
So let’s relate it back to the quote from Charley Ellis: 95% of all trades today are done by active managers. That means that price discovery is dominated by active trading. And it means that there shouldn’t be any bubble driven by price discovery.
Blackrock, another investment management firm, estimates that for every $1 of passive trades, there are $22 of active trades. Again, this points to the same conclusion: there is no issue with price discovery.

Some ideas from the academics

Felix quotes a couple serious economics papers–one by Fama/French, another from Palia/Sokolinksi.
Fama & French came to the conclusion that it doesn’t take much active investing to create an efficient (i.e. non-bubble) market. Passive investing, they say, is pushing bad active managers out of the market. And those who remain? Only the skilled active managers. It’s survival of the fittest. Culling the weak should only make the market more efficient. More efficient = better price discovery = no bubble.
Palia and Sokolinski have a really interesting theory. In brief, they claim that index funds drive down the cost of short selling, which makes short selling more efficient, and that leads to better price discovery.
They start with the simple truth that index funds hold onto lots of stocks. And since the supply of stocks is high, index funds can easily lend out those stocks to short sellers (people betting that a stock will go down). The short seller pays the index fund a small fee, which gets passed onto the passive investor in the form of low costs.
However, since there are so many index funds out there, the short sellers have many different options of where they borrow stocks from. With high supply comes low prices. They can find their short sources very cheaply. This makes the cost of shorting go down.
And thus, conclude Palia and Sokolinski, passive investing is creating a more efficient market for short sellers, and a more efficient market leads to better price discovery.

Part III – Home-grown arguments and takeaways

Now that you’ve heard the smart people talk, let me bless you with my pro-index ideas.
First, index investing is self-corrective.
To wit, let’s take another look at Michael Burry’s argument: “passive investing has an inefficiency in undervaluing non-indexed companies, and I plan on taking advantage of that.”
If Burry is correct, then more active managers will follow his lead and make their money. And right behind them will be their shadow a.k.a. passive investing. The market is a self-correcting system, where money flows towards the best values. Passive investing simply follows that flow of money.
If passive gets too influential, then the smart active managers will exploit the problem. Inefficiencies will balance themselves out in the long-term. And passive investing is a long-term technique.
Second, it’s easy to avoid the pitfalls of index inclusion.
Index funds don’t have to exclude stocks. Many investment managers (like Fidelity and Vanguard) offer total market index funds. They include high and mighty S&P companies and all of the “company 501’s” out there that might be excluded from other index funds.
Therefore–if there is an index inclusion bubble–the total market index funds own both sides of that bubble.
A total market fund would only be exposed to a bubble that includes entire asset classes. For example, one could claim that stocks in their entirety are overvalued, but that commodities are undervalued. Therefore, a total U.S. stock market index fund would still expose you the bad outcomes of bursting bubble!
If this concerns you, then diversify your index investing via a lazy portfolio. There are indexes that track bond markets, international markets, different sized companies, commodities, REITs, etc. You can spread out your investments across multiple asset classes to reduce your risk.

Takeaways

Green and Burry both make good points. Pal tells a nice story. I’m really glad I took some time to understand those ideas. Carlson and Felix support the ideas I’ve always heard: the wisdom of people like Jack Bogle and Burton Malkiel. What actions am I taking after all this conversation?
Reading. Lots more reading. I want to learn more about Mike Green, Michael Burry, and their anti-passive compatriots. After all–they did compel me to type up 4000 words of arguments that go against my investing strategy. But I also want to remind myself of the reasons why I started indexing in the first place: Malkiel, Bogle, and people like Ben Carlson and Ben Felix.
But I will be staying my course, at least for now. I have not been convinced to move away from indexing, or that there’s an index fund bubble. Indexes still float my boat, and I think the bubble argument has more bark than bite. I’m in it for the long run. I do not think hand-picking individual stocks is the way to go.
Source: https://bestinterest.blog/index-fund-bubble/
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Jaren Jackson Jr.'s Potential: Future Bust or MVP?

Recently there was a post in the Grizzlies subreddit asking if anyone was concerned with Jaren Jackson Jr.
As a Jare Bear (yeah, I'm sticking with it) stan, I vented my rage and ample quarantine time into researching and writing this manifesto.
Enjoy my ramblings.
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Jaren Jackson Jr. A young, ‘unicorn’ big man who’s floor stretching ability and defensive potential combine to make him one of the more tantalizing prospects in the NBA. Though a bit overshadowed by his electric teammate, Ja Morant, and his draft class contemporaries Luka Doncic, and Trae Young, I personally find him to be one of the most, if not THE most intriguing young player in the league. Having just turned 21, Jaren only has the briefest of exposures to the NBA. His unique skill set flashes the potential of a long, great career, a path that he was set on from an early age.
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Pre NBA Life
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Son of a former NBA Champion shooting guard, a young Jaren spent his early basketball life learning how to play like a guard; shooting from the perimeter and handling the ball, things that Sr had experience leveraging into a successful NBA career. This skill set combined with a late growth spurt in high school from 6’5 to 6’10 quickly turned Jaren into a top 10 national prospect. Leading his team to 2 Indiana state tournament wins led him to continuing his career as a 17 year old freshman at Michigan State.
Playing with an upperclassmen laden front court meant Jaren didn’t get starter level minutes in college, but he made the most of his 22 minutes per game putting up an impressively efficient 11 points on 65% True Shooting, making a little over 1 three a game at nearly 40% from 3, and adding 6 rebounds and an absurd 3 blocks on top of that. It wasn’t all perfect though, as another factor of his limited minutes was his issues with fouling, something that has followed him into his current NBA career.
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Coming to the Grizzlies
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After a depressing season lost to injury in 2017-18, the Grizzlies silver lining was the opportunity to draft in the top 5 of a draft class that might go down as one of the greatest in NBA history when all is said and done. Looking to reload for one last run, the Grizzlies took a bit of a bet on Jaren’s defensive upside and potential floor stretching ability, something they felt would pair nicely alongside Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. There was some grumbling among Grizz fans at going with what appeared to be a higher risk player that had rumors of not wanting to work out with Memphis.
Jaren debuted in a Grizzlies jersey against the Hawks in a Summer League game where in just 23 minutes he put up 29 points. He made more 3’s in a single game than any player in a Grizzly uniform since Mike Miller in the 2007/08 season. As a fanbase desperate for a shooting, Jackson became an overnight sensation.
The optimism was a bit premature, and things would again not go the Grizzlies way in the regular season. After a less than promising start to the season, ownership felt it was finally time to move on from the last traces of the ‘Grit and Grind’ Grizzlies that had dominated Memphis sports culture for nearly a decade. Jaren made the most of his time under Mike and Marc until around the all star break, when Gasol left for the Raptors and Jaren went down with an injury that held him out for the remainder of the season. Prior to his injury, Jaren had established himself as a promising young talent that blended a good sense on defense, with an offense that did indeed include 3 point shooting potential. Due to youth, inexperience, and continued foul trouble woes from his college days, Jaren averaged just 26.1 minutes per game despite starting in 56 of the 58 games played that year.
Similar to his freshman college experience, Jaren made good use of his rather limited play time to contribute efficiently on both ends of the floor, posting nearly 14 points on 59.1% TS, while adding around 5 rebounds, an assist, a steal, and a block and half per game. He flashed pretty much everything that was hoped at the time of the draft; a solid, mobile front court defender, with the ability to chip in a made 3 a game. He was a member of the rookie first team, the rising stars challenge, and outside of a disappointing final team record, had a rather successful rookie season.
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Grizz Next Gen
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Everything changed when the 2019 offseason attacked. One draft lottery miracle, one 30 year old first time GM, one trade of a decade long franchise cornerstone, and one 36 year old first time head coach later, though Jaren would still be the youngest player on his team coming into the 2019-20 season, quite literally everything else about his situation had changed. At just 20 years old Jaren was the second longest tenured member of the Grizzlies roster, behind Grizzlies 2018 2nd round draft pick Dillon Brooks who missed the majority of Jaren’s rookie season with an early season ending injury.
In a flurry of free agency moves and draft signings, the Grizzlies entered the 2019-20 season with 3rd youngest roster in the league, and optimistically curious fans that were interested to see whether or not their new star point guard was the real deal, and if Ja and Jaren together could be the next great chapter in Memphis basketball.
It took just 3 games for Ja Morant to make his mark on the league, Putting up 30 points and 9 assists with the buzzer beating block on Kyrie and the overtime buzzer beating assist to Jae Crowder for his first ever NBA win. Over the course of the season Ja continued to prove himself as the leader of a young Grizzlies team, and surprised the league by almost bringing them to the playoffs in just his rookie season. Though incredibly talented and able to drag the Grizzlies to some wins single handedly, Ja alone was not enough to get the Grizzlies into the first round after Jaren suffered an injury early on in the bubble. This isn’t a knock against Ja of course, but it does lead one to ask what exactly Jaren brings to the table as a 2nd option next to Ja and what the future might hold for them together as teammates.
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Jaren's 2nd Season
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Unlike his rookie teammate, Jaren’s 2019-20 season was fairly under the radar. As a small market that was a bubble playoff team, it's understandable that not a ton of media time got spent covering the Grizzlies, and if it was it was usually focused on Ja’s incredible highlights. As a result, not many outside of the Grizzlies fan base are aware of just how unique his recent season was, or how it compares to some players you might not have considered.
Jaren Jackson Jr. didn’t just have a good season shooting the 3 ball compared to other bigs, he had a good season compared to ALL 3 point shooters in the league, and did it at a younger age than anyone in NBA history when looking at both his volume and efficiency.
This past season at just 20 years old, Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 17.4 points on 59.3% true shooting, to go along with 4.6 boards, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.6 blocks in 28.5 minutes per game. Despite it being his second season in the league, he is still the youngest player in NBA history to play at least 1000 minutes in a season and score at least 17 points per game on 59% true shooting or better. This is largely a result of the extreme shift his offense has seen since his rookie season.
In Jaren’s rookie season, his shot selection was fairly typical of a modern big that will step out to the three point line on occasion. For the season he took roughly 75% of his shots from 2, and 25% of his shots from 3. Breaking down his 2 point field goals further, he took around a third of his total shots right at the rim, and a third of his shots in the rest of the paint, with only 10% of his shots coming from the midrange.
Things changed drastically for JJJ’s offense in 2019. A new analytically minded front office and a young head coach willing to try new things looked at Jaren’s shot chart from his rookie year, and trimmed all the fat. They saw a player with legitimate volume 3 point shooting and decided to run with it.
Going from a roughly 75/25 split in the previous season, in 2019-20 the breakdown was almost even split, with 368 of his 753 shot attempts coming from behind the 3 point line. Overall, Jaren took a little less than a quarter of his shots within 3 feet of the basket, a similar amount from 3 to 10 feet, just 4% of his shots in the midrange, and everything else from 3. From 0.9 made 3’s on 2.4 attempts his rookie season (35.9%), his volume shot up to 2.5 made 3’s on 6.5 attempts his 2nd year (39.4%).
As with his overall scoring and efficiency, Jaren is record setting in his youth combined with his 3 point shooting and efficiency. Only 2 players in NBA history have averaged 2.5 made 3’s a game at 20 years old or younger. Luka Doncic this same season scored 2.8 3’s on 8.9 attempts per game. Like fellow draft class player Trae Young, he has taken the ‘James Harden’ approach to 3 point shooting where instead of having elite efficiency, he instead ‘brute forces’ 3 point attempts, taking them often in isolation off of dribble moves and from extreme range, resulting in him only shooting 31.6% from 3. Though making a slightly lower, 2.5 3’s a game, Jaren’s 39.4% efficiency dwarfs Luka’s.
Only 6 players 20 years old or younger have made at least 100 3’s in a season at 39% or better:
Jayson Tatum, Mike Miller, Bradley Beal, Kyrie Irving, Collin Sexton, and Jaren Jackson Jr. who leads the group in 3 point attempts per game.
You would think that for a 7 ft power forward to shoot with that kind of efficiency they would need to be mostly catch and shoot open 3’s, or maybe mostly at the shorter corner spots, but no, like his elite 3 point shooting guard and small forward contemporaries, Jaren is simply good at shooting in a variety of ways under all sorts of pressure.
Spot ups, off the dribble, from all spots around the arc, from absurd range, in isolation, heavily contested, there isn’t a shot that Jaren is afraid of taking. Jaren has put up great efficiency shooting in all sorts of scenarios this past season. His greatest strength and one he utilizes often is his ability to shoot coming around screens.
A little over half his 3 point makes (74/145) involved Jaren moving prior to the shot, in the form of coming off or around screens, trailing in the half court, dribble moves in isolation, or step backs. He can get his feet set and has a lightning quick release, so even though the release is low he is incredibly effective at getting his shot off.
Simply put, it is arguable Jaren Jackson Jr. has been better at 3 point shooting at a younger age than any other player in NBA history. I don’t think he’ll ever attempt 15 3’s a game like Steph Curry, just that through this point of his career Jaren has displayed a talent never before seen in the history of the league from someone so young. And that’s without considering the fact he is nearly 7 feet tall barefoot.
This elite shooting has defenses scrambling when it comes to guarding Jaren. He utilizes the threat of his elite shooting to blow by overreaching defenders, taking advantage of his rare height and athleticism combination to get past defenders and get good shots in the paint or free throws from a defender that collapses too late.
His age does tend to show here, and he will sometimes seem to hesitate or make the wrong move and end up in no man’s land a bit too far from the basket where his efficiency drops significantly. Shooting roughly a quarter of his shots from within 3 feet, he connects on a highly efficient 70.8% of his shots. But outside that in the 3-10 ft. range, another area where he shoots from about 25% of the time, his efficiency plummets to 40.6%.
Though this does bring his overall 2 point field goal percentage down to 54%, the silver lining is that it shows that there’s room for growth, and that Jaren can potentially improve his already incredible efficiency just through natural growth and experience. If he can avoid foul trouble and increase both his minutes and usage, Jaren may actually have the potential to be an elite volume scoring player that can lead a playoff team in points.
I feel this idea was mostly strongly supported by Jaren’s brief run in the bubble, where in all 3 games he showed notable growth over the player he was 4 months prior at the start of Covid. With 8 games and playoff aspirations on the line, the Grizzlies shifted into a more playoff style rotation, and with Jaren’s fouling toned down a little bit he managed to average 37 minutes per game compared to his sub 30 minute average for the season.
In those 37 minutes Jaren saw a bump in both his attempts and his efficiency, upping his shot attempts from 13.2 to 17.3. Continuing to optimize his offense, the majority of his additional 4.1 field goal attempts went to his 3 point shooting, where he upped his attempts from 6.5 to 9.3 per game, a rate that would tie him with Devonte Graham at 7th most 3 pointers attempted per game this season.
This is obviously a small sample size, and his 3 point efficiency did drop to 35.7% over the 3 games, but it was also a ‘proof of concept:’ Jaren’s increased 3 point attempts pulled defenders even further out of the paint than they might have ventured during the season, which a slightly bigger and more experienced Jaren Jackson Jr took advantage of with great results.
Though only increasing his 2 point field goal attempts from 6.8 to 8.0 per game in an additional 8.5 minutes of play time, his improved ability and easier time getting to the rim meant that his efficiency jumped from just 54% to 62.5%, increasing his points per game by 2.6 with just 1.2 more shot attempts. Combine that fact with unprepared defenses sending Jaren to the line more than twice as often (3.3 FTA season average vs. 6.7 FTA bubble average), over the 3 games Jaren averaged 25.3 points on 62.5% true shooting.
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Jaren’s Potential
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Unfortunately a small meniscus tear took him down before we got the chance to see if the trend would continue. But with the timetable for his return to health likely lining up with the start of next season in December, we may finally get to see if Bubble Jaren’s offense is the real deal or not.
Coach Taylor Jenkins is from the BudenholzePopovich coaching tree, and as a result tends to keep his rotations deep and the minutes spread, so it’s unlikely Jaren will see 37 minutes a game in the regular season. But if he can limit some of his fouling issues and increase his play time up to about 33 minutes, hopefully he could split the difference a bit and increase his overall volume and free throw attempts, improve his 2 point percentage, without such a large drop in his 3 point percentage.
Predicting the future of a player is hard, especially a player who’s statistical accomplishments are so unprecedented. A large part of orchestrating an NBA offense is deciding how many shots each player on the floor is going to get. Coaches want the most efficient players to get the most shots, and as a result usually give a majority of the shots to older more established players that have more efficient offensive games.
Of all 529 NBA players in the 2019-20 season, only 70 were able to get at least 10 shots a game on above 55% true shooting average while playing half at least 41 games. This group of 70 essentially makes up every key player in the NBA. If you normally follow 1 specific team for a majority of the season, these might be all the players from other teams you could name off the top of your head.
As you would imagine, the majority of these players are in their ‘prime’ years, with about 70% of them between the ages of 23 and 30. A player being 20 or younger in this category is rare, with their only being 3 such players this season: Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, and Jaren Jackson Jr. In fact, a player 20 years old or younger has met these benchmarks only 24 times since the NBA added the 3 point line.
(20 Year Old Key Player List by fga/poss)
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Player FGA per 100 Poss. Age MPG FGA FTA TS% 3PA 3P%
Luka Doncic 29.6 20 33.6 20.6 9.2 58.5 8.9 31.6
Kyrie Irving 27.2 20 34.7 18.1 4.9 55.3 4.7 39.1
LeBron James 26.6 20 42.4 21.1 8.0 55.4 3.9 35.1
Kyrie Irving 25.2 19 30.5 14.6 3.8 56.6 3.6 39.9
Kevin Durant 24.7 20 39.0 18.8 7.1 57.7 3.1 42.2
Anthony Davis 22.2 20 35.2 15.0 6.6 58.2 0.1 22.2
Karl-Anthony Towns 22.1 20 32.0 14.1 3.4 59.0 1.1 34.1
Jaren Jackson Jr. 21.7 20 28.5 13.2 3.3 59.3 6.5 39.4
Shaquille O'Neal 21.2 20 37.9 16.1 8.9 58.4 0.0 0.0
Ja Morant 21.1 20 31.0 14.0 4.6 55.6 2.7 33.5
Marvin Bagley 21.0 19 25.3 11.4 4.2 56.2 1.5 31.3
Lauri Markkanen 20.8 20 29.7 12.7 2.4 55.2 5.9 36.2
Chris Webber 20.6 20 32.1 13.6 4.7 55.9 0.2 0.0
Jamal Murray 20.5 20 31.7 13.1 3.1 57.6 5.4 37.8
Tyler Herro 20.4 20 27.4 11.5 1.8 55.0 5.4 38.9
Anthony Davis 19.9 19 28.8 10.6 3.5 55.9 0.1 0.0
Jaren Jackson Jr. 19.3 19 26.1 10.2 3.4 59.1 2.4 35.9
Deandre Ayton 19.0 20 30.7 12.3 2.7 60.8 0.1 0.0
Brook Lopez 18.0 20 30.5 10.3 2.6 56.8 0.0 0.0
Eric Gordon 17.5 20 34.3 11.6 4.5 59.3 4.3 38.9
Jayson Tatum 17.1 19 30.5 10.4 3.2 58.6 3.0 43.4
Myles Turner 17.1 20 31.4 10.7 3.7 58.5 1.4 34.8
Dwight Howard 15.9 20 36.8 10.7 7.3 56.5 0.0 0.0
Magic Johnson 15.7 20 36.3 12.3 6.0 60.2 0.4 22.6
Compared to the others on this list, Jaren is just the 3rd to have his name appear twice, joining Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving as the only 2 players to be highly efficient ‘key’ offensive players in both their age 19 and age 20 seasons. Of the 24 seasons that fit the criteria, Jaren’s 2019-20 Season ranks 12th in points per game at 17.4, while being tied for 3rd overall in efficiency at 59.3% true shooting. His 6.5 3PA per game is 2nd overall, and his 39.4 3P% is 4th overall, while averaging 4th fewest minutes amongst players listed.
For the purpose of predicting Jaren’s growth as an offensive player, these are essentially his peers. By looking at players that took a similar number of shot attempts per 100 possessions at his same age on a similar efficiency, we can see what type of increase in offensive load they saw going into their age 21 season. If we apply a similar increase to Jaren’s shot attempts while also increasing his minutes per game, we can get a rough idea of how many shots Jaren might take in an average game next season.
The players shooting at a similar rate to Jaren saw roughly a 10% increase in both their shots per possession, and free throws per possession. If Jaren see’s similar growth to the other players around him on this list, and is able to increase his minutes to about 33 per game by improving his conditioning and reducing his fouls, he should be able to get up to around 17 field goal attempts per game next year, and 4.2 free throw attempts.
If like this season he has about a 50/50 split between his 2 point and 3 point attempts, and if he shoots at his career averages from each area on the floor and free throws, that would have him scoring 22.3 points per game on 59.2% true shooting. If he were to reach those marks he would likely be in elite company, with only 10 players this past season scoring at least 22 points on 59% true shooting or better while playing in a majority of games.
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Player Age MPG PPG TS%
Damian Lillard 29 37.5 30.0 62.7
James Harden 30 36.5 34.3 62.6
Devin Booker 23 35.9 26.6 61.8
Trae Young 21 35.3 29.6 59.5
Anthony Davis 26 34.4 26.1 61.0
DeMar DeRozan 30 34.1 22.1 60.3
Karl-Anthony Towns 24 33.9 26.5 64.2
Kyrie Irving 27 32.9 27.4 59.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo 25 30.4 29.5 61.3
Joel Embiid 25 29.5 23.0 59.0
Though I feel my methodology is sound, it still feels like it might be an optimistic expectation when compared to history. Only 6 players have ever scored so much, so efficiently, over the course of a season at the age of 21. Trae Young this past season, Karl Anthony Towns in 16-17, Anthony Davis in 14-15, Kevin Durant in 08-09, Shaq in 93-94, and rookie Michael Jordan. If Jaren does manage to reach this list next season, it may all but confirm his potential to become one of the most offensively dominant players in NBA history.
However, all 6 of those players have completely different styles of offense, so it’s a bit hard to determine if Jaren’s offense has the same kind of potential. It's also far removed from the expectations he had coming into the league, when he was mostly valued for his defense and was viewed as having a Chris Bosh type offense.
So to try and find players with play styles similar to Jaren’s, I narrowed some of the search filters on to players above 6’10, and lowered the efficiency benchmark to just 50% TS to hopefully get as many players in league history that have played like Jaren, even if they weren’t as efficient at it due to old offenses not driven by analytics.
I know volume 3 point shooting is a recent trend, especially for big men in particular, so I also set a filter for players that attempted at least 1 3 a game, on at least 35.8% (current league average) 3 point shooting. They might not shoot as many 3’s as Jaren, but I assumed traditional NBA offenses would have their bigs shooting more mid range shots, and if they at least attempted a 3 every game it would imply they shoot a significant number of shots close to the 3 point line.
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Player Age MPG PPG FGA TS% 3PA 3P%
Jaren Jackson Jr. 19 26.1 13.8 10.2 59.1 2.4 35.9
Jaren Jackson Jr. 20 28.5 17.4 13.2 59.3 6.5 39.4
Lauri Markkanen 20 29.7 15.2 12.7 55.2 5.9 36.2
Lamar Odom 20 36.4 16.6 13.5 52.1 2.2 36.0
Kevin Durant 20 39.0 25.3 18.8 57.7 3.1 42.2
Lauri Markkanen 21 32.3 18.7 15.3 55.3 6.4 36.1
Danilo Gallinari 21 33.9 15.1 11.4 57.5 6.0 38.1
Dirk Nowitzki 21 35.8 17.5 13.6 56.4 3.7 37.9
Karl-Anthony Towns 21 37.0 25.1 18.0 61.8 3.4 36.7
Dario Saric 21 29.6 14.6 11.4 58.2 5.1 39.3
A fairly interesting mix of players, with one you might not have expected in Lamar Odom, a few solid modern forward bigs in Saric, Gallinari, and Markkanen, a modern center that has had a great start to his career in Towns, and some all time great forwards in Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant.
A positive sign, Jaren is notably the youngest player on this list (tied with Durant at 20 as well as the only player to do it at age 19 his rookie year), and though in the lower middle of the pack in terms of field goal attempts per game (6th), he is 2nd in TS% at 59.3%, 2nd in 3P% at 39.4% (Kevin Durant had his career best mark his 2nd year), and 1st in 3PA/G at 6.5, all while playing the fewest minutes per game.
A side note here. I know Jaren’s rebounding is a fairly big concern of a lot of fans. If you look at all of these players who Jaren has a lot in common with, you will notice that rebounding rate appears pretty consistent depending on which position the player gets most of their minutes at. Dirk, Danillo, Dario, Durant, and Jaren all hover around a 10% total rebound rate through their first couple seasons. Embiid and KAT who both play center full time are up near 20%. Dirk improved his total rebound rate in the 3rd year of his career when he started playing more minutes at center and had filled out a bit more, and I expect Jaren to do the same.
Overall, when compared to players that match him in play style and when comparing him to players that match him in efficiency, Jaren shines amongst his peers at a very young age.
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Super Saiyan Jaren Jackson Jr. aka SSMVPJAREN
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For fun, I wanted to try and imagine what Jaren might look like at his peak. His numbers seem to line up well with Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki, who also happen to be 2 players with a ton of playoff runs to pick from, as well as plenty of time playing next to elite point guards.
In 2011 Dirk proved doubters wrong by leading the Mavericks to a championship, paving the way with his 27.7 points on 18.9 shots and 8.9 free throw attempts for an incredibly efficient (relative to league play) 60.9% TS in the playoffs.
In 2017, Kevin Durant made the most of his super team upgrade by scoring 28.5 points on just 17.9 shots and 6.9 free throw attempts, an absolutely absurd 68.3% TS, one of the 6 most efficient volume scoring playoff runs of all time, and the only player of those 6 to play past the first round.
So that’s about 18.5 shots and 7.9 free throws a game for future Prime Jaren to work with, assuming he takes a similar offensive load. If Jaren does grow into the same type of elite volume shooter, with his current shooting breakdown and a league that’s constantly trying to optimize, at this point in his career Jaren might still be shooting a little over half his attempts from 3, while an increase in size and skill means he gets to the rim on 30% of his attempts, while the remaining 20% come from the rest of the paint.
If he plays some of the best basketball of his career like other all time greats in their best runs, maybe he’s hitting 75% on his shots at the rim, 50% in the rest of the paint, and 42% from 3, with 80% free throw shooting.
That volume, shot breakdown, and volume would result in Jaren scoring exactly 30 points a game on a scorching 68.3% TS, while potentially being the anchor small ball center of one of the top defenses in the league.
Of course, this is by far the most optimistic outlook on Jaren’s future in the league. Plenty of players fail to meet expectations they set early on, and many more get injured and never get the opportunity to even try. Some players get stuck in less than ideal situations with bad teammates or coaches. There’s so much that could go wrong, that statistically it’s very likely Jaren doesn’t reach these lofty heights.
But through this point in his career, I would argue that the league has never seen a player quite like Jaren, and there’s never been one set up quite as well going forward. An equally gifted teammate who’s playstyle and skill will maximize Jaren’s potential, a data driven management that will work to put Jaren in the best situations possible on the court, and all the time, athleticism, opportunity and skill in the world needed to be a star in the league... maybe even an MVP.
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If you read all of that, please comment below if you want to discuss further or want to ask about any of the math/research I did. Let's go Grizzlies!
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Jaren Jackson Jr. Future MVP

Recently there was a post in the Grizzlies subreddit asking if anyone was concerned with Jaren Jackson Jr.
As a Jare Bear (yeah, I'm sticking with it) stan, I vented my rage and ample quarantine time into researching and writing this manifesto.
Enjoy my ramblings.
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Jaren Jackson Jr. A young, ‘unicorn’ big man who’s floor stretching ability and defensive potential combine to make him one of the more tantalizing prospects in the NBA. Though a bit overshadowed by his electric teammate, Ja Morant, and his draft class contemporaries Luka Doncic, and Trae Young, I personally find him to be one of the most, if not THE most intriguing young player in the league. Having just turned 21, Jaren only has the briefest of exposures to the NBA. His unique skill set flashes the potential of a long, great career, a path that he was set on from an early age.
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Pre NBA Life
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Son of a former NBA Champion shooting guard, a young Jaren spent his early basketball life learning how to play like a guard; shooting from the perimeter and handling the ball, things that Sr had experience leveraging into a successful NBA career. This skill set combined with a late growth spurt in high school from 6’5 to 6’10 quickly turned Jaren into a top 10 national prospect. Leading his team to 2 Indiana state tournament wins led him to continuing his career as a 17 year old freshman at Michigan State.
Playing with an upperclassmen laden front court meant Jaren didn’t get starter level minutes in college, but he made the most of his 22 minutes per game putting up an impressively efficient 11 points on 65% True Shooting, making a little over 1 three a game at nearly 40% from 3, and adding 6 rebounds and an absurd 3 blocks on top of that. It wasn’t all perfect though, as another factor of his limited minutes was his issues with fouling, something that has followed him into his current NBA career.
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Coming to the Grizzlies
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After a depressing season lost to injury in 2017-18, the Grizzlies silver lining was the opportunity to draft in the top 5 of a draft class that might go down as one of the greatest in NBA history when all is said and done. Looking to reload for one last run, the Grizzlies took a bit of a bet on Jaren’s defensive upside and potential floor stretching ability, something they felt would pair nicely alongside Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. There was some grumbling among Grizz fans at going with what appeared to be a higher risk player that had rumors of not wanting to work out with Memphis.
Jaren debuted in a Grizzlies jersey against the Hawks in a Summer League game where in just 23 minutes he put up 29 points. He made more 3’s in a single game than any player in a Grizzly uniform since Mike Miller in the 2007/08 season. As a fanbase desperate for a shooting, Jackson became an overnight sensation.
The optimism was a bit premature, and things would again not go the Grizzlies way in the regular season. After a less than promising start to the season, ownership felt it was finally time to move on from the last traces of the ‘Grit and Grind’ Grizzlies that had dominated Memphis sports culture for nearly a decade. Jaren made the most of his time under Mike and Marc until around the all star break, when Gasol left for the Raptors and Jaren went down with an injury that held him out for the remainder of the season. Prior to his injury, Jaren had established himself as a promising young talent that blended a good sense on defense, with an offense that did indeed include 3 point shooting potential. Due to youth, inexperience, and continued foul trouble woes from his college days, Jaren averaged just 26.1 minutes per game despite starting in 56 of the 58 games played that year.
Similar to his freshman college experience, Jaren made good use of his rather limited play time to contribute efficiently on both ends of the floor, posting nearly 14 points on 59.1% TS, while adding around 5 rebounds, an assist, a steal, and a block and half per game. He flashed pretty much everything that was hoped at the time of the draft; a solid, mobile front court defender, with the ability to chip in a made 3 a game. He was a member of the rookie first team, the rising stars challenge, and outside of a disappointing final team record, had a rather successful rookie season.
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Grizz Next Gen
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Everything changed when the 2019 offseason attacked. One draft lottery miracle, one 30 year old first time GM, one trade of a decade long franchise cornerstone, and one 36 year old first time head coach later, though Jaren would still be the youngest player on his team coming into the 2019-20 season, quite literally everything else about his situation had changed. At just 20 years old Jaren was the second longest tenured member of the Grizzlies roster, behind Grizzlies 2018 2nd round draft pick Dillon Brooks who missed the majority of Jaren’s rookie season with an early season ending injury.
In a flurry of free agency moves and draft signings, the Grizzlies entered the 2019-20 season with 3rd youngest roster in the league, and optimistically curious fans that were interested to see whether or not their new star point guard was the real deal, and if Ja and Jaren together could be the next great chapter in Memphis basketball.
It took just 3 games for Ja Morant to make his mark on the league, Putting up 30 points and 9 assists with the buzzer beating block on Kyrie and the overtime buzzer beating assist to Jae Crowder for his first ever NBA win. Over the course of the season Ja continued to prove himself as the leader of a young Grizzlies team, and surprised the league by almost bringing them to the playoffs in just his rookie season. Though incredibly talented and able to drag the Grizzlies to some wins single handedly, Ja alone was not enough to get the Grizzlies into the first round after Jaren suffered an injury early on in the bubble. This isn’t a knock against Ja of course, but it does lead one to ask what exactly Jaren brings to the table as a 2nd option next to Ja and what the future might hold for them together as teammates.
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Jaren's 2nd Season
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Unlike his rookie teammate, Jaren’s 2019-20 season was fairly under the radar. As a small market that was a bubble playoff team, it's understandable that not a ton of media time got spent covering the Grizzlies, and if it was it was usually focused on Ja’s incredible highlights. As a result, not many outside of the Grizzlies fan base are aware of just how unique his recent season was, or how it compares to some players you might not have considered.
Jaren Jackson Jr. didn’t just have a good season shooting the 3 ball compared to other bigs, he had a good season compared to ALL 3 point shooters in the league, and did it at a younger age than anyone in NBA history when looking at both his volume and efficiency.
This past season at just 20 years old, Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 17.4 points on 59.3% true shooting, to go along with 4.6 boards, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.6 blocks in 28.5 minutes per game. Despite it being his second season in the league, he is still the youngest player in NBA history to play at least 1000 minutes in a season and score at least 17 points per game on 59% true shooting or better. This is largely a result of the extreme shift his offense has seen since his rookie season.
In Jaren’s rookie season, his shot selection was fairly typical of a modern big that will step out to the three point line on occasion. For the season he took roughly 75% of his shots from 2, and 25% of his shots from 3. Breaking down his 2 point field goals further, he took around a third of his total shots right at the rim, and a third of his shots in the rest of the paint, with only 10% of his shots coming from the midrange.
Things changed drastically for JJJ’s offense in 2019. A new analytically minded front office and a young head coach willing to try new things looked at Jaren’s shot chart from his rookie year, and trimmed all the fat. They saw a player with legitimate volume 3 point shooting and decided to run with it.
Going from a roughly 75/25 split in the previous season, in 2019-20 the breakdown was almost even split, with 368 of his 753 shot attempts coming from behind the 3 point line. Overall, Jaren took a little less than a quarter of his shots within 3 feet of the basket, a similar amount from 3 to 10 feet, just 4% of his shots in the midrange, and everything else from 3. From 0.9 made 3’s on 2.4 attempts his rookie season (35.9%), his volume shot up to 2.5 made 3’s on 6.5 attempts his 2nd year (39.4%).
As with his overall scoring and efficiency, Jaren is record setting in his youth combined with his 3 point shooting and efficiency. Only 2 players in NBA history have averaged 2.5 made 3’s a game at 20 years old or younger. Luka Doncic this same season scored 2.8 3’s on 8.9 attempts per game. Like fellow draft class player Trae Young, he has taken the ‘James Harden’ approach to 3 point shooting where instead of having elite efficiency, he instead ‘brute forces’ 3 point attempts, taking them often in isolation off of dribble moves and from extreme range, resulting in him only shooting 31.6% from 3. Though making a slightly lower, 2.5 3’s a game, Jaren’s 39.4% efficiency dwarfs Luka’s.
Only 6 players 20 years old or younger have made at least 100 3’s in a season at 39% or better:
Jayson Tatum, Mike Miller, Bradley Beal, Kyrie Irving, Collin Sexton, and Jaren Jackson Jr. who leads the group in 3 point attempts per game.
You would think that for a 7 ft power forward to shoot with that kind of efficiency they would need to be mostly catch and shoot open 3’s, or maybe mostly at the shorter corner spots, but no, like his elite 3 point shooting guard and small forward contemporaries, Jaren is simply good at shooting in a variety of ways under all sorts of pressure.
Spot ups, off the dribble, from all spots around the arc, from absurd range, in isolation, heavily contested, there isn’t a shot that Jaren is afraid of taking. Jaren has put up great efficiency shooting in all sorts of scenarios this past season. His greatest strength and one he utilizes often is his ability to shoot coming around screens.
A little over half his 3 point makes (74/145) involved Jaren moving prior to the shot, in the form of coming off or around screens, trailing in the half court, dribble moves in isolation, or step backs. He can get his feet set and has a lightning quick release, so even though the release is low he is incredibly effective at getting his shot off.
Simply put, it is arguable Jaren Jackson Jr. has been better at 3 point shooting at a younger age than any other player in NBA history. I don’t think he’ll ever attempt 15 3’s a game like Steph Curry, just that through this point of his career Jaren has displayed a talent never before seen in the history of the league from someone so young. And that’s without considering the fact he is nearly 7 feet tall barefoot.
This elite shooting has defenses scrambling when it comes to guarding Jaren. He utilizes the threat of his elite shooting to blow by overreaching defenders, taking advantage of his rare height and athleticism combination to get past defenders and get good shots in the paint or free throws from a defender that collapses too late.
His age does tend to show here, and he will sometimes seem to hesitate or make the wrong move and end up in no man’s land a bit too far from the basket where his efficiency drops significantly. Shooting roughly a quarter of his shots from within 3 feet, he connects on a highly efficient 70.8% of his shots. But outside that in the 3-10 ft. range, another area where he shoots from about 25% of the time, his efficiency plummets to 40.6%.
Though this does bring his overall 2 point field goal percentage down to 54%, the silver lining is that it shows that there’s room for growth, and that Jaren can potentially improve his already incredible efficiency just through natural growth and experience. If he can avoid foul trouble and increase both his minutes and usage, Jaren may actually have the potential to be an elite volume scoring player that can lead a playoff team in points.
I feel this idea was mostly strongly supported by Jaren’s brief run in the bubble, where in all 3 games he showed notable growth over the player he was 4 months prior at the start of Covid. With 8 games and playoff aspirations on the line, the Grizzlies shifted into a more playoff style rotation, and with Jaren’s fouling toned down a little bit he managed to average 37 minutes per game compared to his sub 30 minute average for the season.
In those 37 minutes Jaren saw a bump in both his attempts and his efficiency, upping his shot attempts from 13.2 to 17.3. Continuing to optimize his offense, the majority of his additional 4.1 field goal attempts went to his 3 point shooting, where he upped his attempts from 6.5 to 9.3 per game, a rate that would tie him with Devonte Graham at 7th most 3 pointers attempted per game this season.
This is obviously a small sample size, and his 3 point efficiency did drop to 35.7% over the 3 games, but it was also a ‘proof of concept:’ Jaren’s increased 3 point attempts pulled defenders even further out of the paint than they might have ventured during the season, which a slightly bigger and more experienced Jaren Jackson Jr took advantage of with great results.
Though only increasing his 2 point field goal attempts from 6.8 to 8.0 per game in an additional 8.5 minutes of play time, his improved ability and easier time getting to the rim meant that his efficiency jumped from just 54% to 62.5%, increasing his points per game by 2.6 with just 1.2 more shot attempts. Combine that fact with unprepared defenses sending Jaren to the line more than twice as often (3.3 FTA season average vs. 6.7 FTA bubble average), over the 3 games Jaren averaged 25.3 points on 62.5% true shooting.
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Jaren’s Potential
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Unfortunately a small meniscus tear took him down before we got the chance to see if the trend would continue. But with the timetable for his return to health likely lining up with the start of next season in December, we may finally get to see if Bubble Jaren’s offense is the real deal or not.
Coach Taylor Jenkins is from the BudenholzePopovich coaching tree, and as a result tends to keep his rotations deep and the minutes spread, so it’s unlikely Jaren will see 37 minutes a game in the regular season. But if he can limit some of his fouling issues and increase his play time up to about 33 minutes, hopefully he could split the difference a bit and increase his overall volume and free throw attempts, improve his 2 point percentage, without such a large drop in his 3 point percentage.
Predicting the future of a player is hard, especially a player who’s statistical accomplishments are so unprecedented. A large part of orchestrating an NBA offense is deciding how many shots each player on the floor is going to get. Coaches want the most efficient players to get the most shots, and as a result usually give a majority of the shots to older more established players that have more efficient offensive games.
Of all 529 NBA players in the 2019-20 season, only 70 were able to get at least 10 shots a game on above 55% true shooting average while playing half at least 41 games. This group of 70 essentially makes up every key player in the NBA. If you normally follow 1 specific team for a majority of the season, these might be all the players from other teams you could name off the top of your head.
As you would imagine, the majority of these players are in their ‘prime’ years, with about 70% of them between the ages of 23 and 30. A player being 20 or younger in this category is rare, with their only being 3 such players this season: Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, and Jaren Jackson Jr. In fact, a player 20 years old or younger has met these benchmarks only 24 times since the NBA added the 3 point line.
(20 Year Old Key Player List by fga/poss)
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Player FGA per 100 Poss. Age MPG FGA FTA TS% 3PA 3P%
Luka Doncic 29.6 20 33.6 20.6 9.2 58.5 8.9 31.6
Kyrie Irving 27.2 20 34.7 18.1 4.9 55.3 4.7 39.1
LeBron James 26.6 20 42.4 21.1 8.0 55.4 3.9 35.1
Kyrie Irving 25.2 19 30.5 14.6 3.8 56.6 3.6 39.9
Kevin Durant 24.7 20 39.0 18.8 7.1 57.7 3.1 42.2
Anthony Davis 22.2 20 35.2 15.0 6.6 58.2 0.1 22.2
Karl-Anthony Towns 22.1 20 32.0 14.1 3.4 59.0 1.1 34.1
Jaren Jackson Jr. 21.7 20 28.5 13.2 3.3 59.3 6.5 39.4
Shaquille O'Neal 21.2 20 37.9 16.1 8.9 58.4 0.0 0.0
Ja Morant 21.1 20 31.0 14.0 4.6 55.6 2.7 33.5
Marvin Bagley 21.0 19 25.3 11.4 4.2 56.2 1.5 31.3
Lauri Markkanen 20.8 20 29.7 12.7 2.4 55.2 5.9 36.2
Chris Webber 20.6 20 32.1 13.6 4.7 55.9 0.2 0.0
Jamal Murray 20.5 20 31.7 13.1 3.1 57.6 5.4 37.8
Tyler Herro 20.4 20 27.4 11.5 1.8 55.0 5.4 38.9
Anthony Davis 19.9 19 28.8 10.6 3.5 55.9 0.1 0.0
Jaren Jackson Jr. 19.3 19 26.1 10.2 3.4 59.1 2.4 35.9
Deandre Ayton 19.0 20 30.7 12.3 2.7 60.8 0.1 0.0
Brook Lopez 18.0 20 30.5 10.3 2.6 56.8 0.0 0.0
Eric Gordon 17.5 20 34.3 11.6 4.5 59.3 4.3 38.9
Jayson Tatum 17.1 19 30.5 10.4 3.2 58.6 3.0 43.4
Myles Turner 17.1 20 31.4 10.7 3.7 58.5 1.4 34.8
Dwight Howard 15.9 20 36.8 10.7 7.3 56.5 0.0 0.0
Magic Johnson 15.7 20 36.3 12.3 6.0 60.2 0.4 22.6
Compared to the others on this list, Jaren is just the 3rd to have his name appear twice, joining Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving as the only 2 players to be highly efficient ‘key’ offensive players in both their age 19 and age 20 seasons. Of the 24 seasons that fit the criteria, Jaren’s 2019-20 Season ranks 12th in points per game at 17.4, while being tied for 3rd overall in efficiency at 59.3% true shooting. His 6.5 3PA per game is 2nd overall, and his 39.4 3P% is 4th overall, while averaging 4th fewest minutes amongst players listed.
For the purpose of predicting Jaren’s growth as an offensive player, these are essentially his peers. By looking at players that took a similar number of shot attempts per 100 possessions at his same age on a similar efficiency, we can see what type of increase in offensive load they saw going into their age 21 season. If we apply a similar increase to Jaren’s shot attempts while also increasing his minutes per game, we can get a rough idea of how many shots Jaren might take in an average game next season.
The players shooting at a similar rate to Jaren saw roughly a 10% increase in both their shots per possession, and free throws per possession. If Jaren see’s similar growth to the other players around him on this list, and is able to increase his minutes to about 33 per game by improving his conditioning and reducing his fouls, he should be able to get up to around 17 field goal attempts per game next year, and 4.2 free throw attempts.
If like this season he has about a 50/50 split between his 2 point and 3 point attempts, and if he shoots at his career averages from each area on the floor and free throws, that would have him scoring 22.3 points per game on 59.2% true shooting. If he were to reach those marks he would likely be in elite company, with only 10 players this past season scoring at least 22 points on 59% true shooting or better while playing in a majority of games.
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Player Age MPG PPG TS%
Damian Lillard 29 37.5 30.0 62.7
James Harden 30 36.5 34.3 62.6
Devin Booker 23 35.9 26.6 61.8
Trae Young 21 35.3 29.6 59.5
Anthony Davis 26 34.4 26.1 61.0
DeMar DeRozan 30 34.1 22.1 60.3
Karl-Anthony Towns 24 33.9 26.5 64.2
Kyrie Irving 27 32.9 27.4 59.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo 25 30.4 29.5 61.3
Joel Embiid 25 29.5 23.0 59.0
Though I feel my methodology is sound, it still feels like it might be an optimistic expectation when compared to history. Only 6 players have ever scored so much, so efficiently, over the course of a season at the age of 21. Trae Young this past season, Karl Anthony Towns in 16-17, Anthony Davis in 14-15, Kevin Durant in 08-09, Shaq in 93-94, and rookie Michael Jordan. If Jaren does manage to reach this list next season, it may all but confirm his potential to become one of the most offensively dominant players in NBA history.
However, all 6 of those players have completely different styles of offense, so it’s a bit hard to determine if Jaren’s offense has the same kind of potential. It's also far removed from the expectations he had coming into the league, when he was mostly valued for his defense and was viewed as having a Chris Bosh type offense.
So to try and find players with play styles similar to Jaren’s, I narrowed some of the search filters on to players above 6’10, and lowered the efficiency benchmark to just 50% TS to hopefully get as many players in league history that have played like Jaren, even if they weren’t as efficient at it due to old offenses not driven by analytics.
I know volume 3 point shooting is a recent trend, especially for big men in particular, so I also set a filter for players that attempted at least 1 3 a game, on at least 35.8% (current league average) 3 point shooting. They might not shoot as many 3’s as Jaren, but I assumed traditional NBA offenses would have their bigs shooting more mid range shots, and if they at least attempted a 3 every game it would imply they shoot a significant number of shots close to the 3 point line.
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Player Age MPG PPG FGA TS% 3PA 3P%
Jaren Jackson Jr. 19 26.1 13.8 10.2 59.1 2.4 35.9
Jaren Jackson Jr. 20 28.5 17.4 13.2 59.3 6.5 39.4
Lauri Markkanen 20 29.7 15.2 12.7 55.2 5.9 36.2
Lamar Odom 20 36.4 16.6 13.5 52.1 2.2 36.0
Kevin Durant 20 39.0 25.3 18.8 57.7 3.1 42.2
Lauri Markkanen 21 32.3 18.7 15.3 55.3 6.4 36.1
Danilo Gallinari 21 33.9 15.1 11.4 57.5 6.0 38.1
Dirk Nowitzki 21 35.8 17.5 13.6 56.4 3.7 37.9
Karl-Anthony Towns 21 37.0 25.1 18.0 61.8 3.4 36.7
Dario Saric 21 29.6 14.6 11.4 58.2 5.1 39.3
A fairly interesting mix of players, with one you might not have expected in Lamar Odom, a few solid modern forward bigs in Saric, Gallinari, and Markkanen, a modern center that has had a great start to his career in Towns, and some all time great forwards in Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant.
A positive sign, Jaren is notably the youngest player on this list (tied with Durant at 20 as well as the only player to do it at age 19 his rookie year), and though in the lower middle of the pack in terms of field goal attempts per game (6th), he is 2nd in TS% at 59.3%, 2nd in 3P% at 39.4% (Kevin Durant had his career best mark his 2nd year), and 1st in 3PA/G at 6.5, all while playing the fewest minutes per game.
A side note here. I know Jaren’s rebounding is a fairly big concern of a lot of fans. If you look at all of these players who Jaren has a lot in common with, you will notice that rebounding rate appears pretty consistent depending on which position the player gets most of their minutes at. Dirk, Danillo, Dario, Durant, and Jaren all hover around a 10% total rebound rate through their first couple seasons. Embiid and KAT who both play center full time are up near 20%. Dirk improved his total rebound rate in the 3rd year of his career when he started playing more minutes at center and had filled out a bit more, and I expect Jaren to do the same.
Overall, when compared to players that match him in play style and when comparing him to players that match him in efficiency, Jaren shines amongst his peers at a very young age.
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Super Saiyin Jaren Jackson Jr. aka SSJJJMVP
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For fun, I wanted to try and imagine what Jaren might look like at his peak. His numbers seem to line up well with Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki, who also happen to be 2 players with a ton of playoff runs to pick from, as well as plenty of time playing next to elite point guards.
In 2011 Dirk proved doubters wrong by leading the Mavericks to a championship, paving the way with his 27.7 points on 18.9 shots and 8.9 free throw attempts for an incredibly efficient (relative to league play) 60.9% TS in the playoffs.
In 2017, Kevin Durant made the most of his super team upgrade by scoring 28.5 points on just 17.9 shots and 6.9 free throw attempts, an absolutely absurd 68.3% TS, one of the 6 most efficient volume scoring playoff runs of all time, and the only player of those 6 to play past the first round.
So that’s about 18.5 shots and 7.9 free throws a game for future Prime Jaren to work with, assuming he takes a similar offensive load. If Jaren does grow into the same type of elite volume shooter, with his current shooting breakdown and a league that’s constantly trying to optimize, at this point in his career Jaren might still be shooting a little over half his attempts from 3, while an increase in size and skill means he gets to the rim on 30% of his attempts, while the remaining 20% come from the rest of the paint.
If he plays some of the best basketball of his career like other all time greats in their best runs, maybe he’s hitting 75% on his shots at the rim, 50% in the rest of the paint, and 42% from 3, with 80% free throw shooting.
That volume, shot breakdown, and volume would result in Jaren scoring exactly 30 points a game on a scorching 68.3% TS, while potentially being the anchor small ball center of one of the top defenses in the league.
Of course, this is by far the most optimistic outlook on Jaren’s future in the league. Plenty of players fail to meet expectations they set early on, and many more get injured and never get the opportunity to even try. Some players get stuck in less than ideal situations with bad teammates or coaches. There’s so much that could go wrong, that statistically it’s very likely Jaren doesn’t reach these lofty heights.
But through this point in his career, I would argue that the league has never seen a player quite like Jaren, and there’s never been one set up quite as well going forward. An equally gifted teammate who’s playstyle and skill will maximize Jaren’s potential, a data driven management that will work to put Jaren in the best situations possible on the court, and all the time, athleticism, opportunity and skill in the world needed to be a star in the league... maybe even an MVP.
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If you read all of that, please comment below if you want to discuss further or want to ask about any of the math/research I did. Let's go Grizzlies!
submitted by MaverickXV2 to memphisgrizzlies [link] [comments]

Looking Back at the Last Decade of Baseball: The 2020s in Review (part 1 of 2)

The last decade of baseball sure has been fun, hasn’t it? We’ve had thrills, we’ve had chills, we’ve had spills, . But a decade is a long time, and much has been forgotten: So let’s look back on the 2020s, and all the things that happened in it! We begin in...

2021

January: Hype builds around the top free agent of the season, Trevor Bauer. After announcing that he will not accept any deals that do not have leading numbers of either 69 or 420, front offices scramble to free up the necessary budget space.
February: As players arrive at spring training, there is an astounding amount of hype surrounding the young superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is reported by multiple news outlets as being in, ‘the worst shape of his life’.
March: After four intense months of free agent negotiations, Trevor Bauer announces he plans to take a gap year to explore his possible options in life.
On Opening Day, Byron Buxton runs full-tilt into the outfield wall while trying to track down a Jorge Soler home run. He breaks three wrists and is out for the remainder of the season, sparing Twins fans the disappointment of seeing him waste his batting potential.
April: Mike Fiers, sick of being snubbed by front offices due to his role in blowing the whistle on the Astros sign stealing scandal, writes a tell-all where he claims he was the brains behind the whole operation. Eight different MLB clubs and Bill Belicheck immediately send him a contract offer.
May: Mark Reynolds announces his retirement on the grounds of being completely blind. He is promptly offered a lucrative contract by the umpire’s union.
June: On June 12, highly touted prospect Seth Beer makes his major league debut with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He uses ‘Beer’ by Reel Big Fish as his walkup song, and is immediately banned from baseball for life for reminding people that ska existed.
July: Fernando Tatis Jr. again ignites controversy from the media and from former players after being intentionally walked when his team is up by ten. “That is a disgusting act by Fernando Tatis Jr. and it's unfortunate that we had that on our air live”, says Joe Buck, calling the game for FOX, “That is disgusting by Tatis”.
Toronto continues their long-standing tradition of signing prospects who were born of somebody who screwed someone who used to be a good major league player by bringing A.J. Burnett Jr. into their minor league system.
August: Hawk Harrelson returns to broadcast a single game for the White Sox. Chicago gives up ten runs in the first, and Hawk remains completely silent for the last eight innings.
After years of controversy, the Cleveland Indians finally announce their rebrand. Their announcement states, “We waited far too long to get rid of Chief Wahoo. We’re not going to be late to the party for the next step. With Washington rebranding, it’s time to strike while the iron is hot. We recognize that there will likely be uproar, but history will vindicate us. From now on, the team will be known as the Ohio Indians”.
September: The MLB marketing team goes into overdrive and announces the creation of MLBFilms, a movie company developing films starring MLB players to try to increase their public image.
October: The Mariners put the final touches on a blessed season by mounting a five-run comeback against the Angels in the bottom of the ninth inning of game 162. Kyle Seager hits a walk-off grand slam to cap it off. They finish 73-89.
November: With the close of the 2021 season, the collective bargaining agreement between the MLB and the Player’s Union ends. For the sake of everyone’s sanity, both sides agree to ignore this.
After further investigation into the Astros sign stealing scandal, the Comissioners’s Office announces new sanctions: Cleveland State will receive the ‘death penalty’.
December: The Rockies broadcast team welcomes Matt Holliday as their new color commentator. The longtime Colorado player joins Drew Goodman, Ryan Spilbroughs, and Jeff Huson in the booth.
A.J Pierzynski receives two votes for the Hall of Fame and immediately demands a recount.

2022

January: Tim Lincecum, long time Giants fan favorite, announces his intent to come back to baseball. ‘I’ve been out of this game too long. I wasn’t sure if the fans and the team would accept me after all this time, but the support I’ve received has been incredible. When this position as a bat boy opened up, I knew it was made for me”. He will face stiff competition from a number of eight year olds to fill the position
MLBFilms announces their first movie: a four hour long, Scorsese-directed gender swapped version of A League of Their Own. It stars Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, and Mo’ne Davis. It will be cinema.
February: The Blue Jays show some concern as Vladimir Guerrero Jr seems to have gained more weight during the offseason, ballooning up to 300 pounds, and requesting a position change to designated hitter.
March: Tragedy strikes Tampa Bay as Tropicana Field is mistaken for an abandoned shopping mall and torn down by a demolitions company. The goof isn’t noticed for almost a week until a group of Yankees fans arrives to buy tickets.
April: Trevor Bauer finally decides to sign with someone, and signs a $69 million, 4.20 year deal with the White Sox for the express purpose of trying to get suspended by Tony La Russa.
May: The Rays announce they are rebuilding Tropicana Field exactly as it was, brick-for-brick. They put out a call for any Yankees fans who might have attended the stadium in the last few years to send pictures to work off of, as the original plans for the Trop were traded to the Mariners for cash considerations years ago.
Nelson Cruz invites controversy after choosing the 17 minute version of ‘In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida’ as his walkup song, and not stepping into the box until the entire song is finished. He manages to avoid getting plunked by pitchers until he starts doing air-guitars with the bat and drumming the solo on home plate.
June: The MLB marketing team jumps back into action by putting pictures of Spiderman on the bases, presumably on direct order from J. Jonah Jameson. This is immediately met with massive backlash from every human being on earth, including Spiderman himself. Bud Selig counters, “Suck it up, buttercup.” This is a real thing that happened.
The Braves pay Bruce Sutter ten million dollars and thank their lucky stars that Bobby Bonilla gets all the press.
July: The umpire’s union receives serious backlash after Ron Kulpa blows a ball-strike ball on a David Price perfect game in progress, causing him to walk Nick Castellanos with two outs in the first inning.
Joe Buck broadcasts the entire Home Run Derby solo, saying, ‘And we will see you tomorrow night’ in a straight, monotone voice for every single home run; gradually increasing in volume until he yells at the top of his lungs continually during the final round. It receives the highest ever ratings for any television event ever. Jo Adell wins with three total home runs.
On July 21st, in a game against the Diamondbacks, Kenley Jansen intentionally balks to move a runner from second to third. Sensing unwritten rules being broken, Brian McCann punches his way out of his grave beneath the mound and hits Jansen with a DDT, killing him instantly.
August: Tony La Russa publicly announces he is moving on to a more sabermetric way of managing, and moves his center fielder out of the first spot in the batting order. “Perhaps, depending on how this goes, I may even move the catcher out of the ninth spot in the order.”
September: As their season ends, the Ohio Indians announce another name change, citing how large the backlash was and how offensive they learned their name was to the millions of people who were not acclimatized to it. They are now known as the Lake Erie Indians.
October: The Marlins, after years of careful management by Derek Jeter, sweep the National League playoffs on their way to a World Series victory over the Athletics in six games. Immediately after hoisting the trophy, the entire front office is sold off to other franchises to save salary room.
After the World Series, Bud Selig officially announces his retirement as MLB commissioner. “After thirty years in this position, it’s time for me to move on. I am grateful to the owners throughout Major League Baseball for their unwavering support and for allowing me to lead this great institution. I thank our players, who give me unlimited enthusiasm about the future of our game. Together we have taken this sport to new heights and have positioned our national pastime to thrive for generations to come. Most of all, I would like to thank our fans, who are the heart and soul of our game.” Tony Clark is thought to be next in line for the position.
November: Bill James publishes his new book, The Measure of a Man, where he has an exact formula worked out for the value of individual human lives. Mike Trout is worth exactly $290,322,784.32. You are worth twelve cents.
December: The Winter Meetings begin with a bang as the Mariners announce they are trading Kyle Lewis for ten of the Yankees’ wins next year. DiPoto says, “They probably won’t need them, and although we aren’t going to get enough to win the whole shebang, we might be able to get the 15 percent share to get an invite to the debates. With that kind of media coverage, who knows where we can go?”

2023

January: The Nationals announce that Mike Rizzo is stepping down as President of Baseball Operations, but not before giving himself ‘a full and legal pardon for all crimes he may or may not have committed while in his position, and for all the crimes he may or may not commit in the future.’
The Athletic releases a shocking exposé showing that Tim Wakefield’s ‘rolling contract’ on the Red Sox will actually never expire due to a legal technicality. The Red Sox owe him $4 million, every year, until the heat death of the universe.
February: The MLB marketing team puts pictures of Mike Trout on milk cartons, with the caption, ‘Have You Seen This Kiiiiiiiid?’. The only result is the occasional call to the missing persons hotline whenever somebody accidentally tunes into an Angels game.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. arrives at spring training announcing that he feels lighter and faster than ever, due to his fat folds being held up by repulsorlifts like Baron Vladimir Harkonnen in Dune.
March: Disaster strikes the Oakland Coliseum as the Wave takes hold of the stadium on opening day. Thousands of people die either of exhaustion or starvation. The governor attempts to declare a disaster zone, but finds out that legally, the entirety of Oakland has been a disaster for the last thirty years.
April: Nothing happened this month.
May: The Boston Red Sox are caught up in yet another cheating scandal, where the Blue Jays allege that Tom Brady, somehow, managed to deflate their baseballs before a key playoff game in 2022.
Byron Buxton runs headfirst into a Mack truck that was accidentally left parked in Target Field’s outfield by the ground crew. He loses eight ribs from the resulting surgery and is out for 6-8 weeks.
Robbie Cano is banned from the MLB for life after testing positive for shooting up black tar heroin into his eyeball.
June: Matt Holliday is suspended from his broadcast job after claims that, in the past, he had ‘inappropriately touched’ home plate during his Rockies career.
Tom Brady is ambushed at his house by Brian McCann and tombstoned directly into the driveway, killing him instantly. There are no witnesses.
July: Fernando Tatis Jr. is suspended by the Padres without pay for a week after being hit by a pitch with the bases loaded while up by twelve over the Dodgers. John Smoltz condemns his repulsive behavior by running up the score. Lynch mobs assemble outside Petco Park.
Billy Hamilton wins the Home Run Derby after discovering that inside the park home runs are not technically banned. He racks up 783 home runs in the first round alone before the kids playing the outfield figure out what’s going on.
August: Matt Holliday is cleared and reinstated to his job after no evidence was found of him actually touching home plate. In a public statement, he thanks the Padres for their longtime support and their hard work to clear his name in this matter.
During a Braves-Marlins game, the disembodied head of Joe Buck appears on the Fox Sports South broadcast on all cameras and stares wistfully into the camera for twenty-two seconds before bleeding from the eyes and fading away. Buck declines to comment on the matter.
September: Jose Canseco announces in a tweet that, if he is not elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veteran’s Committee immediately, he will not intervene to save us all from the upcoming singularity robot apocalypse.
October: In the Wild Card game against the Blue Jays, the Astros again invite controversy by calling the other team’s bullpen phone constantly and telling Ken Giles to stop warming up; twenty-seven times in the eighth inning alone. With Toronto unable to use their bullpen, Russell Martin comes in for the save situation and gives up seventeen runs. Charlie Montoyo attempts to protest the game, but the Astros yell so loud at the umpires that they can’t hear what he’s saying.
Pete Rose reveals that he was behind the 1978 Boston College point shaving scandal, and boy, did he make a ton of money from that. He is immediately banned for life from the Basketball Hall of Fame.
November: Both the American and National leagues award their MVP award to Albert Belle despite him being out of the league for twenty years, as he certainly did not deserve to lose to Mo Vaughn in 1995. Pedro Martinez finishes a close second.
Albert Pujols’ home run against Brad Lidge finally lands, killing millions on impact.
December: At the Winter Meetings, Brett Favre formally announces his retirement from the NFL.
The Yankees flex their checks and sign one of the best pitchers ever to have played the game for 15yrs/450million: Christopher Robin from Winnie The Pooh Home Run Derby.

2024

January: In an explosive piece of investigative journalism, The Athletic discovers that Joe Buck has ties to Russia. Buck categorically denied the allegations in a press statement, adding, ‘And we will see you tomorrow night. In court.’
Jose Canseco is unanimously elected to the Hall of Fame.
February: Vladimir Guerrero Jr arrives at spring training by oozing through the windows of the practice facility and reforming himself into a man-like form in the hallways. He moves to the outfield, as he now covers enough ground that the ball will never hit the turf.
March: MLB The Show 2024 releases to rave reviews from critics, despite being the exact same game as MLB the Show 2023 and MLB the Show 2022. It is voted the best sports game of the year for the simple fact that they did not remove features from last year’s game.
On opening day, Dusty Baker announces to the umpires that he will be playing the entire season under protest. He gives no explanation.
April: Spencer Torkelson makes his MLB debut for the Tigers, lasting an entire at-bat before the umpires pull him from the game and send him back to the 1890s where his name belongs.
The Yankees announce that they are moving away from the pinstripe uniforms which have dominated their style since the early days of the club, and are switching to more iconic and beloved uniforms - the 1970s Houston Astros rainbow jerseys, effective immediately. Yankees fans strenuously object because it’s harder to look like assholes when wearing bright, happy colors.
May: Aroldis Chapman mirrors Randy Johnson when, during a save opportunity at Yankee Stadium, he brings down a low-flying single engine plane with a pitch, killing the pilot. This becomes the second-worst plane accident involving a Yankees pitcher in New York in the last twenty years.. [Editor’s note: This is not a 9/11 joke. That would be incredibly distasteful and disrespectful to the thousands of Americans that died on that day. This is a joke about Corey Lidle, whose death is slightly more socially acceptable to make light of.]
June: Scientists working with the New York Yankees announce new developments in doing The Wave, led by observations at Yankee Stadium. This new version of The Wave, endorsed by Yankees fans around the world, will be done only with the middle finger.
July: MLBFilms announce their next release - a collaboration with Warner Bros: Scooby-Doo! Batter Up!, where the Scooby gang meets Bryce Harper and the Phillies and have to defeat a ghost that possessed the Philly Phanatic and locked the team inside Citizens Bank Park. The city of Philadelphia defeats the ghost by throwing batteries at it, and it’s revealed to have been Gritty all along. This is not a joke.
For the fifteenth and final time, the Reds pay Ken Griffey Jr. 3.6 million dollars, ending his deferred contract. The Reds front office once again thanks the Mets for being such boneheads that nobody cares that other teams have far, far worse deferred contracts than they do. Although none of the other ones had to do with Bernie Madoff.
August: The Blue Jays announce that they are negotiating with LeBron James, Jr for a minor league deal.
Brett Gardner tests positive for having a giant fucking head and is suspended by the MLB for 80 games. He appeals on grounds of the test possibly being a false positive, and the possibility that vitamins he took were contaminated, and that, as a sovereign citizen, the MLB has no right to test him. He also tests positive for eleven different steroids, which he does not contest.
September: Tony La Russa announces his retirement at the end of the season, citing his early stages of dementia. This confirms the rumors that spread around the league after La Russa wandered off in the middle of a game to find the nearest Cracker Barrel.
October: Fernando Tatis Jr. disrespects the game of baseball by arriving at Petco for a game after the Padres have clinched the top seed in the playoffs. Brain McCann materializes out of the aether and hits Tatis with an elbow off the top ropes, killing him instantly.
The MLB announces a new broadcast format for the World Series, where Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy will sit silhouetted in front of a screen with the official Joe Buck/Tim McCarver broadcast and heckle them constantly, MST3k style. It is cancelled after one game after complaints from Joe Buck’s mother.
November: Radical sabermetricians make the news by making threats against the MLB, warning that unless announcers actually learn how WAR and FIP work, ‘there will be consequences’. Commissioner Tony Clark gives a strong speech, responding that the MLB ‘does not negotiate with terrorists. We don’t even negotiate with the MLBPA most of the time’’.
December: The Red Sox trade Tim Wakefield’s rolling contract to the Mariners in exchange for the Mariners’ franchise history and the cutout of a baseball player that sits outside a Lowe’s in Seattle.

2025

January: The St. Louis Cardinals accidentally delete their Excel 95 spreadsheet listing their minor league prospects. It’s estimated that up to 200 ballplayers were lost, and though scouts managed to retrieve some of them, a large number still cannot be accounted for.
February: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. announces his retirement from baseball to star in an MLBFilms remake of ‘The Blob’.
March: The MLB floats the idea of having a ‘three batter minimum’ for pitchers, so that teams won’t continually switch pitchers to gain a handedness advantage. This is laughed at by everyone, so they forget about it. The idea never comes up again.
April: In an otherwise routine game at Target Field, Byron Buxton is tracking down a routine pop fly when he suddenly runs headlong into the evidence that Pete Rose bet against the Reds, shattering every bone in his body and eight in Max Kepler’s.
May: The Mets broadcast leaves a live mic on Zach Greinke, which picks up what he’s constantly mumbling about while on the mound. A transcript: “Dog carcass in alley this morning. Tire tread on burst stomach. The city is afraid [strikes out Tim Anderson] of me. I have seen it's true face. The streets are extended gutters and the gutters are full of blood and when the drains finally scab over all the [induces a Chad Wallach pop-up] vermin will drown. The accumulated filth of all their sex and murder will foam up about their waists and and all the whores and politicians will look up and shout "save us!"... and I'll look down from the mound and [retires Derek Dietrich on three pitches] whisper "no"”
June: June 28, 2025. A date which will live in infamy. Everyone remembers where they were on that day. The pictures are burned into the brain of every man, woman, and child watching the All-Star game.
The black helicopter landing in center field.
The masked figures kicking a bound and gagged David Eckstein out of the door.
Their speech through the loudspeaker system, calling for the deaths of all those who stood in the way of progress. You all know what followed.
When that helicopter took off, leaving a four foot eight corpse on the field, the relationship between baseball and statistics was changed forever. SABR was declared a terrorist organization, and although Bill James denied any involvement and denounced the perpetrators, he would never be looked at the same. The FBI tracks him for the rest of his life.
July: C.C. Sabathia, Brian McCann, and the corpse of David Eckstein are inducted into the Hall of Fame. During his speech, Sabathia briefly mentions breaking the unwritten rules of baseball, and Brian McCann hits him with a steel chair, killing him instantly.
A huge remembrance of David Eckstein’s life takes place among the media.
“How can a man weighing 45 pounds and only two and a half feet tall make such an impression on the hearts of man? Not everyone has the grit, the determination, the grit, the dirtiness, the courage, the grit, or the grit to win in the MLB, but that’s only because Eckstein took the grit from all those people to use himself.”
“We all remember Eckstein single-handedly dragging the Cardinals to a World Series victory, but it’s easy to overlook his other work, and not just because he was so short. This was a man whose bodily fluids were filled with lunch pails.”
August: SABR’s hitlist is leaked by government agencies. It includes the two bozos who left Pedro Martinez off the MVP ballot, 90’s Joe Carter, John Smoltz, and everyone who ever wrote an article about David Eckstein, ‘to wipe clean the scum of the earth’. All of these people are immediately placed under police protection except John Smoltz, who refused it as he never believed in sabermetrics anyway.
September: A source inside the MLB suggests that they should have been more prepared for a terrorist attack, saying, “These guys are literally named SABR - could they have more of a Bond villain secret organization name? And look at their mission statement: ‘we seek the deaths of those who would desecrate our great national pastime, and those who refuse to understand it.’ - shouldn’t that have turned some heads? I believe that the MLB intentionally ignored this threat so they could go to war with SABR and then seize their oil”. Tony Clark refuses comment.
Tony La Russa announces his retirement from baseball at the end of the season.
October: After a long and storied career, Albert Pujols announces his retirement and immediately ages 150 years to return to his true age like Donovan at the end of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. Both dugouts rush his desiccated body to claim the bones as good luck charms.
November: David Eckstein is posthumously inducted into the Rock n’ Roll Hall of Fame as an honorary member of the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band.
The NAACP makes headlines when they release their list of Greatest Baseball Players of All Time, due to Jose Bautista taking the #1 spot over from Jackie Robinson. They justify it by saying ‘Jose Bautista is the Harriet Tubman of his times”.
December: After missing the playoffs for the tenth straight year, the Philadelphia Phillies trade Bryce Harper to the New York Yankees for a sack of potatoes.
Part 2: 2026-2030
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Been on a tear at Win Daily

After a 10-0 night on the sports betting side of windailsports.com one of our subscribers took two $100 dollar bets and turned it into almost 80 grand last night! I asked boss man if I could share the love on reddist so that anyone who wanted could take advantage of the arrival of Mike North, one of the best minds in the sports betting industry and the recent run we have been on and he said to go for it. So here you go ladies and gentlemen.
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Cash with Flash has NBA, NCAAB & NHL Predictions for tonight!!
Glad to see you and we hope that your sports betting endeavors are going well. It’s been difficult handicapping professional sporting contests but if you’ve been tailing me, listening to my show, or read my books then you have been making money.
Cash with Flash Best Bets has 2020-2021 season-long totals of 66-53-1 for NFL football, 48-21 in NCAAF, 40-29 for NCAAB, 15-9 in NHL, 53-31-1 in the NBA, and 85-45 for tennis this season.
Had you wagered $100 dollars on each pick we offered you’d be ahead of the game by about $10,000 since September 8, 2020. That’s not too shabby.
Tuesday was a terrific bounce-back day. We went 3-0 on the day and improved our Win Daily Sports record to 4-4.
Yup, just like that we erased a tough Monday night.
I employ a fixed-unit system of bankroll management. I explain this system and its nuances (along with other systems) in my books but the gist of it goes like this; I play one unit on every contest I have an edge in. No more and no less. I’m able to do this because I have a career winning percentage of 56.6 percent and winning at a 62 percent clip this season.
It’s not the sexiest way of doing things that’s for sure but it does work for me. Let’s see what we have on tap for today!
📷
NBA 2020-2021 Money Line Leaders
1). New York Knicks +3.7
2). Charlotte Hornets +3.6
3). Chicago Bulls +3.1
4). Utah Jazz +2.7
5). Detroit +2.5
NBA 2020-201 ATS Leaders
1). New York Knicks (13-13) +3.7
2). Charlotte Hornets (14-11-1) +3.6
3). Chicago Bulls (14-10) +3.1
4). Utah Jazz (18-7) +3.1
5). Detroit Pistons (+3)
Wager $10 on DET📷To Beat IND:$22.25Lose by less than 3:$19.09To Lose:$16.83 (13-10-1) +2.5
NBA 2020-2021 Totals Leaders
1). Brooklyn Nets (19-8 over record) +6.0
2). Denver Nuggets (18-6 over record) +5.6
3). Milwaukee Bucks (15-9-1 over record) +4.9
4). Detroit Pistons (14-10) +3.7
5). Chicago Bulls (13-11) +3.3
We have five games on the NBA schedule but Cash with Flash is only interested in a couple of these contests.
Indiana Pacers (-3)
Wager $10 on IND📷To Beat DET:$16.83Win by 3:$19.09To Lose:$22.25 vs Detroit Pistons (+3)
📷
Normally I would be all over the home underdog and especially so against an Indiana Pacers side on the wrong end of a four-game losing streak. Malcolm Brogdon and Domatas Sabonis have struggled mightily during this losing streak but they play a Pistons team allowing an average of 118 points per game over their past five contests. Detroit is coming off of a huge home victory over a Kevin Durant-less Brooklyn Nets side that ended a four-game losing streak of their own. The Pacers are the better offense and will take this one by four points or more. Take the Indiana Pacers with confidence tonight.
Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5)
Wager $10 on PHI📷To Beat POR:$14.70Win by 5.5:$19.10To Lose:$27.85 vs Portland Trail Blazers (+5.5)Wager $10 on POR📷To Beat PHI:$27.85Lose by less than 5.5:$19.10To Lose:$14.70 (+5.5)
Remember when the 76ers couldn’t win on the road? Those days seem to be over as Philadelphia is 7-5 and enters this matchup riding a two-game winning streak. They also have a red-hot Joel Embiid who’s averaging 32.3 points alongside 10.5 rebounds per game and the Trail Blazers don’t have anyone either living or dead who can stop him. Damian Lillard has been carrying the injury-plagued Trail Blazers but missed the Trail Blazers away victory over Philly one week ago. Ben Simmons also missed that contest and is raring to go but its looks as though Seth Curry will miss this tilt with an ankle injury. Lay the Points and take Philadelphia to cover the spread tonight.
NCAAB 2020-2021 Money Line Leaders
1). Colgate +10.2
2). Morehead State +8.3
3). Wright State +7.9
4). UC Riverside +7.2
5). Prairie View +6.8
NCAAB 2020-2021 ATS Leaders
1). Colgate (5-3) +10.2
2). Morehead State (14-5) +8.3
3). Wright State (12-7) +7.9
4). UC Riverside (8-3-1) +7.2
5). Praire View (10-1) +6.8
NCAAB 2020-2021 Totals Leaders
📷
1). American University (3-1 over) +13.9
2). Long Beach State (6-2 over) +11.4
3). St Francis NY (7-4 over) +10.7
4). Cal Baptist (9-3 over) +9.6
5). Southern Utah (8-3) +8.2
There are several NCAAB games tonight and Cash with Flash likes one contest very much. You must stay out ahead of injuries plus coronavirus concerns and the best website I know for this would be Newsday.
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State (138.5 Total)
A majority of these two sides’ contests have ended under the total and I suspect that this one won’t be that much different when they meet tonight. Three of their last five meetings have ended under the total and these are two fairly good defenses. Georgia State has one of the best turnover percentages in the college game but Southern is twelfth in the nation at causing turnovers. Neither side shoots the ball well from long range and both squads have pedestrian offensive rebound percentages. Take the UNDER in this one!
NHL Top Five Winning Teams
We’re not talking about how many games a team wins but how much money you would win had you wagered $100 on each of the following teams’ total games this season.
1). Toronto Maple Leafs $470
2). Carolina Hurricanes (-1.5)
Wager $10 on CAR📷To Beat DAL:$17.90Win by 1.5:$28.48To Lose:$20.89 $264
3). Tampa Bay Lightning (-1.5)Wager $10 on TAM📷To Beat FLA:$16.25Win by 1.5:$25.54To Lose:$23.82 $247
4). Boston BruinsWager $10 on BOS📷To Beat NYR:$15.44To Lose:$25.02 $246
5). Vegas Golden Knights (-1.5)Wager $10 on LAS📷To Beat ANA:$14.40Win by 1.5:$17.74To Lose:$29.15 $189
NHL Top Five Losing Teams
📷
1). Ottawa Senators (+1.5)
Wager $10 on OTT📷To Beat WIN:$27.60Lose by less than 1.5:$17.51To Lose:$14.85 -$765
2). Detroit Red Wings (+1.5)Wager $10 on DET📷To Beat NAS:$25.27Lose by less than 1.5:$16.44To Lose:$15.69 -$523
3). New York RangersWager $10 on NYR📷To Beat BOS:$25.02To Lose:$15.44 -$427
4). Vancouver Canucks (+1)Wager $10 on VAN📷To Beat CAL:$21.89Lose by less than 1:$23.56To Lose:$17.19 -$453
5). Nashville Predators (-1.5)Wager $10 on NAS📷To Beat DET:$15.69Win by 1.5:$16.44To Lose:$25.27 -$419
Carolina Hurricanes vs Dallas Stars (+1.5)
Wager $10 on DAL📷To Beat CAR:$20.89Lose by less than 1.5:$28.48To Lose:$17.90 (O/U 5.5 Goals)
I can see grabbing Carolina at -121 tonight but I don’t think that would be the best bet for this contest. Carolina has a terrific offense and scores an average of 3.14 goals per game and the Stars average 3.33 goals scored per game but has lit the lamp just five times over their last three matchups. James Reimer will likely tend to the twine and he’s allowed 16 goals over his past four starts and Anton Khudobin has allowed 11 goals over the past three starts including seven goals over two consecutive losses to Carolina during that same three-game span. Take the OVER in this game!!
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Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service
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Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

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"RedAlertWagers.com is sad to announce Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman has passed away due to COVID-19 complications, this is a sorrowful day for the Vegas betting community and all of us at RedAlertWagers.com - Services will be held at YOUR MOMS HOUSE!!! Get out of here, MAC is alive and well and picking games that will pop your bookies wallet harder than a nun's cherry in a apple orchard: $7.00 GETS COMPLETE ACCESS to ALL MAC's Action from Sports to Stocks!"
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Join Now - Members will get all of MAC's resources and reports on playable companies, profitable option moves, and hedged moves. The market is prime for the pickens and MAC has allocated his time and resources to taking advantage of the recent crash, seeking investment opportunities that will make that corona cash
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20 X $50 PARLAY FREE BETS - Only at InterTops.eu Disclaimer: RedAlertWagers.com nor Roland McGuillaman are professional financial analysts or experienced investors. The information shown in this tier is mainly collected from publicly accessible sources on the Internet. We try our best to make sure the information is correct, we are not allowed and therefor cannot guarantee all of info/opinions are 100% accurate or reliable.
"Do not take this as trading advice, all information, content, and postings are meant for entertainment and learning purposes"

Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!

There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.

The MGM Grand has been Roland's favorite book for the last few years, and his good friends at Liquor World across the street on E. Tropicana have treated MAC well over the years, sponsoring the annual Red Alert Wagers SS LLC Baseball Pick'em Tournament in the city of sin consecutively for over a decade! MAC has been moving and shaking in Vegas for a long time and has been comped plenty of rooms, plenty of extra services, but this trip is strictly betting business - Members will also receive all MAC's Red Alert Premium Plays + All Special Release Picks & MAC's Stock Moves and Alerts - Join Here

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The MAC'S consensus groups & affiliates span the nation, our NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NBA, NHL. MMA, eSports, and Horse Racing Red Alert and Special Release Picks have been setting records this season. The RedAlertWagers.com team of national consensus groups have been tapping sources, vetting information, and shaking down bookies to get the very best edge available. RedAlertWagers.com is sponsored & supported by MyBookie - Join MyBookie.com and Use Promo Code "THEMAC" to get up to $1000 in Deposit Bonuses, $500 in Reload Bonuses, $20 Free Bets, Casino Cash Back Bonuses and More!
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Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service
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Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

Join The Patreon for only $7.00!

MAC's Sports & Stock Picks -
"RedAlertWagers.com is sad to announce Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman has passed away due to COVID-19 complications, this is a sorrowful day for the Vegas betting community and all of us at RedAlertWagers.com - Services will be held at YOUR MOMS HOUSE!!! Get out of here, MAC is alive and well and picking games that will pop your bookies wallet harder than a nun's cherry in a apple orchard: $7.00 GETS COMPLETE ACCESS to ALL MAC's Action from Sports to Stocks!"
Exclusive access to MAC Attack Red Alert Picks, Top Rated Release Plays, Stock Pick Alerts, and Volcano Alerts + MAC's resources and reports on playable companies, profitable option moves, Investing Interests, Stock Watch-lists, and Charts. MAC has built a solid Corona Pandemic Portfolio filled with the hottest, safest, and most importantly " LUCRATIVE" money makers available on the market.
Join Now - Members will get all of MAC's resources and reports on playable companies, profitable option moves, and hedged moves. The market is prime for the pickens and MAC has allocated his time and resources to taking advantage of the recent crash, seeking investment opportunities that will make that corona cash
Daily reports Hot Picks Options Plays Watch Lists Cryptocurrency Moves and More.
20 X $50 PARLAY FREE BETS - Only at InterTops.eu Disclaimer: RedAlertWagers.com nor Roland McGuillaman are professional financial analysts or experienced investors. The information shown in this tier is mainly collected from publicly accessible sources on the Internet. We try our best to make sure the information is correct, we are not allowed and therefor cannot guarantee all of info/opinions are 100% accurate or reliable.
"Do not take this as trading advice, all information, content, and postings are meant for entertainment and learning purposes"

Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!

There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.

The MGM Grand has been Roland's favorite book for the last few years, and his good friends at Liquor World across the street on E. Tropicana have treated MAC well over the years, sponsoring the annual Red Alert Wagers SS LLC Baseball Pick'em Tournament in the city of sin consecutively for over a decade! MAC has been moving and shaking in Vegas for a long time and has been comped plenty of rooms, plenty of extra services, but this trip is strictly betting business - Members will also receive all MAC's Red Alert Premium Plays + All Special Release Picks & MAC's Stock Moves and Alerts - Join Here

They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!

The MAC'S consensus groups & affiliates span the nation, our NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NBA, NHL. MMA, eSports, and Horse Racing Red Alert and Special Release Picks have been setting records this season. The RedAlertWagers.com team of national consensus groups have been tapping sources, vetting information, and shaking down bookies to get the very best edge available. RedAlertWagers.com is sponsored & supported by MyBookie - Join MyBookie.com and Use Promo Code "THEMAC" to get up to $1000 in Deposit Bonuses, $500 in Reload Bonuses, $20 Free Bets, Casino Cash Back Bonuses and More!
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best bets against the spread college basketball video

The College Football Betting Show (Week #3 - College ... Maryland vs Michigan Predictions and Spread (College Basketball Picks and Odds - February 16, 2019) College Basketball Picks and Predictions WagerTalk's ... Virginia vs Florida State 1/28/20 Free College Basketball ... Bet On It - College Football Picks and Predictions for ... College Football Predictions Week 3 - YouTube

Get college basketball expert picks against the spread and totals for every game involving a Power 5 Conference or Top 25 team. We also have you covered for every game of March Madness 2021. Check out our College Basketball Best Bets for our top plays on today’s games. NCAA Basketball – 1.14.2021 – Best Bets for Thursday’s College Hoops (Free) By. Anthony Marro-January 14, 2021. 46. Facebook. Twitter . Google+. Pinterest. WhatsApp. Hello Daily Play Action! Anthony Marro here happy to share my NCAA Men’s Basketball picks for the college hoops season. Over the past three years I provided readers with over 500 winning bets. Betting write-ups will be College Basketball ATS Stats - Best and Worst Against The Spread View and Compare The Most and Least Profitable College Basketball Teams on The Current Season Including Best and Worst ATS Win Percentages, Most Units Won, Most Units Lost, Best and Worst Percentage Over The Total and Best and Worst Percentage Under The Total. Expert College Basketball picks and predictions from SportsLine.com College Basketball Against the Spread Rankings provided by VegasInsider.com, along with more NCAA Basketball information for your sports gaming and betting needs. Welcome to our college basketball best bets section where we outline our top college basketball plays each day throughout the 2020-21 season. If you want our plays for all other college basketball games then head over to our College Basketball Picks And Predictions page. We have free picks for every game on the slate and a weekly parlay. NCAA Basketball – 1.16.2021 – Best Bets for Saturday’s College Hoops (Free) By. Anthony Marro-January 16, 2021. 16. Facebook. Twitter . Google+. Pinterest. WhatsApp. Hello Daily Play Action! Anthony Marro here happy to share my NCAA Men’s Basketball picks for the college hoops season. Over the past three years I provided readers with over 500 winning bets. Betting write-ups will be College Basketball Picks & NCAA Predictions. If the college game is your specialty, then you’ve come to the right place. Picks and Parlays is the leading source of information and expert NCAA basketball picks – giving you the winners you need to dominate the sportsbooks. We provide the best college basketball predictions, covering you for all lined games all season long, from November Best college basketball parlay picks, bets, odds for February 9, 2021 from proven computer model The SportsLine Projection Model reveals its top college basketball parlay picks for Tuesday Predictions Methodology. Below are our projections for all of the games in college basketball today. The projections that we provide are now at a “Level 3” (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the winner and score.

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[index] [5023] [6079] [737] [2061] [3287] [2035] [113] [9247] [5135] [5503]

The College Football Betting Show (Week #3 - College ...

Virginia vs Florida State 1/28/20 Free College Basketball Pick and Prediction CBB Betting Tips The Florida State Seminoles visit the Virginia Cavaliers in Tu... Maryland Terrapins vs Michigan Wolverines Predictions, Picks and Odds for their College Basketball showdown on February 16, 2019, from Crisler Center. Direct from Las Vegas, WagerTalk.com, TV host ... 💰 In this week's episode of Bet On it direct from Las Vegas, Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, and Gianni "The Greek Gambler" break down College Football Week ... 🏈 In this episode of The College Football Betting Show for Week #3 The Prez, Dave Cokin, and Teddy Covers give out their college football picks and predicti... Shaun and Mike break down and give their predictions for college football week 3 in 2019. Don't forget to enter for a chance to win a copy of Madden 20. Wat... College Basketball Picks, Predictions and Odds: Get your daily fix of college hoops with Ralph Michaels, Joe Raineri and a rotating panel of handicapping gue...

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