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Why Dogecoin to $1 is Only a Matter of Time

The Bubble
It’s February of 2021, and let’s be completely honest: We’re in a bubble. It’s kind of like 1999 but not the same. In 1999, interest rates were much higher. Today, they are nearly zero. In some countries, they are even negative. From a long-term perspective, this is very bad.
The Federal Reserve is completely to blame for this. Their policies are entirely reckless, and officials refuse to acknowledge what is going on here. The Coronavirus hysteria caused by the media and enabled by officials made the crash last summer the worst man-made disaster in the history of our financial system. The Great Depression was caused by over-speculation and a lack of regulation in an emerging financial system. The Great Recession was caused by greed and fraud (strangely, no one is in jail for this). This market collapse was caused by elected officials and the fed, who got trigger-happy and cut rates to zero back in the spring of 2020.
Whatever we wind up calling the burst of this bubble is to be determined. It will, however, be entirely manmade because the fed refuses to acknowledge the speculative behavior currently going on in SPACs, Cryptos, Penny Stocks, and anything else that serves as a legal Ponzi scheme for inflating the bubble. Even real, dividend-paying stocks have gotten way overvalued in some sectors. Also, since the fed has no plans of raising rates within the next two years (so they say for now, at least), if you’re searching for yield, you have nowhere else to look than the equities markets or one of these legalized forms of Ponzi schemes. It’s extremely unfair to conservative or retired investors looking for an honest return on their savings. This all is actually why it is a great time to look at Dogecoin, as I will get to in a moment. So long as rates are near zero, the bubble will continue to go on for longer and longer. And while it continues, people will constantly look for the next big thing.
For How Long?
Now, this may sound all doom and gloom, but that’s not my point. One day the bubble will burst, but I’m not making a prediction of when that will happen. Anyone making up dates for when the bubble will burst is either clueless or a con artist. No one knows when this bubble will burst. It could be weeks, months, or even years. One thing is for sure, the bubble will not burst just because things are overvalued. That’s not how bubbles work.
There needs to be a catalyst to burst the bubble. A major military conflict. An unexpected move or comment by the fed (raising rates, calling out the bubble for what it is, etc.). Another nationwide lockdown. I can go on with examples, but a little selloff here and there (August 2020) that causes the financial media to lose its mind is not enough. Just because you claim the bubble is bursting isn’t enough either. If you follow the media, you will get burned over and over again. That’s how it works. They want you to go to their sponsors for help, and once they burn you (sell you gold, overcharge you for poor investments, etc), you’ll come back to them hoping to figure things out. It’s a shell game. When the bubble burst, it will happen extremely fast and unexpectedly. There’s nothing wrong with playing the bubble, but you need to be mindful of when it ends because once the music stops, there will be a mad rush for the exits. You don’t want to be stuck holding the bag because everything will get crushed when the bubble burst. Even the blue-chip stocks that pay solid dividends will get hammered.
Fundamentals Don’t Matter (For Now)
In this bubble environment, fundamentals don’t make sense and, quite frankly, they don’t matter. You can argue back and forth all day long about whether something has a practical future or whether something is overvalued. I’m not here to do that about Dogecoin, Bitcoin, or any other crypto. The same could be said about Penny Stocks right now. (Hint: virtually all of these companies are way overvalued). You can find tons of articles of that nature, and I’m not likely to change your preconceived notions anyway. If we look at all the irrational bubbles that have occurred lately, you are a complete fool if you believe that TSLA or BTC is worth nearly a trillion dollars. It’s worth nowhere near that valuation.
How do I determine what something is worth, and who do I mean? It is called the market cap. In layman’s terms, that is where you take all the stock shares and multiply it by the share price. And I’m not recommending buying or selling TSLA or BTC, I’m just pointing out that these valuations are absurd. Does that mean they will not pass 1 trillion dollars? Of course not. There’s a very reasonable chance they do pass a $1 trillion market cap. That sounds absurd to write but it’s true. When the bubble bursts, you better believe fundamentals will be back in play. This disconnect can’t last forever. But it can go on for a while. And while it lasts, we all want to make some money
A Quick Word About ALL Cryptos
While I don’t believe Cryptocurrencies are going anywhere (as in, people will always buy and sell them), I also do not see any APPLICABLE future in them other than trading with other people. In fact, the biggest use I see of Cryptocurrencies is for illegal and untraceable transactions. The government will do all they can over the next several years to bring in lost tax revenue and track transactions better, but that’s the extent to which Cryptos will have relevance. How do I know this? Because the federal reserve, which is backed by the taxing authority of the US Government and the might of the US military, isn’t about to let some alternative currency usurp the US dollar. How do you think we can afford to provide all this government stimulus to fight Covid? If you think about this, you will see why other countries are much worse off. They must play by our rules, while we get to export our inflation to other countries because they must use the USD to buy commodities on the international exchanges (look at what happened when Saddam tried to circumvent this). If they print more money, their currency gets devalued. That’s why as bad as things look, relatively speaking, the US isn’t in terrible shape compared to the rest of the world.
If your financial future is so married to Bitcoin, ask yourself this: what happens if your account gets hacked? Who will you call? Who will make you whole again? If you have a brokerage account with legitimate stocks, there are regulations in place. There is the SIPC which protects again brokerage failure. With Bitcoin, you are completely gambling. This lack of regulation and lack of price stability means that there is no viable path to Bitcoin being a legitimate currency. Does it mean people can buy and sell it? Of course. But if you are in the cult of believing that Bitcoin is the future world reserve currency, you need to get your head examined.
Gold and Silver con artists have been trying for decades for people to get on this alternative currency train. At least gold and silver have some practical industrial applications. And hundreds of years of history on its side. Crypto isn’t anything but something people agree upon as having value. Why do I point this out? Because the one thing you need to do is separate yourself from what you think you know about Crypto and Blockchain, etc. While it all sounds cool and revolutionary, it really doesn’t matter. The US government could easily create their own form of Crypto that gives them more control. The decentralized part just doesn’t jive with our current global hegemony. If you don’t understand this, you should think more and read less. Once you accept this, you can start to see all Crypto as fundamentally worth the same: virtually nothing. The technicals, however, are why we want to look at Dogecoin.
Relative Valuation of Dogecoin
Now that you understand a little more background into where we are, I believe Dogecoin is extremely undervalued. Why? It’s simple. Relative valuation. This is one of the easiest and most efficient ways to compare investments. Ok, so maybe this isn’t really investing anymore; it’s gambling. Still, we can apply the same concept. Imagine two companies: they are in the same industry and have similar margins, earnings, growth prospects, etc. One company is valued at $50 billion and costs $120 per share, and one is valued at $85 billion and costs $80 per share. Which one would you invest in? Of course, you would invest in the one that is worth $50 billion at $120 per share. The cost per share means absolutely nothing. It is psychological.
Now, you say Dogecoin isn’t on par with Bitcoin and that where I’m going with this isn’t a fair comparison. Go back and read the last section. That’s why I wrote about the practical applications of Cryptocurrencies in general. None of that matters. The only thing that matters is the general sentiments shared by people that buy and believe in Cryptocurrency. So, let’s look at the current valuations:
Bitcoin – Price $40,500, Market Cap $755B (estimated as of 2-6-21)
Dogecoin – Price $.05, Market Cap $4.4B (estimated as of 2-6-21)
(Source: Yahoo Finance)
Now, I’m not saying Dogecoin is worth what Bitcoin is. I’m not even saying it's worth half or a third of Bitcoin. Who really knows? No one does. You certainly cannot say for certain that one is better than another. One is more “established” and has more name recognition. What I am saying is this: if Dogecoin goes to $1, it will have a market cap of just over $85 billion. Even at Bitcoin’s current market cap, that’s just over 1/10 of its value. And that isn’t even pricing in more appreciation of Bitcoin’s value over time. This means I see tons of room for Dogecoin to run. (I know some will mention dilution via minting of new coins, but that’s another discussion and not entirely relevant to the points I am trying to make in this piece.)
Could Dogecoin match Bitcoin? That sounds absurd, but let’s look just for fun: if Dogecoin were to have the same market cap as Bitcoin, that means it would have a current price of $8.55. So, what am I saying here? You must know the range of possibilities (within reason, if that even exists anymore) before you start thinking about price targets. To say Dogecoin is going to $100 is just absurd; things need to be put in the proper context.
Why Dogecoin?
Using relative valuation, I believe you could make a case for any Crypto. Will they all run to Bitcoin’s level? Of course not. The last question is why Dogecoin? This is the most important one that we have to answer before deciding on buying Dogecoin. The answer is simple: hype and name recognition. If I look at the most valuable cryptocurrencies by market cap, Dogecoin is number 12. I have taken an informal survey of probably 100 people over the last two weeks. I showed them the top 15 Cryptocurrencies by market cap to see which they were familiar with: Stellar, Binance Coin, Cardano, Polkadot, XRP . . . almost all of these were completely unheard of. But, somehow, they have valuations of 2-3 times Dogecoin.
Dogecoin has a few things going for it. First, hype. Elon Musk and many other prominent celebrities are pilling in. Mark Cuban has said he’d buy it over a lottery ticket. That alone can help aid a very quick lift off. Second, the name Dogecoin is very easy to remember and a trendy thing. What the heck is Cardano anyway? XRP? I mistakenly called it XPR before I edited this piece. And if you are still hung up on the practical use of Dogecoin or other Cryptos, you are missing the point of this piece entirely. Look at the story behind Bitcoin. An anonymous person online created a decentralized platform for money movement or something like that. What? How in the world did that idea ever take traction? It’s just like people online arguing over which Penny Stock is the next big thing. Neither person is right, but the perception is really all that matters.
Third, stimulus checks will be hitting within weeks or months. This naturally promotes price inflation when people have more dollars chasing few goods. People will inevitably pile into whatever they think is the next great thing. Dogecoin has momentum right now. And this brings me to number four.
Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, FOMO is very powerful right now. There are people all over the world that know people who have won big money in this bubble. Penny stocks, GameStop, Bitcoin, and many others that you can name. How many people do you personally know that have won big in the lottery? Probably none. This is a unique time in history. People have won big in this market and are looking for the next thing.
Dogecoin is something that could pick up steam quickly. It could blow up overnight. It may not, and that is the risk you take. At the end of the day, it’s just money that you can always make more of. Life-changing money is worth the risk when you find the right risk-reward ratio.
Do your due diligence, but also think ahead to a scenario that you could imagine. Would you be that surprised if Dogecoin reached $1? And if it did, would you be surprised if it started running towards multiple dollars? $1 is a psychological number that typically leads to a further breakout. The current market cap suggests this is all very possible. Now imagine getting in at four or five cents.
Disclosure: Long Dogecoin with Diamond Hands. No positions in any other things mentioned. -BJ

Not your parents PLAYBOY: How Playboy is reinventing themselves and why you should Invest $MCAC

I know what you're already thinking. Playboy is a dead porn brand that publishes a magazine and doesn't appeal to millennials or gen z right?
Wrong.
Leadership
Let's start with Ben Kohn, the CEO. Kohn has worked in private equity for 25 years and started a firm called Rizvi Travers which invested in pre IPO tech companies. They were the largest investor when Twitter went public and invested in Facebook, Snapchat, Square, SpaceX, Instacart, and Uber.
In 2011, Kohn partnered with Hugh Hefner and took Playboy private. Kohn became the CEO in 2017 with the goal of revitalizing one of the largest, most recognizable brands in the world. Since becoming CEO, Kohn has been shutting down most of the legacy business and most recently discontinued producing a domestic magazine. He's focused most of his attention so far on growing the high margin licensing business and direct to consumer business, transforming Playboy into a consumer lifestyle brand focusing on 4 categories:

Sexual Wellness
Style & Apparel
Gaming & Lifestyle
Beauty & Grooming

Kohn is also placing a strong emphasis on appealing to women and young people, something that Playboy had never done in the past. Over the last 3 years, the female audience has grown by 70% and 90% of their audience today is under the age of 40. Out of the total e-commerce sales, 40% of customers are women.
Financials
Playboy is already a profitable business. They have a highly efficient, high margin business model that accelerates with growth.
For the first 9 months of 2020, Playboy grew revenue by 78% from 57 million to 101 million and grew adjusted ebitda 129% from 9.5 million to 22 million. For 2021, they reaffirmed guidance of 167 million of revenue and 40 million dollars of ebitda. By 2025, Playboy is conservatively projecting 296 million of revenue and 140 million in ebitda, but expects it to be much greater. It's also important to note that they have over 400 million of forward booked minimum guaranteed cash flow, but they only recognize 67 million of that today, so the actual revenue numbers are much higher.
Playboy's business is monetized in two primary ways, licensing and direct to consumer. Licensing is a key part of the revenue stream and they anticipate it more than doubling moving forward. However, Playboy is extremely excited about its growing direct to consumer business as well which I will dive into in the next section.
Growth
Playboy has huge growth opportunities in each of their 4 product categories. First I want to point out that Playboy is HUGE in China and it's growing rapidly in India. In China, Playboy is one of the leading men's apparel brands with over 2500 brick and mortar stores and over 1000 e-commerce stores. Playboy sells products in over 180 countries and is the 17th most licensed brand in the world.
Style & Apparel:
Over the last 3 years, Playboy has partnered with Pacsun, Misguided, Supreme, and others. The Pacsun and Misguided businesses have increased almost 15x over the last 3 years. Playboy also launched Playboy Labs and partnered with Steve Aoki to promote the brand. Playboy intends on transitioning this business from a pure licensing business to a direct to consumer business going forward. They have future collaborations with Yandy planned as well.
Sexual Wellness:
The sexual wellness category is a 240 billion dollar industry today and is projected to grow to 400 billion by 2024. Currently, the industry is fragmented and made up of small businesses with no ability to scale. Playboy is poised to become the leader in this category through strategic acquisitions of existing companies and by growing its product offerings. Yes, I'm talking about lingerie, condoms, sex toys etc. They recently acquired the sexual wellness retailer Lovers for 25 million and expect them to add 45 million in revenue over the next 12 months. They are planning on making more strategic acquisitions in this space moving forward to become the leading direct to consumer brand in this field. They also began offering online sexual wellness classes for women, which have seen large growth since inception.
Gaming & Lifestyle:
The growth opportunities in this category are huge. Playboy is diversifying into online gambling, mobile gaming, CBD/Marijuana, and virtual reality. They have a social club/poker room opening in Houston this year in addition to their casino in London. They currently have partnerships with Microgaming as well as Scientific Games for mobile gambling apps like slots and poker, with plans to build more. They are also planning on entering the sports gambling market through partnerships with well known sports betting operators.
Moreover, they recently launched an exclusive furniture collection on Wayfair and plan on offering more in the future. They currently offer 3 CBD products and have plans to enter the legal marijuana market when it's legalized at the federal level, which might happen soon under the Biden administration. As of now they sell Playboy branded smoking materials like ash trays and grinders. They are planning on launching 4 more CBD products in 2021. Lastly, Ben Kohn said that experiencing Playboy through a virtual world format is something that is "extremely interesting to us". He gave an example of the Travis Scott and Unreal Platform collaboration.
Beauty and Grooming:
Currently, Playboy offers men's and women's fragrances and color cosmetics in Europe. They have plans to expand their product line and enter the North American market this year. In China, a place where Playboy has a large market presence, Men's grooming is one of the fastest growing categories and an area that Playboy is not in today. They are planning on entering this market in the near future with Playboy branded skincare and grooming products.
SPAC Merger
Playboy has a DA with Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp, $MCAC, with the shareholder vote taking place THIS TUESDAY 2/9/21. Once it's approved, the ticker will change to PLBY shortly after. One of the great things about this deal is that there are absolutely no warrants outstanding, meaning there will be very little dilution. They only have 1/10th of a right per share outstanding which automatically convert to common stock. Upon completion of the merger, PLBY will have only 37 million shares outstanding, which is a very low float. Any increase in volume and demand will send the stock price higher.
After the merger, PLBY will have a market cap of approximately 413 million. For comparison to other global brands, Nike's market cap is 185 billion, Disney's is 329 billion, and Lululemon's is 45 billion. Now I'm not saying Playboy is near those companies today. However, if they continue growing and realize their potential, they're massively undervalued.
Additionally, the management team all signed 12-month lock ups, preventing them from selling for at least one year. This is not a transaction sale, but a true capital raise to accelerate growth. They are in this for the long haul.
Conclusion
Playboy has big growth opportunities in multiple product categories to become a leading consumer lifestyle brand. They have a high margin profitable business model and a very healthy balance sheet. They have 100 million in free cash right now and only 40 million in net debt, or one times 2021 adjusted ebitda. They already have global brand awareness and the bunny logo alone has tremendous value. Ceo Ben Kohn knows what he's doing and has a proven track record of success.
It might be flying under the radar right now because all the hype is surrounding GME and EV socks. I believe when the ticker changes to PLBY and people realize that Playboy is no longer what it used to be, this has huge long term upside.
FYI: All of the statistics I mentioned are directly taken from the CEO Ben Kohn in his 1 hour webinar interview with SpacInsider.
Disclosure: Long 500 commons $MCAC
Disclaimer: Do your own due diligence too

Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

Women's group warns of major sex trafficking if casino plan goes through

Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks removed it]

Let me explain what’s going on with wsb and the markets this week. Just because it’s relevant...

I’m not a market expert, I gamble in the markets and I’ve done pretty well...though I still consider myself oblivious to everything.
However, I think I can explain this in layman’s terms for anyone wondering what’s going on.
GameStop is obviously a video game retail store. Over the past five or six years, they have struggled keeping up with the digital age and online sales. Their reputation has been in the trash for a while, and pretty much everyone considered them the next Blockbuster a year or two ago.
So, because of this, hedge funds and big money billionaires start “shorting” Gamestops stock. “Shorting” a stock means to bet against the stock (if you short a stock, you think the price will go down) So big money was dragging Gamestops share price down 70-80% over the last few years, and they had GameStop sitting at around $4-8 a share at one point...meaning they successfully “shorted” the stock for years and netted themselves tens of billions of dollars in the process...the biggest short position was held by a hedge fund called Melvin Capital.
just to be clear, shorting the ever living shit out of a company is basically hoping the company goes bankrupt....tens out thousands of jobs are on the line here..at the absolute bare minimum
They were shorting GameStop so heavily either because they wanted to destroy them and put them out of business, or they wanted to drive the share price to pennies, scoop up 51% of the shares and orchestrate a hostile takeover of the company. These hedge funds have more money than all of us in the country combined. They have enough money to manipulate stock prices to where they want them so that they can come in and scoop up the shares at the price they want. They will push fake news stories, hit peices, target prices, etc all to manipulate the stock price. Everyone knows this, but everyone has basically accepted that the rich can get away with it.
Then covid came around. Covid absolutely completely demolished any retail box store. Everything was shut down, business came to a halt, and there wasn’t as much money flowing through stores like GameStop anymore.
So the bigwig Melvin Capital doubled down on their short positions. They wanted to completely drive GameStop into the ground. Hundreds of billions of dollars were placed on shorting GameStop.
Now let me get a little tiny bit more technical: when this guy shorts a stock, that involves him writing contracts called “calls” and selling them to people who want to take on the other side of his bet. When Melvin Capital sells a call, that contract represents 100 shares of GameStop...(this isn’t all exactly perfectly right, but for the sake of being easy to comprehend, ya know)
So Melvin Capital wrote hundreds of thousands of these contracts (each representing 100 shares) and the contracts basically said “I think GameStop will be below $20 by January 30” and he sold the contracts to anyone who thought that he was wrong. I think he said he sold these contracts for $18 each back over the summer. So back in July, if you thought GameStop would be over $20 by tomorrow, you would buy a contract (or 100,000 contracts) for $18 each. The higher the price goes up, the more money your call is worth. Once it gets to a price where you want to sell it, you can sell it to someone else.
But there’s another way to handle the contracts too...you can “execute” a contract. When you execute a contract, you are saying “okay, I won this bet, I want the 100 shares that my call represents.” So when that happens, the hedge fund who wrote the contracts and made all these bets with everyone has to go buy 100 shares (per contract) of GameStop at market price ($250 right now) and give them to the executor for $20 a share.
As you can see, if there are hundreds of thousands of these contracts out there, and everyone is executing them, this can cause massive problems for the hedge fund and any bank funding him with money.
Melvin Capital’s problem isn’t that he was short on GameStop, his problem was that he wrote so many contracts, that if you divvy all of them out, they account for 140% of Gamestops shares. Meaning, 40% of the contracts he wrote are representative of shares that don’t even exist.
If this doesn’t make sense, then you’re on the right page. This is fucking stupid—but it’s legal. And sadly, it’s normal.
So, this fund had an overleveraged short position on GameStop. Like wayyy overleveraged.
A user on Reddit, I won’t tag him here, you can find him if you look, saw this problem back in July and wanted to exploit it. He wanted to take on this hedge funds bets and call their bluff.
The theory became (again, this isn’t exactly right but for dummies) “if everyone can buy out the remaining shares of GameStop that actually exist, and just hold them, then we control the price of the shares that he has to pay when people execute their contracts.”
So people started buying these contracts for $18 each. People wanted GameStop to go over $20 a share so that they could win the trade against the hedge fund.
A couple of months later, Michael Burry (the guy The Big Short movie is based on) famous billionaire who called the 2008 crash also saw the same thing the kid on Reddit saw, so he invested $2 billion into GameStop in the fall.
Then another billionaire caught on and also invested around November....at this point, GameStop is trading $14 ish a share. But with these billionaires coming in to invest, a more positive vibe started gaining around GameStop
Add to the fact, GameStop hired all new board executives and came out with a worthy business plan for the future 6 months ago. They have a plan to stick around for a while.
So...this month the over leveraged short position kept making more and more airwaves around wsb and investment forums. People started believing in gamestops business plan and the two big billionaire investors joining in was a good catalyst to start moving the price upwards a few bucks...
The theory on Reddit became a thing...it was still kind of a meme at this point, but as hours passed, it became clear that this was actually going to be a thing. So as the math checked out, and it was spread around the internet, big names caught on and started talking about it.
Elon musk tweeted about it, millionaires started pouring money into it for a couple of hours, making bank, and donating it to charity just so they could go on the news and explain what was happening
Now, rewind a week from today, and let’s look back to these contracts really quick...they all expire on fridays. This Friday, (tomorrow) a lot of them expire. Meaning, his side of the contracts is going to be literally worthless unless GameStop goes back to under $20 a share—and as time goes on, more and more people are executing their calls, forcing him to buy millions of GameStop shares at $40 a share and sell them off for $20 a piece.
Then the hedge funds obviously started feeling the pain as contracts were getting executed and their side of the bet was losing massive value quickly. So they took to social media to start posting bullshit videos explaining why gamestops price will crash to $20 a share.
The first video, they announced was supposed to happen at noon on Inauguration Day. That morning, GameStop was up 5-10% and they tweeted “out of respect for president Biden, and the inauguration ceremony, we have decided not to share the video today”
The next day, they claimed they would release a 5-point video on why GameStop would go back to $20 a share. While this is being announced, GameStop shoots from $30-75 a share in minutes....that 5-point video never came.
This showed everyone that the hedge fund was backed into a corner and what everyone was doing was working. So shit became real. Everyone realized that the theory was working.
As it became more and more clear, twitter, Instagram, Tiktok, YouTube, etc all joined in on the action. People got their grandma to sign up and buy a share of GameStop. Wsb users put advertisements on channels like Mr Beast telling people to buy GameStop. Everyone and their mommas were buying a share of GameStop just to “stick it to the man”..even the intellectually challenged Facebook people started getting in on the action. It became a form of activism, from both sides, almost a type of Occupy Wall Street movement. But instead of blocking the corrupt billionaires paths to work in the morning, we just all ganged up together and beat them at their own rigged game—they’ve lost over $90 billion on this one trade alone so far. We broke them this week, and they don’t know what to do about it. And the best part is, the worst is supposed to be far from here.
Wsb figured out that if they literally ask for $1000-5000 a share for their shares and not sell until that point, it’s totally possible for it to get there. That’s why Robinhood and all these banks are playing dirty today
When Elon tweeted a couple days ago and GameStop shot from like $90 all the way to $220 overnight. Now, the hedge fund is forced to buy shares for $220 and sell them to people for $20...this is why the .0001% and Robinhood are squirming right now.
A major hedge fund got caught with their pants down and got beat at their own game one single time. Now they aren’t happy about it.
So, the bank that funds Melvin Capital is called Citadel. Citadel is losing a shitload of money off of Melvin Capitals trade as well as Melvin Capital. Citadel also owns Robinhood. The money you get from Robinhood comes from Citadel....you see where I’m going with this??
A lot of Melvin Capital’s calls expire tomorrow. People will be executing those contracts like crazy. They need to be able to find enough shares to account for all the contracts that was executed—this could be rough considering there’s more shares within the contracts than there are actual shares. So conspiracy tells me that we can’t buy those shares so that Melvin Capital will be able to cover his ass tomorrow.
Citadel probably told Robinhood to stop selling GameStop today. At this point, a class action lawsuit will cost fifty times less than losing this trade.
Edits: fixed grammar and words and stuff

10 Stocks to Invest your $2000 Stimulus on

Once again, the Calvary comes to the rescue. Americans can now heave a sigh of relief after months of having to watch their fate hang in the balance as both Democrats and Republicans sparred over stimulus. After foot-dragging and name-calling for several months, Congress decided to approve a $600 stimulus package. However, the incoming Biden administration has promised an additional $1,400 making the total of $2000 in stimulus to be received by Americans.
As expected, some of that money would find its way into the stock market. The explosion of retail trading made possible by apps such as Robinhood and Etoro has meant that more people can trade in stocks for zero or little commission. Flush with cash from the government, people are trying to the stock market to increase their money.
Based on the prevailing macro-economic conditions, financial valuation, and social trends, we have compiled a list of stocks you should be spending your $2000 stimmy on.
DraftKings
As more states become amiable towards online gambling, one of the stocks which would benefit from expected legislation would be DraftKings. The expanding legalization of digital sports betting is an emerging trend. The November election results showed voters in several states largely approved ballot measures that legalized sports betting and other gaming expansion measures.
On the revenue side, DraftKings saw a 98% year-over-year surge to $132.8 million in the latest quarter, reported on Nov. 13. In the quarter, the company raised its full-year 2020 revenue range to $540 million-$560 million, which equates to 25%-30% annual revenue growth.
DraftKings also introduced 2021 revenue guidance of $750 million to $850 million, which equates to 45% year-over-year growth using the midpoints. The resumption of major sports such as the NBA, MLB, and the NHL in the third quarter, as well as the start of the NFL season, has generated tremendous customer engagement and revenue which implies that this stock would definitely see some significant upside.
Square
2020 was a very good year for Square. The company’s share price soared above 250% last year and was one of the pandemic winners in the market. Given the company’s fundamentals, Square's stock price will repeat the type of growth it saw in 2020. The services that Square provides -- particularly its Cash App, which allows people to send and receive money without physical contact -- have become more necessary during these times of social distancing and working from home. Revenue for the Cash App was up a whopping 574% year over year in the third quarter.
The company is also invested in bitcoin having out in seed capital in acquiring bitcoin. With bitcoin estimated to cross the $40,000 mark and possibly running as far as $146,000, this would shore up the company’s reserves.
GM
One reason why investors have been wary of the EV sector is the mounting debt and huge cash burn. This has made investors question the profitability of stocks in the electric vehicle space. With more EV stocks coming through the market through SPACS, investors are already mulling the idea that this may be a bubble. However, one company that many believe to have potential in the EV space is GM. Apart from having the infrastructure necessary to build cars, the company is can leverage its brand to ensure loyalty from customers. In addition, while other EV stocks such as Tesla and NIO may be fully stretched, share prices of General Motors are cheap, plus the company is been raking in profits.
In November, GM announced it plans to invest $27 billion in EV and autonomous vehicles through 2025. GM also plans to release 30 EV models globally by 2025. For comparison, Tesla currently has exactly four EV models. Earlier this week, the company signed a deal with Microsoft for its autonomous vehicles. GM continues to execute well on its Core and Future businesses and remains one of the best-positioned companies in our coverage over the long run. The stock is a good buy for the long haul.
AMD
As the digitalization of the world continues at an astronomic pace, microchips would continue to play a more prominent role. Already, there is a shortage of chips worldwide which means demand and prices would surge. One company poised to benefit from this growing demand is AMD. The company has managed to chip away at Intel's CPU dominance thanks to its superior product line, which is based on a smaller manufacturing node, allowing it to deliver better computing performance and reduce power consumption. The use of chips would continue to grow as more people are drawn to cryptocurrency mining, online gaming, and data center storage. AMD was one of the biggest winners in2020, and the trend is expected to continue well into this year. It is also one stock that may not be affected by the rotation into value as microchips would continue to be in demand.
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor is a dedicated foundry that manufactures semiconductors for other companies. It aims to lead in both semiconductor technology and manufacturing, providing an open collaboration platform to build enduring trust with its customers.
The core strategy of Taiwan Semiconductor is its flexible business model. TSM does not need to design its own chips and prove its performance against the competitors; it only has to provide the technology and base for producers looking to make the best and fastest chips suited to their products' needs. By maintaining high-quality manufacturing processes and offering a collaborative platform to its customers, Taiwan Semiconductor ensures that it caters to producers across the spectrum even as technology rapidly evolves.
The company has experienced strong growth: From 2015 to 2019, net revenue increased by a solid 26.9%, while net income increased 12.7%. However, as smart technology has become ever more central to lives the company's growth has begun to heat up. In Q3 2020, the company boosted its net revenue by 21.6% year over year, while net income increased by 35.9%.
ETSY
Etsy provides an online e-commerce platform where creators of arts and crafts, vintage items, and other unique goods go to sell their products. Etsy has something that many high-growth companies don't -- a profitable business model. It boasts a trailing-12-month operating margin of 16%, making this unique online marketplace a buy today even at its premium valuation. It has outmaneuvered eBay (EBAY), avoided the Amazon (AMZN) crush, and dodged competition from Overstock.com (OSTK) and Wayfair (W).
When it reported third-quarter results on Oct. 28, Etsy reported a 128% leap in revenue to $451 million, well above Wall Street estimates of $412.7 million. Adjusted earnings came in at 70 cents, vs. estimates of 57 cents. In addition, gross merchandise sales jumped 119% to $2.6 billion.
Sunpower
Interest in renewable energy sources has soared immensely and continues to rise with each passing day. Two key forces are behind this surge: Increased awareness and urgency to address climate change, and falling costs of generation using renewables. Among renewable sources, solar energy looks most promising, due to its more predictable generation pattern. Solar's share in electricity generation is expected to rise from roughly 3% currently to more than 20% by 2050. SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) is one stock poised to benefit from these trends.
With a huge government push, California leads the way in solar adoption. Still, only 9% of homes in California have solar installations, representing a huge untapped market. In the new homes segment, SunPower has headway, having already worked with 18 of the top 20 builders in California. The company captures more than half of California's new homes market.
Its low-cost model positions it well to compete on pricing. The company can leverage its vast customer base to sell its storage products. Moreover, its leading position in the commercial and California's new homes market provide SunPower an edge over others in these segments.
PLUG
Plug power provides hydrogen fuel cell turnkey solutions to electric mobility and stationary power markets. The company continues innovating end-to-end hydrogen fuel solutions by harnessing its unique capabilities and is the largest buyer of liquid hydrogen in North America.
Though the company has not posted any profit, many hedge funds are bullish on the stock, with analysts having high recommendations. The company’s $1.5bn deal with South Korean conglomerate SK Group into American hydrogen company has certainly drawn a lot of attention, with many investors gauging the company’s profitability.
Plug Power’s core business is providing fuel cell-powered forklifts for commercial customers. However, it has expanded to hydrogen production following its acquisition of two hydrogen companies.
These acquisitions expand the plug’s addressable market which has already exceeded $30 billion. The resulting vertical integration of the acquisitions makes Plug Power an even stronger company as can now provide the hydrogen that powers its vehicles.
This definitely allows Plug to leverage on its already existing customer base which includes some of the best companies in the country. Plug Power raised its 2024 guidance to $1.2 billion in revenue and $200 million in operating income. Shares of PLUG have risen by 111% in the last month.
Tesla
Returning to the green-energy theme, Tesla is one stock that has significant upside. The company is positioned to benefit from the clean energy drive of the Biden administration. Apart from that, Tesla is the leader in its sector and continues to increase its delivery numbers. Tesla is now the most valuable auto company in the world. It has recently surpassed Facebook (FB) by market capitalization. The stock has recently received upgrades from analysts and if the EV market continues to evolve, Tesla would continue to be in the pole position, which gives it significant market share and of course revenue.
GrowGeneration Corp.
For those looking at balance sheets and income statements, GrowGeneration Corp is one highly profitable marijuana stock to watch in 2021. The company has the largest chain of specialty hydroponic and organic garden centers in the U.S. with 36 storefront locations. In essence, the company supplies products necessary for growing cannabis and works closely with major marijuana companies in the U.S. market.
Shares of Grow Generation returned a whopping 880.98% in 2020, posting the fastest-growing quarterly results in the industry. It is expected that the company would continue its momentum this year. The shares of the company have so far risen by 20% this year.
Additionally, the company continued strategic acquisition and expansion plans in the quarter, giving GrowGen more growth potential for 2021. It was easily one of the best performing cannabis stocks for 2020. In essence, GRWG stock showed greater market stability than other pot stocks in the U.S. in 2020.
Thanks for reading!
Checkout Afroxyz's page for more.

Not just another HITI / HITIF post... Serious DD incl. valuation analysis

Porn is a new type of drug that is injected into the brain through the eyes

Entering the 21st century, we have completely entered the era of pornography. Pornography began to flood in the late 1990s. At that time, it was disc spread. Many people could find pornography at home. Later, the new millennium entered the Internet age. , Pornographic content spread more severely, became more widespread, and it is still free to browse. Later, when we entered the era of smartphones, it was easier to browse pornography than to find stones on the ground. In our country, pornographic content is illegal, while in foreign countries, certain pornographic websites are even legal, which exacerbates the proliferation of pornographic content. However, foreign countries have also realized the great harm of pornography in recent years. They call pornography the new drug. (New types of drugs). There are many rebooting websites and rebooting books abroad, and our country also needs to pay attention to this aspect.
On the surface, cocaine and pornography do not have much in common, but more and more studies have shown that chemical drugs can induce the brain to release exciting chemicals, and watching pornography has the same effect.
Just like drugs, when these exciting chemicals (such as dopamine and oxytocin) are delivered to the brain, they build a new pathway in the brain. This pathway can fundamentally induce porn users to browse pornographic information. When the brain pathways are activated by pornographic information, the brain can release chemicals at the same level as when viewing pornographic information for the first time. This process is similar to the process of drug addiction. Porn is injected into the brain through an eye. drug!
To equate pornography with drugs is the latest scientific research abroad. This understanding is correct. Thinking about the state of looking for pornography, it is really like a drug addict looking for drugs. Studies have shown that watching pornography can cause your brain to release the same pleasure chemicals as cocaine. When drug addicts take more drugs or porn viewers watch more pornography, the neural circuits in their brains will become stronger, making it easier for them to take drugs or watch porn again, whether they want it or not. content. Just as addicts will eventually need more and more drugs to get pleasure, or even just to make themselves feel normal, sex addicts will quickly develop tolerance when they get used to watching the large amounts of dopamine released by pornography. In other words, even if pornography can still make the brain release dopamine, they can't be as cool as usual.
Like drugs, the more stimulus, the more boring afterwards. You must look for heavier flavors and more excitement to achieve the pleasure of tasting the forbidden fruit before. Many people have become psychologically perverted afterwards, and their sexual orientation has also been distorted. Watching pornographic masturbation will bring a series of evil consequences, which will make people fall into a vicious circle. At first, sexual orientation was normal. Later, in order to stimulate dopamine secretion, I would look at abnormalities. As my psychology became more and more abnormal, my sexual orientation began to be distorted, and I would learn to imitate the contents of pornographic films.
It is estimated that there are 2 million heroin users in the United States, and 600 to 800,000 of these people are heavily addicted to heroin. Compared with the above data, 40 million people in the United States watch online pornography every day-this new type of drug. The reason why Internet pornography is a new type of drug is that the brain responds to drugs and sexual arousal in the same parts. Pornography is really a kind of drug. As a 100 billion-dollar neuro-drug industry, pornography is changing people’s concept of sexual behavior more rapidly through the accelerated development of the Internet. Pornographic information is pervasive on the Internet, and it inhibits people’s sexuality. The normal view of orientation leads people to a state of evil, perverted, indecent, and irresponsible beasts.
Imagine that the brain is a forest. Hikers pass by the same place day after day and gradually step out of the way. Browsing pornographic information will also generate neural circuits. As people browse pornographic content again and again, these neural circuits will be continuously strengthened in the "forest" of the brain, and these neural circuits will eventually become paths in the "forest" of the brain. "Thanks to" the Internet, current pornography mixes the most powerful dopamine that the body can release and many other elements-endless novelties, shocks and surprises-all of which will stimulate the release of dopamine in large quantities. And because Internet pornography provides endless content, users can move to new images (postures, costumes, heroines, etc.) every time their pleasure declines to keep dopamine at high levels for a few hours. Professor Jeffrey Satinover of Princeton University described the effects of pornography to the U.S. Senate committee: "It's like a heroin we invented. Users can use it secretly in their homes and inject them directly into the brain through their eyes."
The American Addiction Medicine Association used to believe that addiction is mainly a behavior. Recently, inspired by the new brain science community, the American Addiction Medicine Association redefines "addiction"-a brain disease related to the neural reward system. The powerful influence of Internet pornography on the neural reward system is clearly in line with the new definition of addiction. Dr. Hilton believes that the impact of pornographic images on the natural brain reward system is unique. Unlike the rewards brought about by food or doing other things, the rewards brought by watching pornographic images can lead to "continuous changes related to nerve synapses and plasticity." In other words, Internet pornography not only stimulates the increase of dopamine levels in the brain, and thus produces pleasure. It also literally changes the physical organization inside the brain, so that new neural pathways crave pornographic information to trigger the desired sense of reward.
Pornography is a mixed drug. It triggers two addictive chemicals in the brain by causing excitement (the "hi" feeling caused by dopamine) and creating orgasm (the "relaxing" effect of drugs). This mixing mechanism makes pornography more likely to become addictive and easier to develop tolerance. The tolerance of pornography requires not only larger doses, but also more novelty in content, such as more taboo behaviors.
Although the effects of Internet pornography are similar to the combination of chemical addictions, the effects of Internet pornography exceed those of chemical substances.
For example, the "mirror neurons" in the brain give us the ability to learn: observe a behavior and imitate it. Professor Struthers wrote that because of mirror neurons, “watching pornographic videos creates a neural experience by which the viewer indirectly participates in what he sees.” This unique interactive addiction through The dual stimulation of the brain and the body is realized. In the words of Professor Strathurs, "Pornography involves visual mechanisms (watching movies), motor mechanisms (masturbation), sensory mechanisms (genital stimulation), and the neurological effects of excitement and orgasm (caused by addictive dopamine). Excitement)".
The study of the brain confirms such a serious fact: pornography is a drug release system, which has obvious and powerful effects on the human brain and nervous system. As Dr. Deutch pointed out, "Those who watch porn are unaware of the extent to which pornography reshapes their brains." Indeed, they do not know that pornography is "creating new neural circuits in their brains."
Research on nerves has revealed that Internet pornography has a powerful effect on the brain. Its effect is as powerful as cocaine and heroin, which are addictive substances. In a statement to the U.S. Congress, psychiatrist and former Yale psychiatrist Dr. Jeffery warned the public: With the advent of the information age, the addictive stimulation of Internet pornography has become almost irresistible. We seem to have created an unprecedented substance that is 100 times more powerful than heroin. Internet pornography can be watched privately at home, it is directly "injected" into the brain through both eyes!
In 2014, a research paper published in the Journal of the American Medical Association-Psychiatry stated that frequent viewing of pornographic pictures can make the brain slow to respond to sexual stimulation. German scientists point out that this means that the brain needs more dopamine to feel the same degree of "orgasm", which leads to the search for more pornographic images. "Psychology" magazine once published a paper saying that these dopamine surges mean that people who watch pornographic pictures need more tasteful sexual perceptions and experiences to arouse sexual desire. German scientists believe that viewing pornographic pictures may cause brain shrinkage, and the more you look at them, the more severe the brain striatum area associated with rewards and stimulation. This is the first time scientists have discovered that viewing pornographic pictures is directly related to physical injury. In addition, scientists also found that the more time spent watching pornographic pictures, the more different the brain, the more you watch, the deeper the addiction. In 2013, researchers at the University of Cambridge found that when people addicted to pornographic pictures watch pornographic pictures or videos, the "drug addiction" area of the brain glows in a brain scan. When young people who are addicted to Internet pornography browse pornographic pictures, their brains will "glisten like a Christmas tree with colorful lights." In the brains of people addicted to pornographic images, these areas responsible for processing rewards, stimulation, and pleasure are exactly the same as the highly stimulated areas in the brains of drug addicts and alcohol addicts.
Research shows that among all forms of online entertainment (such as gambling, games, surfing the Internet, social networks), pornography has the strongest tendency to become addictive. When pornographic images enter the brain, it will induce the reward center to start stimulating dopamine, which triggers a flood of chemical components, including a protein called DeltaFosB. Usually the role of DeltaFosB is to create new neural pathways to connect with what you are doing (viewing pornography) and pleasure. With the repeated overload of dopamine, viewers become numb to those scenes, and they often find that they cannot feel normal when there is no high release of dopamine. Some people say that they feel nervous or negative until they regain pornography. As they sink deeper and deeper into this abyss of vices, they will become more and more flavorful. Many people who try their best to get rid of this bad habit say that they find it hard to stop.
Like any substance with addictive potential, pornography induces the release of dopamine into the "reward center" part of the brain (also known as the reward channel or system). The reason why pornography is a behavior that aggravates the degree of psychological distortion is because as some pornographic viewers' tolerance increases, the scenes that have excited them become boring. It can be expected that they will often spend longer watching pornography, seeking more heavy-tasting themes, and trying to regain their previous excitement, as a compensation for the boredom caused by old themes. Many watching People find that sharp themes such as violence are permeating their sexual fantasies and habits.
The content of pornography and the way people interact with it have undergone dramatic changes in the past few decades. Internet pornography has the following six characteristics.
(1) Free of charge. People who watch pornography can browse pornography for free on the Internet. In the past, they had to go out to buy discs and books.
(2) Easy to obtain. People can easily access pornographic content through the Internet. Nowadays, most of them have mobile phones, and the Internet is more convenient.
(3) Freshness. In the past, pornographic resources were relatively single, and it was easy to get bored. Internet pornography has many options and can provide continuous freshness.
(4) Large amount of resources. There are huge amounts of pornographic resources on the Internet, and there are dozens of gigabytes or even hundreds of gigabytes in the hard disks of many prostitutes.
(5) Diversified locations. In the past, you could only watch it at home, but now you have a mobile phone and you can watch it everywhere, which increases the possibility of watching pornography.
(6) Easy to carry. Drop it into your mobile phone, mobile hard drive or laptop, and you can take it with you.

Did you know all gambling in RDO Is still banned in countries where it's actually legal?

Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks deleted it]

I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! Hope this is OK for the mods here?
--
This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview

High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:

Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more

Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post

Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:

Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:

The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.

Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’

Regulation

High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening

Demand

There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy

Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis

Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation

Data

Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this

Forecasts financials & analysts

Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management

https://preview.redd.it/5pwznbe5xmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb1be853d9db5eaa7dc3c7b26630a173bbd064cf
Valuation

Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive

https://preview.redd.it/l52oajp6xmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=e31e1944101c6488a24f470bc3b91744f4c2dccf

Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis

https://preview.redd.it/2j51fwigxmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=f678c5c66ced846ac45fa698c7e454f71a4232b6
NB – assumed the following:

Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones

Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation

US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier

Dilution

No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price

https://preview.redd.it/t0im6idhxmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bff366e68eeeadd5ac49ab5d97885685a327a6b
Potentially misleading cost basis information

A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess

Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses

Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more

If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw

The last hangover. Is it okay to play video games? Is it a normal or close to normal chemical cascade?

Stock Market News for Today | NIO Stock News | DKNG, PENN & other Stock Market News [01-11]

Stocks finish at all time highs to close out the first trading week of 2021. What is my opinion on the NIO stock after their latest event? DraftKings & PENN soar after the latest New York developments, let’s talk about this and other stock market news
~Very Long Post~
Hello everyone and Good Morning! So, let’s start with the recap of Friday as we saw the Nasdaq Composite leading the way up over 1% and finished the week 2.4% up, the broad stock market SP500 also gaining more than half a percent on Friday and 1.8% for the week while the Dow Jones rose by 56 points and finished 1.6% higher in the first week of 2021, with all 3 big indexes finishing at new all-time highs. We also saw the VIX dropping below 22 again, despite a mid-day spike, as the volatility index dropped more than 23% since the high on Tuesday.
We saw an average DAY of trading to close out the week, with average volume and an almost equal number of companies that were advancing compared to the declining ones, as 7 of the 11 SECTORS finished in the green, with consumer Discretionary & Real Estate Leading the way, while the more value heavy industries lagged. For the week though, Energy outperformed, rising by more than 9%, Technology finished flat despite a very bad start to the week after the Georgia election and Real Estate lagged behind, losing 2.5% for the week, as we saw Large-Cap growth companies outperform on Friday, but in this fresh 2021, small & mid-caps have outperformed.
Here is the HEAT MAP from Friday, with big gainers coming mostly in the consumer cyclicals, with Tesla, Alibaba & MercadoLibre posting big gains, while the biggest losers were in the gold industry.
In THIS short year though, we can see the huge outperformance of the Energy Sector, the Banks and some other names like Tesla & TSM.
We also got some economic data, with the latest Redfin report showing a 13% increase in home sale PRICES over 2020, as ACTIVE listings of homes for sales keeps on dropping. The listings have seen a 32% decrease since last year to a new all-time low, though, the average sale to list PRICE ratio finally declined to 99.3%, as the housing market was red hot since June.
While December nonfarm payroll declined by 140K, worse than then 75k gains expected and is the first month since April that brings jobs losses with most of the JOBS losses coming from the leisure and hospitality business which has been hit hard again, losing almost half a million jobs, while the unemployment rate did inch lower to 6.7%.
So, this week pretty much starts of the EARNINGS season again, with the most interesting ones for me being, Aphria as a read on the cannabis sector, Delta Airlines for a read on how the Airlines are recovering and JP Morgan on Friday, while on the economic front we will see a lot of interesting DATA, mostly starting on Wednesday with the Consumer price index and the Federal Budget, while we continue these with the jobless claims on Thursday and more numbers about the economy on Friday.
This week we will also have some IPOs with the most interesting coming from Affirm Holdings, while I really expect to see what Biden SAYS on Thursday as this may be key to a further stimulus or fiscal package.
So, NIO DAY came and left me with rather somewhat of a disappointment, though I don’t expect most investors to really look at this, so they will probably jump on the stock again this week, so here is a quick recap of what they announced and what is my opinion on NIO:
They announced the first flagship sedan mode, the ET7 which will be AVAILABLE in 2 trim levels with 70 or 100KW battery starting from around $70K and $78K, but the good thing about NIO, and their main competitive advantage is the battery as a service. So, they will make this new sedan available for the same price with either battery pack if you do use the BAAS model at a price of $58K.
They also announced the next gen battery swap stations that can do over 300swaps/day, more than 3x the capability of the current one, as they also plan to build another 400 stations that would bring them to a total of almost 600 by the end of the year.
The “new battery technology” that they announced was the actual thing that disappointed me. So, they announced a 150KW battery with a claimed range of over 600miles, but that should be in perfect conditions, so expect the actual range to be somewhere in 400mile range, pretty much in line with Tesla’s current capabilities. The Launch DATE for the car is still only Q1 2022 while for the “New Solid-State battery” the timeline is for it to be available by the end of 2022. So, the bad thing is that everything is still at least 1 year away and we have to see if the claimed range for the new battery is real.
And there are a couple of big warning signs here with the new battery technology, they actually avoided saying they designed, created or engineered this new tech battery, by saying they will ADOPT this new technology. So, it seems they will adopt this new technology from their current battery supplier CATL. This is an issue as this battery will be available to other manufacturers like Hyundai, Mercedes BMW will get their hands on, so this will not actually be something innovative, ground-breaking or a proprietary solution.
Also, I don’t know how big this new Sedan thing is, because the Sedan market is really dying around the world. This new ET7 isn’t competition for TESLA 3, it’s targeted for competition against the model S, which is already a dying segment as you can see from Tesla’s SALES.
But on some more positive news, they did announce something better in my opinion, with their Self-Driving Feature, INCLUDING11 8megapixel cameras, as their collaboration with Nvidia will produce a super-computer that will generate up to 8Gigabyte/s of data, with the Nvidia CORE estimated to be 7x better than Tesla’s current computer. Though THIS doesn’t have an official release date and will probably come with the ET7 next year, so, another disappointment as this comp against Tesla will not be a huge advantage once Tesla does upgrade their computers as well.
So, for short the main competitive advantages that NIO has right now are that they use the subscription model for both the battery swap technology and for the full-self driving feature which costs around $100/month. This is are very good and smart recurring revenue streams, as they make the entry price for the car much lower and also provide a stable flow of revenues. But… I am disappointed in the “new battery technology” and have to wait for more developments. If this is a common technology that will be used by other car manufacturers, this is effectively not that big of a deal, but if somehow this is their own technology, that would possibly have better implications for the company. So, guys, I own both Tesla & NIO, and I think I might hold off right now on buying any more due to different factors. I think that Tesla has a good future, but this huge run-up has made it a good target for 10-20% correction at any point in the short-term future, while for NIO I expect this to rise in the next couple of days, and I am waiting for it to cool off a little before adding any more to my position. So, yeah, short-term I think both of them have some downside risk, but in the long run, I expect Tesla to trade at over $1000 and NIO to trade over $100.
In some other stock market NEWS, we saw gambling stocks like DraftKings and PENN rising on Friday after New York filed bills to legalize online betting in the state. DraftKings also just announced they will bring new stuff like drone racing betting, which is mind-blowing, that they are extending into such things. This is a continuing trend in the US and should be watched for future developments, as gambling will be legalized pretty much all over the US in the near future I believe, and I also expect this sector to be joined by the pot SECTOR, even if it’s really hard to believe there will be a nationwide bill to legalize it, I expect there will be some improvements for the sector, and companies like Aphria which are closer to profitability should benefit from this.
On some more sad new, we also saw a 27-year-old Boeing plane crash in Indonesia, this is very sad news, but as the stock market goes, this issue seems to be unrelated to Boeing right now. Indonesia has seen the most deaths in the past decades, with over 104 accidents, as this country is known for bad maintenance, pilot training and air-traffic controls problems.
And don’t forget, as I said in my earlier posts, don’t jump on these high-flying small cap stocks at all-time highs, this is a very good moment for this companies to raise cheap capital by issuing shares, with the latest example being BLNK.
So, let’s hope for a good day in the markets and the US FUTURES are pointing to a bad open right now, with all 3 big index futures down, as the DOW futures are down over 200 points
🙏Thank you everyone for reading!🙏 Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time❗

online gambling legal countries video

Online gambling is one such sport that has taken the world by storm. Daily internet surfing can make you come across a number of advertisements about online casinos. However, it... Gibraltar and Malta are two European countries which called “tax paradise” for online gambling games as there are no limits for its development. Malta was the first country that regulated the law of online gambling. Nowadays the popular online casinos, poker rooms, and betting offices use the licenses of this country. Some other countries with legal online gambling include Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, and Sweden. However, some countries in Europe have legal in-person gambling but illegal online gambling, such as France and Iceland. However, when the country legalized online gambling, a new regulatory authority known as the French Autorité Nationale de Jeux-ARJEL (the National Gaming Authority) was formed to oversee the fast-expanding eGaming sector. ARJEL regulates the online gambling space in France through the issuance of operation licenses. The enactment of the French Gambling Act of 2010 was a turning point in the country’s journey towards a transparent and fair gambling market. 32 countries allow online gambling only with the local license. For example, Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, the UK, the Netherlands etc. 28 countries prohibit locals from gambling and block sites of local gambling operators. However, foreign platforms can work freely, even if they have no license. These states are either unwilling or are not able to prevent them. For example, Australia, Brazil, New Zealand, Mexico, Japan, Singapore, Nigeria, etc. Canadian gambling laws are ambiguous but in general, they allow you to act freely in an online gambling universe. Countries like Argentina, Panama, and Peru have made online gambling legal, so there are a few south-American safe havens left after all. Gambling in Spain is legal. For most Spanish citizens, online gaming is an incredible pastime. Spain boasts of a well-recognized and flourishing gambling market across the globe thanks to a set of rules and regulations that make gambling great for players and casino service providers. Major countries with legal online gambling are Egypt, Kenya, Botswana, Cameron, Ghana, Morocco, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Uganda, and the South African Republic. In a webinar last week by Keith Whyte, executive director of the Washington, D.C.-based National Council on Problem Gambling … Pennsylvania online gambling has reached biggest success within public, promoting numerous events and games. It is 100% legal and secure. If Vegas is mecca for rich people, spending thousands on hotel, planes and restaurants, we can call PA online gambling is a starting point for everyone. No matter how luxurious your clothes are, no matter in what town you live and how you look, there's a ... Gambling in the UK, although quite heavily regulated, is generally seen as a fun pastime; other countries don’t have quite the same relaxed attitude. In some parts of the world, land-based casinos are officially outlawed and online gambling is banned, largely due to religious reasons or moral directives.

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Illegal online gambling under the spotlight

Legal Online Gambling? Online gambling laws jurisdictions by different regions. Various forms of online gambling are legal and regulated in many countries, including some provinces... The Department of Justice now considers online gambling and sports betting between the states illegal. But with the sports leagues, gambling companies and a ... www.BettingOnlineSite.info, Is Online Gambling Legal in the United States, Top 30 Casinos Online, What is a Sports Book, American Football Vegas Betting Line... Did Rockstar really block over 50 countries from their new Diamond Casino & Resort update? Subscribe to IGN for more! http://www.youtube.com/user/IGNentertai... Sports betting, online gambling legal in Michigan Online gambling and online casino in India are still under a gray zone. Learn in this video if you can gamble online without breaking the Constitutional laws... It is also confirmed that some countries you cannot gamble in Gta 5. The reason that rockstar did this is because some countries gambling are forbidden like Thailand. Or it is illegal. Online Gambling came under the spotlight at the recently held National Gambling Conference. This as revenue generated by the legal gambling industry is increasingly being eroded by online and ... We all love to play games and have been doing them since childhood. Be it video games or playing games with your friends everyone loves to play them in the l...

Countries Out Of the EU That Allow Legal Online Gambling ...

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